A New Monitory Value Model for ALARA Practices

A New Monitory Value Model for ALARA Practices in NPPs ISOE/ATC ALARA Workshop Seoul, Korea 12 -14 Sep. 2007 Dr. Seong. H. Na 1 & Sun. G. Kim 2 1: Executive Director for Radiation and Radwaste Safety, Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety 2: Professor, School of Business, Taejeon Univ. Tel for Dr. Na: +82 42 868 0302, +82 11 402 2071 Fax: +82 42 862 3680 e-mail: shna@kins. re. kr Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

CONTENTS • Financial Consumption for Main ALARA Projects in Korean NPPs • Surveys on Alpha Values and Models (CEPN, UK & Japan) • Logics of KINS Model • Alpha Values • Applications to other countries Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Financial Consumption for Main ALARA Projects in Korean NPP : without model Main Projects for Dose Reduction Allocated Fund ($) Dose Peri Reduction od per Outage (yr) (man. m. Sv) Total Dose Reduction (man. m. Sv) ALARA Cost $/man. m. Sv S/G nozzle dam 213, 000 50 -200 10 450 -2, 200 97 -470 S/G ECT(SM-10) 500, 000 80 -140 10 720 -1, 540 320 -700 R/V studbolt tensioner 475, 000 36 -100 10 320 -1, 100 430 -1, 500 S/G man-way MST 225, 000 26 -36 10 240 -400 570 -960 9, 125, 000 300 -700 30 6, 900 -28, 000 330 -1300 RTD by-pass Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Alpha Values Used by the World NPPs Country Owner/Operator $/man. m. Sv USA Overall $160 -$2, 150 Belgium CEN SKC mol $25. 5 -$5, 000 France Ed. F UK BNFL $60 -$120 Sweden Overall $420 $15 -$2, 250 * Alpha (α) Value: used as the Base value in the model normally called as the ALARA model Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Comparison of Alpha Values with GNP Value Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

$ Total Cost Protection Cost Ideal goal : curve Practical goal : slope ($/man-Sv) Detriment Cost Optimal point Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety Collective dose

Case Study of Models KOREA (2002) - Population (PP) : 48, 082, 000 persons - GDP/PP : 16, 378 US$/person - Expected loss of output from non-fatal caners P 1 : 0. 01/Sv - Expected loss of output from premature death P 2 : 0. 05/Sv - Expected hereditary detriment P 3 : 0. 013/Sv - Probability of Employment E : 0. 969 - Inflation r : 4. 88% - Average life expectancy : 76. 9 years - Daily Cost to treat non fatal cancer: 17 US$ Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

- Total cost to treat non-fatal cancer C 1: 6, 179 US$ - Years to treat non-fatal cancer T 1 : 1 year - Total cost to treat fatal cancer C 2: 17, 485 US$ (8, 742 US$ * 2 years) - Years to treat non-fatal cancer T 2: 2 years - Years of earlier death due to cancer h : 60 year - Expected cost of hereditary detriment C 3 : 1, 830 US$ - Years to treat hereditary detriment T 3: 20 days Non-Fatal Cancers Bonemarrow Skin Breast Leukemia Lung Stomach Liver Cost (US$) 9, 749 3, 164 5, 626 17, 874 6, 065 5, 607 5, 423 Average Per year 6, 179 US$ Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety 8, 742 US$

Models & Korean Data Input 1. U. K NRPB Model → α value: 9. 8 US$ /man-m. Sv αnf : Expected loss of output from non-fatal caners αf : Expected loss of output from premature death αg : Expected medical expenditure on induced cancers αm : Expected cost of hereditary detriment - P 1: Prob. for non-fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0. 01/Sv - P 2: Prob. for fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0. 05/Sv - C 1 : Cost for non-fatal cancers = 6, 179, 865 won - P 3: Prob. for hereditary detriment from radiation = 0. 013/Sv - T 1 : Period for medical curing of non-fatal cancers = 1 yr - E : Prob. of being employed = 0. 969 - C 2 Cost for fatal cancers = 17, 485, 390 won - r : Mean inflation rate = 4. 88% - C 3 Cost for hereditary detriment = 1, 830, 893 won - l : Life expectancy = 76. 5 yr - T 3 Period for medical curing of hereditary detriment = 20 day - h : The avg. age of premature death due to cancers = 60 yr Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

