Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Probability Elicitation for Bayesian Networks Pekka Laitila Supervisors Prof. Raimo P. Hämäläinen, Docent Kai Virtanen Systems Analysis Laboratory Aalto University School of Science and Technology elaitila@cc. hut. fi 1

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Background § Military applications of Bayesian networks – Battle damage assessment » Support the decision of a restrike in combat – Centre of gravity analysis » Find the crucial elements of the enemy system to be impacted on § Potential theme of the master’s thesis – Probability elicitation for Bayesian networks/ influence diagrams 2

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Fi. NCOGNET § Decision support tool for centre of gravity analysis § Construction of Bayesian networks by Ge. NIe § What if -analysis – Instantiate selected nodes – Update distributions of other nodes => Identification of the crucial nodes (elements) 3

Aalto University School of Science and Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory Current Focus in Probability Elicitation Techniques § Literature review – Direct probability scale – Gamble, probability wheel – Weighting of parent nodes, AHP – Sensitivity analysis – Etc. § Prospective contributions of the master’s thesis – Comparison of the elicitation techniques – Utilization of sensitivity analysis in elicitation – Utilization of interval probabilities in elicitation 4