A Regional Modeling System for Weather and Climate

A Regional Modeling System for Weather and Climate Studies in South America Ana Nunes Dept. of Meteorology−IGEO Federal University of Rio de Janeiro EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Motivation In Brazil, environmental disasters are mainly driven by extreme meteorological events. An integrated (atmospheric) modeling system−consisting of atmospheric and land-surface models−was then proposed to reconstruct South American Hydroclimate, with applications in severe weather studies. EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Within the System for Analysis of Environmental Disasters and Risk Assessment Multi-scale approach AOGCM or Reanalysis Team Effort Groups at the Departments of Meteorology, Geography and Geology Regional Model Mesoscale Model Deterministic models EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015 Geomorphological Model

Within the System for Analysis of Environmental Disasters and Risk Assessment AOGCM or Reanalysis Adaptive Model Regional Model + Observations Mesoscale Model Geomorphological Model EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

North America 1. RSM+OSU 2 2. RSM+Noah+Scale-Selective Bias Correction (SSBC*) within NARCCAP EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

RSM+OSU 2: North America EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, Nunes and Roads, 2009 (JGR) 2015

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

NARCCAP Correlation of RCM simulated monthly time series with the UDEL observational data. Highest values of the six RCMs and of the two ensembles are underscored (Table 4: Mearns et al. , BAMS 2012) *SSBC (Kanamaru and Kanamitsu, MWR 2007) EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

South America RSM+Noah EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Global Reanalysis NCEP-DOE R 2 Res. Description Reference 200 km 28 sigma-layers; coupled to the OSU 1 LSM; R 2 provides 6 -hly boundary conditions to the RSM experiments. Kanamitsu et al. 2002 64 layers; 4 -layer Noah LSM. Coupled to ocean. Saha et al. 2010 NCEP Climate Forecast 38 km System Reanalysis (CFSR) Satellite-based Products Res. Description Reference CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) 2. 5° Standard version (satellite and gauge), monthly means of precipitation Xie and Arkin 1997 1 DD-GPCP 1° One-degree daily precipitation version 1. 1 Huffman et al. 2001 CMORPH (RAW/CRT) 1/4 o From satellite; 3 -hly precipitation assimilated by RSM/Gauge-corrected Joyce et al. 2004 Station dataset Res. GTS 0. 5° CPC UNIFIED GAUGE RT 0. 5° Description Daily precipitation analyses from global gauges CPC Unified Gauge-Based Analysis of Global Daily Precipitation (Real Time) EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015 Reference WMO NOAA CPC

Model Description and Experimental Design Model Version Res. (km) Description Reference It has similar physics to RSM: Juang et al. 1997; R 2; coupled to the Noah: Ek et al. 2003 4 -layer LSM RSM 40 PA 40 RSM+Precipitation Assimilation scheme Nunes and Roads 2007 40 RSM+Scale-Selective Bias Correction, similar to Spectral Nudging (von Storch et al. 2000) Kanamitsu et al. 2010 RSM+PA+SSBC_new Nunes 2012 SSBC_new PA+SSBC_new 40 - 25 EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Precipitation (mm/day): Jan-Mar 2004 (a) CMAP; (b) 1 DD-GPCP; (c) GTS; (d) CMORPH. (a) R 2; (b) SSBC_new; (c) PA; (d) PA+SSBC_new. EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Near Surface Temp. : Jan-Mar 2004 2 -m Temperature (o. C): (a) R 2; (b) SSBC_new; (c) PA; (d) PA+SSBC_new. EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

2 -m Specific Humidity (g/kg): Jan-Mar 2004 (a) R 2; (b) SSBC_new; (c) PA; (d) PA+SSBC_new. EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

250 -h. Pa Horizontal Wind (m/s): Jan-Mar 2004 (a) R 2; (b) SSBC_new; (c) PA; (d) PA+SSBC_new. EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Catarina: March 2004 3 -hourly Precipitation (mm) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) ~ 38 km New Scale-Selective Bias Correction (SSBC_new; Kanamitsu et al. , JGR 2010); Precipitation Assimilation (PA; Nunes and Roads, JHM 2007) EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Catarina: 12 -18 UTC 26 Jan 2004 EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Catarina: 12 -18 UTC 26 Mar 2004 EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

South American Monsoon System (SAMS) under La Niña EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Landslides Rio de Janeiro Jan 2011 Mountain area: Vulnerability 40 km_RSM IC: 0 Z 01 Jan 2009 Extreme precipitation: Risk EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

General Remarks ü Dynamical downscaling of global reanalyses is being used to reconstruct South American hydroclimatology, together with high-resolution precipitation datasets; ü SSBC new approach allows the precipitation assimilation to work, but still constrains the regional model solution to follow the large-scale structures from the global boundaryforcing; ü Long-term integrations produced with assistance of these two schemes might also help understanding past extreme events, in association with the low-frequency climate modes. EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015

Acknowledgments NCEP for making available the global reanalyses used in this study; the British Atmospheric Data Centre, RAL, UK, for CRU datasets; NOAA Climate Prediction Center for CMORPH. CMAP Precipitation data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at www. esrl. noaa. gov/psd/. 1 DD data were provided by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center’s Laboratory for Atmospheres, which develops and computes the 1 DD as a contribution to GPCP. EMC-NCEP, College Park, April 21 st, 2015