2. Japan Kyoto Univ. Model → α value: 2. 5 US$/man-m. Sv αnf : Expected loss of output from non-fatal cancers & medical expenditure for a man αf Expected loss from out of work due to fatal cancers for a man αg Expected cost of hereditary detriment for a man - Pnf: Prob. for non-fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0. 01/Sv - Pf: Prob. for fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0. 05/Sv - Pg: Prob. for hereditary detriment from radiation = 0. 013/Sv - l : Life expectancy = 76. 5 yr - h : The avg. age of premature death due to cancers = 60 yr Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety ME : Daily medical expenditure = 16, 931 won W : GDP/capita C : Consumption= 0. 9*W

3. France CEPN Model → αbase : 13 $/man-m. Sv Ref(x) = base(x/x 0)a Ref(x) = base a : risk aversion factor GDP/capita (in 2002) : 14, 503 $/man/yr base 0 x Collective dose Loss of life expectancy induced by a radiation health effect : 16 years Probability of occurrence of health effects associated with 1 Sv : 0. 056 /Sv Monetary value of health effects associated with 1 Sv : 12, 995, 176 won/Sv Alpha base value → 13 $/m. Sv Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

① a=1. 4 (constant) Dose level (manm. Sv) 0~1 1~5 5~15 15~30 30~50 α value ($/man 13 ② a= (varied) m. Sv) 63. 09 2 334. 1, 027 2, 287. 5 a 1 1. 2 1. 6 1. 75 Dose level (man-m. Sv) 0~1 1~5 5~15 15~30 30~50 α value ($/man-m. Sv) 13 49. 5 538. 3, 095. 8, 384. * Christian, 1998 Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Distribution of workers in four stepwise dose ranges in 2005 Dose Range (m. Sv) Name NPP Workers Total (Person) 0. 1~1 1~5 5~10 10~ ≧ 20 7, 430 (0. 76) 1, 577 (0. 16) 543 (0. 055) 260 (0. 025) 9, 810 Collective Dose man-m. Sv ※ Duplicated Count is Adjusted Dose Range m. Sv All Workers 0~1 1~5 5~10 10~ ≧ 20 Total Workers 21, 611 (0. 691) 8, 363 (0. 267) 967 (0. 031) 347 (0. 011) 31, 288 (1. 00) Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety 32, 757

Case Study of Models ECONOMIC METHOD Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Approach to Define the Human Value Human Capital Approach - Treat as a substance value - Cost-Benefit Analysis o Revealed Preference Approach: WTP - Survey - willingness to-pay Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

(1) DIFFERENTIAL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS Residual dose(D) ◆ ◆ Ⓑ △D ◆ ⊙ Ⓐ ◆ △C ◆ Cost(C) □ △C/ △D : implicit cost of avoided dose unit o α : reference monetary value of d dose unit => “what is agreed to be paid in order to avoid one dose unit” □ Optimum : d. C/d. D ≤ α Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

(2) Cost-Benefit Analysis - Optimization Cost Total Cost Optimal point Optimized Cost Exposure Cost Protection Cost 0 Optimized Dose (ALARA) Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety man-m. Sv

Case of UK Collective dose (man-Sv per year) 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 ALARA only 0. 2 20 m. Sv, then ALARA 0. 1 0 0 40000 80000 120000 Annual cost (US dollars per year) - Annual Cost to reduce the collective dose Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Life Expectancy & GNP Mean life expectancy(y) 80 60 40 20 0 0 10, 000 20, 000 Annual gross national product person (US dollars per year) - Surveyed 53 countries 30, 000 -Life Expectancy is proportional to the GNP increase if it is less than US$ 10, 000 Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Human Capital Approach Human Life Price is estimated by an individual loss of contribution to the national economic Case of France CEPN : Monetary value of Human Life per Sv GDP/person US$ 35, 282 Average Life Expectancy 42 yr Life Price US$ 35, 282× 42(yr) = 1, 481, 844 Life years lost due to disease (ICRP 60) Cost to treat Health Detriment US$ Probability of Cancer (1 Sv) Loss of National Economic due to Health Detriment per 1 Sv Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety 19. 4(yr) 35, 282× 19. 4(년 ) = 684, 470 5. 6× 10 -2 /Sv 684, 470× 5. 6× 10 -2

CEPN Model for Alpha Value - Ref(d) = Base(d/d 0)a Ref(d) = Base 0 d Individual Dose m. Sv Base : Monetary Value of unit dose do : Upper value allowed individual dose for Base a : Aversion Factor (1. 2 -1. 75) Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety d

