A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies What is covered, what is not, and what should be? Presentation by Dr. Niklas Schörnig Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), member of the EUNPDC December 16, 2020 https: //export-control. jrc. europa. eu/
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Scope and purpose of the ATT Art. 2 (1): Scope of the ATT: eight categories of conventional arms Art 3 & 4: Ammunitions/Munitions & Components Art. 5 (3): Definitions given by UNRo. CA at the time of entry into force minimum basis 5 (2): National control system national lists Art. 6 and 7: Prohibitions and assessment The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 2
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU The 7 + 1 UNROCA Categories C I: Battle Tanks C V: Attack Helicop. 16, 5 MT, ≥ 75 mm, HCCM attack cap, EM, recon C II: ACV C VI: Warships ≥ 12, 5 mm; CCC ≥ 500 MT, <500 MT: 25 km C III: LCAS C VII: Missiles ≥ 75 mm; S 2 S only ≥ 25 km, no SAMs C IV: Combat AC C VIII: SALW attack cap, EM, recon Icons C I – C VII from https: //www. unroca. org/categories The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 3
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU What are „emerging military technologies“ (EMT) ? Term undefined so far Some technologies more mature, others not US Department of Commerce (Do. C)/ Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) 2018 14 technologies that might be essential for US security Wassenaar Dual-Use Goods and Technology and Munitions List as a guideline? Common understanding in the scientific community The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 4
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Emerging military technologies – an incomplete overview Hypersonic Missiles Uncrewed Vehicles: Air, Ground, Sea (on and below surface) Unarmed and armed Loitering munition? Military related AI Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) Swarming Decision Support Systems Enhanced Logistics The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies „Cyber“ Human Enhancement Additive manufacturing Synthetic Biology Nanotechnology Laser/Railguns Space … Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 5
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Uncrewed Systems in all military branches In all services in use or testing: Reaper UCAV. Photo: USAF Common Unmanned Surface Vehicle. Photo: US Navy, MCSS Andrenay Gorham ‘X 2 unmanned ground vehicle UGV. Photo: UK Mo. D under OGL Dangers: new capabilities, warfare accelerated, lowered hurdle? Covered by the ATT? Some systems probably are (loitering munition = missile), others not or not clear The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 6
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU UNROCA, the ATT and Uncrewed Systems Yet no distinction for UNROCA until 2016: Cs I, II, V and VI No distinction crewed/ uncrewed (as CFE) Basic questions: But long debate about Did UNROCA include uncrewed UCS in UNROCA systems before 2016? GGE 2013 / 2016: Suggest subcategories Does it include uncrewed landand sea-systems? for UAVs only! C IV a/b: “manned” / Does the ATT include uncrewed “unmanned” adopted systems? The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 7
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles: Fast proliferation +100 countries: mil. drones 39 have armed drones 12 have used armed drones Sharp rise since mid-2010 s MQ-8 B "Fire Scout" Source: US Navy MCSN Juel Foster 50 3739 40 2628 30 10 procurred 15 20 0 1 2 3 8 4 5 6 32 9 1012 in use 4 0 20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020 Reaper UCAV. Photo: USAF The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Source: New America Foundation Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 8
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Microdrones Royal Marine controlling a Black Hornet 2 Remotely Piloted Aircraft System. Source: UK Mo. D OGL Trend towards short range micro drones for observation Currently unarmed But potential for armament When armed: Too small, range to short for ATT? Count as missiles/munition? Swarming? Experimental Design. Source: DARPA The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 9
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Uncrewed Ground Vehicles (UGV) UGV as infantry support Category I? too small Category II? no cross-country capability not protected not armed, but easy to arm „Packbot“. Photo: US-Army, https: //www. flickr. com/photos/3570 3177@N 00/4071831933/ But WA-List 05 -12 -2019: The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Cat. 1. A. 6. Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 10
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Uncrewed Combat Ground Vehicles (UCGV) UGV as infantry support MILREM Type-X: 600 x 290 x 200 cm 12 t, 80 km/h max, low silhouette Category I? MILREM „Type-X“ UGV, CC-BY-SA 4 -0 Courtesy of Milremrobotics Almost. . . Category II? cross-country capability protected armament variable The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 11
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Legged UGVs Infantry support: „mule“ Category I? 'Legged Squad Support System (LS 3)'. Photo: US Do. D/Sgt. Sarah Dietz / too small Categoty II? not armed, but could be cross-country capability …but not tracked, semi-tracked or wheeled „ATLAS“ by Boston Dynamics; Photo: DARPA The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 12
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Legged Exoskeleton Kalashnikov: 4 t two-legged exoskeleton/ robot for "engineering and combat solutions“ Category I? too small Category II? not armed, but could be cross-country capability …but not tracked, semi-tracked or wheeled „Controlled Bipedal Walker“ by Kalashnikov Photo: Mikhail Polianskii, PRIF The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 13
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Uncrewed Surface Vessel (USV) Small uncrewed attack boats with variable armament; minesweeper … Category VI? Common Unmanned Surface Vehicle. Photo: U. S. Navy, MCSS Andrenay Gorham can be armed might be too small limited weapon reach below 25 km bigger boats in testing classical warships US „Sea Hunter“. Photo: DARPA The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 14
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Uncrewed Underwater Vehicle (UUV) Mine laying/sweeping Shadowing manned submarines? Threat to strategic assets? Category VI? Mk 18 Mod 1 Swordfish unmanned underwater vehicle. Source: US Army photo by Spc. Duong Le The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies not armed, but could be armed all sizes thinkable When self-destructing: Torpedo? Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 15
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Autonomy and AI More and more functions „autonomous“ 'The Guardium'. Photo: IDF/Cpl. Zev Marmorstein, IDF 'CARACa. S' Photo: US Navy Photo by MCS John Paul Kotar ‘X-47 B' Photo: U. S. Department of Defense AI driven not a „weapon“ but “enabler” Significant increase in capabilities Software more important than hardware The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 16
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Upgrading of existing assets: QF-16 and ACE QF-16 Programme: Upgrade former manned fighters to autonomous flight August 2020: DARPAs Air Combat Evolution (ACE) trials simulated dogfight human vs. AI AI: 5, human: 0 Not ready for fielding, but. . . QF-16; Source: U. S. Air Force photo/ Staff Sgt. Javier Cruz ACE 2020 Contest; Source: DARPA The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 17
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Swarming Perdix Drone; Source: Do. D Swarm attacking in trial combat; Source: DARPA The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Significant force multiplication through networked swarms Self-organisation and optimization of attack vectors Sea, land, air When small: Munition? UAV? Missile? Swarms of autonomous armed platforms? Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 18
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Human Enhancement Aim: Increase effectiveness of human soldiers Exoskeletons Drugs Prostheses / implants Genetic manipulation Source: US Do. D / SMS Adrian Cadiz Weaponization of humans? Blurring the line between human and machine? Source: US Army / Tim Hipps, FMWRC Public Affairs The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 19
A project implemented by BAFA and Expertise France This project is funded by the EU Conclusion Many ET „only“ very advanced/remotely controlled types of existing weapon systems. . . but significant increase in capabilities and acceleration of warfare crisis instability Basic question: How to deal with AI-enhanced robotic/unmanned systems? Included in ATT: yes/no? need for clarification! Less advanced technologies catch up fast (e. g. human enhancement) preventive control? Positive: Many ET already covered by WA, MTCR. . . The ATT and Emerging Military Technologies Dr. Niklas Schörnig, PRIF December 16, 2020 20
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