A Perspective From China Colonel Mac Coleman Former

A Perspective From China Colonel Mac Coleman Former Air Attaché, Beijing Unclassified

Overview Introduction § Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power § People § Resources § Geostrategic Location § Instruments of National Power § Political § Economic § Diplomatic § Military § Summary/Conclusion § Unclassified

Introduction § Cheng Yu – “OLD CHINESE SAYING” § Four character idiom universally used to capture an idea, a truism, or a facet of culture. “ZAI LIN CHUANG HEI” “Toward the Neighbors, Dark Windows” § “WHY WOULD YOU TELL ANYBODY WHAT YOU’RE REALLY THINKING? ” § Describes China in fundamentally important ways Unclassified

Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power Ø • • • THE PEOPLE – “REN MIN” POPULATION 1, 300, 000 “Ren Kou” in 2006 1, 454, 000 by 2040 – then decreases Gov’t policies to shape society for long-term One-child policy designed to age poorer China De facto **Two Chinas** • 1. 350, 000 with cell phones, education • 2. 950, 000 “lao bai xing” – peasants Movement from #2 China to #1 China sustains the growing economy with cheap labor Unclassified

Population Density Unclassified

Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power THE PEOPLE – “REN MIN” Ø • • EDUCATION #1 China stresses advanced, technical education #1 China now has large pool of technical workers Uneven education exacerbates the “Two Chinas” disparities One Child Policy - Unlucky Seven Syndrome in both Chinas pressures youth to succeed Unclassified

Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power THE PEOPLE - “REN MIN” Ø § § § § COHESION -- A Civilization, not a Nation State ZHONG GUO – A Central Kingdom view of world 5, 000 years of history – Stone Age to Modern Age 92% Han Chinese – minorities around fringe One written language, diminishing dialects Strong sense of being ‘Chinese” in both Chinas Patience to suffer big disasters and bad dynasties Far more Chinese than Communist Unclassified

Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power PRIMARY RESOURCES Ø • • • 4% OF WORLD’S ENERGY Mercantilist approach to ensure supply of energy and raw materials High sulfur coal – 16 of 20 dirtiest cities in world Limited petroleum – low quality diesel fuel Hydroelectric power is limited, regional Natural gas burgeoning potential Unclassified

Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power PRIMARY RESOURCES Ø • • WATER: 2 nd LOWEST PER CAPITA IN WORLD Massive pollution 80% unfit even for agricultural use Waterborne disease largest killer of infants Wasteful agricultural practices Three Gorges Dam may silt up in 15 years Uneven distribution – Floods or Drought $One trillion, 30 years to clean it up Unclassified

U. S. & China River Comparison Unclassified

Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power PRIMARY RESOURCES Ø • • China has 40% of U. S. farmland Antiquated methods, peasant dominated Profligate use of water and fertilizer Decreasing productivity Betting future on “super rice” hybrids Unclassified

Farmland Comparison Unclassified

Fundamental Elements of Durable National Power GEOSTRATEGIC LOCATION Ø LOCATION, • • LOCATION, LOCATION Neighbors Coastlines, Harbors SLOCS ALOCS Unclassified

Geostrategic Comparison Unclassified

Instruments of National Power § § POLITICAL ECONOMIC DIPLOMATIC MILITARY Unclassified

Instruments of National Power Ø • • POLITICAL - STRONGEST Retrenched Communist dictatorship Party membership #1 factor to success in all aspects of Chinese society Ultimate masters at information control Party legitimacy hinged on two promises: • Sustained economic growth • Inclusion of Taiwan into China sovereignty Unclassified

Instruments of National Power Ø • • ECONOMIC - GROWING, BUT VULNERABLE Burgeoning, but still in transition Many corrupt, state owned enterprises Wealth is still concentrated, but now privately More $200 k earners in China than in U. S. Slow internal, self-sustaining wealth production Gov’t controlled Mercantilism vs Free Market Must overcome lack of fundamental resources Unclassified

Instruments of National Power Ø • • DIPLOMATIC - Tied to Long-Held Culture All nations bow to Middle Kingdom Tough negotiations a Chinese trait Patience to endure status quo is strong diplomatic suit Today’s China is new on the world scene • 1949 civil war did not open up China • 1979 opening after Cultural Revolution Unclassified

Instruments of National Power Ø MILITARY - SUSTAINS OTHER INSTRUMENTS • Integral part of society and politics Prioritized missions: • Loyalty to the Communist Party • Maintain political activity in society • Modernize • Defend country Not an expeditionary force • • Unclassified

PLA Oath of Office I am a Chinese People’s Liberation Army serviceman, I swear to obey Chinese Communist Party leadership, To wholeheartedly serve the people, obey commands, To strictly observe rules, courageously fight, To not fear to sacrifice my life, To be faithful to all assigned responsibilities, To strive to train ardently to kill the enemy’s strengths, To quickly fulfill my assigned duties in all circumstances, To never betray the Motherland, And to never betray my fellow servicemen. Unclassified