Aversion Factor Range for a Multiplying Factor a 16 High A 12 8 Low A 4 0 10 -4 10 -6 10 -2 Annual Individual Dose Sy/y Case of France a = 1. 6 if less or equal to 15 m. Sv/y a= 1. 75 if 20 m. Sv/y Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety 10 -0

KINS Model for Alpha Value Ref(d) = Base for d ≤ d 0 (1 m. Sv) Ref(d) = Base(d/d 0)a for d > d 0 (1 m. Sv) GDP/capita (constant price of 2006) : 16, 449 US$/man GDP Deflator : 111. 7 Loss of life expectancy caused by radiation : 18. 5 years Detriment Probability : 0. 056 /Sv (Probability of occurrence of health effect αbase value : 17. 1 US$/man-m. Sv = GDP/capita × Loss of Life Expectancy × Prob. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

$ Total Cost Ideal goal : curve Practical goal : slope ($/man-Sv) Protection Cost Detriment Cost Optimal point Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety Collective dose

KINS Alpha Value Model for Korea Cost α 3 α 2 α 1 α base 0 1 Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety 5 10 Individual Dose( m. Sv )

Alpha Value in Korea - αref(x) = αbase, if x≤ 1 a=1 = α 1, if 1<x≤ 5 a=1. 4 = α 2, if 5<x≤ 10 a=1. 5 = α 3, if 10<x a=1. 7 - αbase : 17. 1 US$/man-m. Sv - α 1 : 80 US$/man-m. Sv : 17. 1 x (3/1)1. 4 - α 2 : 350 US$/man-m. Sv : 17. 1 x (7. 5/1)1. 5 - α 3 : 1, 700 US$/man-m. Sv : 17. 1 x (15/1)1. 7 Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Applied in Other Countries 1) Corporate or plant alpha values for occupational exposure: set of values Country Corporate or NPP Monetary Value of man-m. Sv ($) Belgium CEN SCK Mol 0 -1 m. Sv : 23 1 -2 m. Sv : 58 2 -5 m. Sv : 232 5 -10 m. Sv : 620 10 -20 m. Sv : 1, 158 20 -50 m. Sv : 4, 635 1995 France EDF 0 -1 m. Sv : 14 1 -5 m. Sv : 57 5 -15 m. Sv : 328 15 -30 m. Sv : 955 30 -50 m. Sv : 2, 138 1993 Germany VGB proposal agreed on by all utilities for testing 0 -1 m. Sv : no value 1 -10 m. Sv : 143 10 -20 m. Sv : ~1, 434 1997 Netherlands Borssele NPP 0 -10 m. Sv : 467 10< m. Sv : 935 Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety Adoption year 2002

Alpha Value in Korea Based on the constant price of the GDP per capita in 2006 • 0~1 m Sv : 17. 1 $/man-m. Sv • 1~5 m. SV : 80 $/man-m. Sv • 5~10 m. Sv : 350 $/man-m. Sv • >10 m. Sv : 1, 700 $/man-m. Sv Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

KINS Model for Alpha Values Dose Range (m. Sv) 0~1 1~5 5~10 ≥ 10 Distribution f(x) 0. 69 0. 27 0. 03 0. 01 Aversion Factor a 1 1. 4 1. 5 1. 7 Korea α Value (US$/man. m. Sv) 17. 1 80 350 1, 700 France α Value (US$/man. m. Sv) 38 365 1, 212 6, 242 Ref(d) = Base d ≤ 1 m. Sv Ref(d) = Base(d/d 0)a Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

