Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Optimization in Complex Operations Jouni Pousi Supervisors: Prof. Raimo P. Hämäläinen Dr. Tech. Kai Virtanen Systems Analysis Laboratory Aalto University School of Science and Technology jouni. pousi@tkk. fi 1

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Complex Operations § Operation environment – Uncertainties – High number of dependencies § Multiple criteria § Systems perspective § Examples – Effects-based operations (military), health care, marketing. . . § Modeling and analysis approaches in thesis – Multi-criteria influence diagrams – Simulation metamodeling 2

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Multi-Criteria Influence Diagrams System of an Operation § System modeling – Interdependencies, uncertainties, dynamics § Multi-criteria evaluation of actions – Sensitivity analysis § EBOLATOR decision support tool for planning of effects-based operations § Master’s thesis . . . Actions Criteria – Pousi, J. , Decision Analytical Approach to Effects-Based Operations § Manuscript in preparation – Pousi J. , Virtanen K. , Hämäläinen R. P. , How to Benefit from Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Effects-Based Operations 3

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Simulation Metamodeling § Surrogate models used to simplify analysis of data from complex simulations – e. g. , game theoretic metamodeling – See presentation of Poropudas § Manuscript submitted for publication – Pousi, J. , Poropudas, J. , Virtanen, K. , Game Theoretic Simulation Metamodeling Using Stochastic Kriging (conference) § Manuscript in preparation – Poropudas, J. , Pousi, J. , Virtanen, K. , Simulation Metamodeling with Multi-Criteria Influence Diagrams 4