Communist Party Oath I volunteer to join the Chinese Communist Party, To uphold Party principles, To carry out the obligations of a party member, To execute Party decisions, To abide by Party discipline, To keep Party secrets, To be loyal to the Party, To work with all my energy to devote myself to Communism, To at all times prepare to sacrifice all for the Party and the people, And to never betray the Party. Unclassified

People’s Liberation Army u Organization u Capabilities u Training u Education Unclassified

PLA Organization § COMMUNIST PARTY ARMY § Party controls through Central Military Commission § Chaired by HU Jin Tao § 11 Uniformed Members, including service chiefs § 7 Military Regions § Ground force organized into 18 CAAs § Navy organized into three fleets § Air Force organized into 30+ Divisions § 2 D Artillery is strategic missile force Unclassified

PLA Organization POLITBURO STANDING COMMITTEE CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION GPD PLA GSD PLAAF GLD PLAN GAD 2 D ARTILLERY MILITARY REGIONS Unclassified

Military Regions Unclassified

Military Regions and Fleets NSF ESF SSF Unclassified

PLA Capabilities § PLA still the world’s largest force § Limited regional power projection § 1960 s-1970 s technology § Weak C 2 doctrine, targeting philosophy § Reticence to challenge authority § Centralized Control and Execution § PLA’s prioritized missions Unclassified

PLA Capabilities § Careful Study of U. S. transformation § Substantial change to PLA force planning considerations since 1991 § Major impact of DESERT STORM, carrier deployments near Taiwan in 1996, US “meddling” in Kosovo § Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM Unclassified

Exercises and Training § Scripted for success § 1990’s experimental decade § New doctrine/regulations (Gangyao) § Joint exercises still difficult § Conscript army (2 year terms) § Political training paramount Unclassified

Equipment Trends § § § More self-propelled artillery, ADA Heavy foreign acquisition program • Soveremenny Destroyers • Kilo SS Submarines • SU-27/30 Aircraft • AWACS Capability Indigenous Destroyer and Submarine programs Medium Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBMs) Newer Interceptors, Fighter-bombers Unclassified

Professional Military Education § Officer Accession – Historically Exclusive § Officer Accession – Currently Competitive § Entry-Level Schooling - Academies § Mid-Level Schooling – PME § Senior-Level Schooling – PME, Travel § NCO corps still nascent Unclassified

PLAN Projection Capability through 2020 Fully capable CHINA Some capability Unlikely First Island Chain Spratly Islands 500 nm Unclassified

PLA Ground Force Power Projection § No Power Projection § Logistics is constraining factor § MR vs. Warzone constraints § Training weaknesses § Jointness weaknesses Unclassified

PLAAF Power Projection Unclassified

PLAAF Limitations Mostly Obsolete § Reliance on Foreign Acqs § Highly Centralized Contrl § Minimal Joint Operations § Limited Power Projection § § § Limited AWACS Limited air refueling Minimal heavy airlift Unrealistic Training F-8 II Unclassified

PLAAF Trends u Aircraft Modernization ú SU-27/SU-30 s, F-10, BVR u Missile Modernization ú PL-12, AA-10, AA-11, AA-12 Tactics Modernization u Joint Force Development u Airborne C 2 u UAVs & Cruise Missiles u Unclassified

2 D Artillery Force Organization Mission: PLA’s Force for Nuclear and Conv Ballistic Missiles u u 90, 000 Personnel 6 Ballistic Missile Div u 1 EW Division u CMC Chair has Direct Wartime Control u GSD has Peacetime Ops Control Unclassified

2 D Artillery Force Capabilities u u u Nuclear ICBMs 50+ missiles Nuclear MRBMs 35+ missiles Conv/Nuc SRBMs ~ 700 missiles Nuclear SLBM 12 missiles LACMs Unk CSS-6 CSS-2 CSS-7 Unclassified

Military-to-Military Engagement Objectives § “Transparency” – “Responsible Stakeholder” § Reduce Uncertainty § Prevent Miscalculation § Promote Trust § Enhance Mutual Understanding § Specific Goals § Dissuade/Deter Cross Taiwan Strait Crisis § Develop Regional Security Environment § Adhere to NDAA Restrictions Unclassified

Summary § China’s fundamental elements of durable national power cannot sustain peer competition with U. S. § Leadership is critical to all use of instruments of national power – dictatorship will continue § PLA, as instrument of national power, must project enough power to protect Chinese interests beyond littoral Unclassified

Conclusion § “Change? Just downtown Beijing and some of the suburbs. ” – Mao Ze Deng § War in the next 30 years would be the result of mistakes and miscalculation § “But, why would I tell you what I was really thinking? ” Unclassified