2) Alpha values of Regulatory bodies $ of Man-m. Sv Adopted year Korea Canada PPP GNI($) 2002 16, 960 28, 390 13 ~ 1, 300 70. 3 2009 ? 1997 Czech Republic 14, 920 16. 8~84. 1 2002 Finland Netherlands Romania Sweden UK USA 26, 160 28, 350 6, 490 25, 820 26, 580 36, 110 100 486 220 13. 5~277. 8 15. 7~157. 2 200 1991 1995 ~2002 1998 1995 Country * CEPN, 2003 * PPP GNI : Purchasing Power Parity Gross National Income It reflects the real value of currency and objective-economic situation. Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Country 2002 Survey Slovakia RP Decree <2 m. Sv : 48. 27 EUR No. 12/2001 in 2001 2 -5 m. Sv : 120. 68 EUR, 5 -15 m. Sv : 362. 03 EUR adjusted by consumer 15 -30 m. Sv : 482. 71 EUR, 30 -50 m. Sv : 603. 38 EUR price Belgium <1 m. Sv : 24. 79 EUR, 1 -2 m. Sv : 61. 97 EUR 2 -5 m. Sv : 247. 89 EUR 5 -10 m. Sv : 619. 73 EUR 10 -20 m. Sv : 1239. 47 EUR 20 -50 m. Sv : 4957. 87 EUR Netherlands <10 m. Sv : 500 EUR >10 m. Sv : 1000 EUR Spain Total collective does: < 1250 man-m. Sv on a 3 years average = 1000 EUR, > 1250 man-m. Sv on a 3 years average = 5000 EUR Individual does : < 10 m. Sv = 1000 EUR, > 10 m. Sv = 5000 EUR UK (BNFL) For individual doses < 5 m. Sv : NRPB data set from 14. 68 to 29. 36 EUR (10 to 20 GBP) if individual dose > 5 m. Sv : multiplied by a factor of 3 if individual dose around 10 m. Sv : multiplied by a factor of 5 USA (South texas NPP) < 10 m. Sv : 466. 29 EUR (500 USD) >10 m. Sv : 2331. 44 EUR (2500 USD) Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

Comparison of Existing Values Own Model Values KINS Model (PPP) US$/man-m. Sv 1~ 20 m. Sv Base 1 2 3 KOREA 17 US$/man-m. Sv 13 60 270 2000 UK 34 US$/man-m. Sv 43 382 970 2480 37 US$/man-m. Sv 51 450 1, 150 2, 920 43 380 962 2450 JAPAN USA S. Texas NPP FRANCE 466~2, 620 US$/man-m. Sv 38 ~ 24, 200 (40 m. Sv) Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

New Values in Current Price and PPP GDP $/person PPP (1) Average Life Years (2) Korea 16, 378 18. 6 764 1, 024 17, 060 12, 730 USA 42, 523 17. 5 1 1 41, 670 France 35, 282 20. 3 0. 902 0. 805 40, 110 44, 940 UK 36, 780 18. 5 0. 627 0. 55 38, 110 43, 440 Canada 35, 420 19. 9 1. 25 1. 212 39, 470 40, 710 Japan 35, 741 21. 8 129 110. 1 43, 633 51, 123 China 1, 477 11. 4 1. 8 8. 3 943 205 (3) Exchange Current Priced PPP Alpha Rate Alpha base $/man-Sv (4) (5) = (1) x (2) (18. 6 year) x Cancer risk (5. 6 x 10 -2 /Sv) PPP Alpha base value = (5) x (3)/(4) Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

New Values evaluated by the use of KINS Model Cases Alpha base Value $/man-Sv Alpha Values $/man-Sv (Aversion Factor per region) α 1 (a=1. 4) α 2 (a=1. 5) α 3 (a=1. 7) PPP 13, 000 60000 267000 1300000 Korea Current Price 17, 000 80000 350000 1700000 Japan PPP 51, 000 240000 105000 5100000 Current Price 44, 000 200000 900000 4400000 PPP 205 954 4210 20500 Current Price 943 4390 19370 94300 PPP 79, 000 370000 1620000 7900000 Current Price 59000 275000 1212000 5900000 China Swiss Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

New Values evaluated by the use of KINS Model Cases Alpha base Value $/man-Sv PPP UK USA Current Price PPP Current Price France PPP Current Price Canada PPP Alpha Values $/man-Sv (Aversion Factor per region) α 1 (a=1. 4) α 2 (a=1. 5) α 3 (a=1. 7) 43, 000 200, 000 880, 000 43, 000, 00 0 38, 110 180, 000 780, 000 38, 000, 00 0 42, 000 195, 000 860, 000 42, 500, 00 0 45, 000 210, 000 920, 000 45, 000, 00 0 40, 000 190, 000 820, 000 40, 00 0 41, 000 190000 820, 000 41, 000, 00 0 Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety

CONCLUSION 1. ALARA Value is communication tool among stakeholders 2. Easy and Rational : neither in-depth study nor mathematical complexity 3. derived from the basis on GDP and Life Expectancy : practical compensation and current values 4. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is recommended for international comparison 5. Variation of Risk Aversion Factor (a-value) drives different values; however, laborious effort for adjustment is not recommended 6. Consistency of the probability of health detriment: Human Race and Regional Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety