A Slow Loss of Northern Forest Icons Dynamics

A Slow Loss of Northern Forest Icons: Dynamics of Boreal Birds at the Edge of Their Range in the Adirondack Park Michale Glennon Paul Smith’s College Adirondack Watershed Institute Steve Langdon Shingle Shanty Preserve and Research Station

Target Species Bay-breasted warbler Rusty blackbird Three-toed woodpecker Lincoln’s sparrow Olive-sided flycatcher Cape May warbler Black-backed woodpecker Boreal chickadee Canada jay Palm warbler Photos: J. Nadler, A. Dettling Tennessee warbler Yellow-bellied flycatcher

Boreal Habitats in the Adirondacks • Northern Peatland – Boreal-Laurentian Bog, Boreal-Laurentian Acadian Acidic Basin Fen • Northern Swamp – Laurentian-Acadian Alkaline Conifer-Hardwood Swamp, Laurentian. Acadian Large River Floodplain, Northern Appalachian-Acadian Conifer-Hardwood Acidic Swamp • Boreal Upland Forest – Acadian Low Elevation Spruce-Fir Hardwood Forest, Acadian Sub-boreal Spruce Flat

Findings: General Trends

Findings: Drivers • Persistence higher in • Larger, more connected wetlands • Sites with low levels of human impact • Response to climate change? • Not sure, but we were looking at proxy variables

What is the role of climate in influencing recent trends in boreal bird occupancy? Can we identify refugia?

Climate • Mean, variability, extremes in – Breeding and winter season temperature – Breeding and winter season precipitation

Climate: Broad Patterns Breeding Season Precip Winter Precip Means vs Extremes Breeding vs Winter Breeding Season Temp vs Precip* Colonization vs Persistence Winter Temp Negative Persistence Positive Colonization

Trajectorie s of Change Can we characterize the pace and type of change in these communities? Can we identify refugia? Courtesy of ian. umces. edu

Community Level Change Boreal, forest interior, scrubland, Neotropical migrants, blackbirds, flycatchers, shrub nesters Forest generalists, insectivores, cavity nesters, southern species, commensals, species with widespread winter distribution

Can We Identify Refugia? Competition Habitat Type Climate Stability What distinguishes sites with high, medium, and low levels of extinction of boreal species?

Persistence of Boreal Species Highest at • Sites with low colonization rates for commensal and southern species • Sites with lowest deviation from normal winter precipitation patterns • Sites dominated by Northern Peatland – large open bogs

Climate: Caveat Tmin is 2° C colder Tmean is 1° C warmer Tmax is 3. 5° C warmer

What does a perfect site look like? • Brendan Wiltse Abundant Open Peatland • Large, connected • High Latitude • Low Elevation • Low Human Footprint • Few Human-Adapted Species • Stable Winter Precipitation • Warm, dry? •

Acknowledgements • NYSDEC • Brian Mc. Allister, Brian Keelan, Valerie Stein, • USGS – Northeast Climate Melanie Mc. Cormack, Gary Science Center Lee, Fuat Latif, Evan • Northern New York Obercian, Nick Laviola, Audubon Society – Chad Seewagen, Quentin Cullman Foundation Hays, Mark Dettling, Alan • WCS Belford, Angie Ross, Andy • Kresge Foundation Dettling, Jeff Nadler, Julie Mahar, Kristel Guimara, • Larry Master Steve Langdon, Gordon • Adirondack Nature Dimmig, Kevin Jablonbski, Conservancy Stacy Mc. Nulty • Kildare Club, Lyme Timber, • Jerry Jenkins Dan Christmas