A modeling simulation framework to monitor ASM activity

Outline Background and issues Proposal • • Overview Case-study: the Rantabe site (Madagascar) Extended

Background > The socioeconomic context of artisanal mining activity • Very labour intensive •

Overview of the proposed approach > modeling & simulation via Multi-Agent System (MAS) >

Quartz exploitation in Rantabe > Recall: activity at micro-economic level • ensure a food

Modeling methodology > Considering and modeling real field studies • Barthelemy and Bouchut (2002)

The quartz network modeling Search & collection Collection & grinding Quartz pre-grinding Transportation 10

Example of simulation results time of simulation (in months) > Results and proposals of

Artisanal Gold mining in the Alga site > Recall: activity at micro-economic level •

Modeling methodology > 1 - Setting up the policy hypothesis • The authorities play

The artisanal gold mining network model (1) Extraction area (2) Treatment area (from manual

Formalization of the MAS model 10 June 2021

Simulation & prospective research results 10 June 2021

Preliminary (scientific) results > Publications / communications (2004 - 2006) • • • 2

Limitations of the work & improvement > need improvement of the methodology … •

Current ongoing work - > Is@tem • 10 June 2021 Interoperable System [applied to]

Conclusion > Finding a better future for ASM is complex because • the activity

That’s all folks ! Thank you for your attention! 10 June 2021

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A modeling & simulation framework to monitor ASM activity in developing countries: a prospective point of view Dr F. Andriamasinoro BRGM (French Geological Survey) - France Mineral Resources Division email: f. andriamasinoro@brgm. fr 10 June 2021

Outline Background and issues Proposal • • Overview Case-study: the Rantabe site (Madagascar) Extended case study: the Alga site (Burkina Faso) Preliminary (scientific) results Current work state (year 2006) • • Limitations of the work & further improvement Ongoing work - Conclusion 10 June 2021

Background > The socioeconomic context of artisanal mining activity • Very labour intensive • • The artisans’ income is not sufficient to live decently But it creates jobs • So, how can the future of ASM be improved? – involves human behavior – 40 million people worldwide and 5 million in Africa (ILO, 1999) > Focus: improve the future of ASM, in terms of… • • Development: e. g. ensure an improvement in… – the artisans' income (at individual or group level) and thus fight the poverty of the mining population – the activity itself, i. e. sustainability Governance: e. g. reduce the clandestine buyers channels 10 June 2021 – decrease the loss of profit of the State

Overview of the proposed approach > modeling & simulation via Multi-Agent System (MAS) > Why modeling & simulation? • • deals with the complexity of a system via reproduction & abstraction the resulting tool can be used as a help for decision-makers to: 1) answer questions they may pose, and then 2) integrate and consider the results when proposing policies for the future – via the building, analysis and simulation of scenarios > Why adopting the MAS approach? • • Hydrogeologic or (pure) economic future evolution Þmathematical/physical/statistical models Differential equations, extrapolation, etc. (classic approach) Social dynamic evolution (complexity at a more detailed level) ÞMulti-Agent System models algorithm & simulation (alternative to classical approach) 10 June 2021

Our generic MAS framework 10 June 2021

Quartz exploitation in Rantabe > Recall: activity at micro-economic level • ensure a food base and a complementary income to crops – independent of crop seasons catastrophic phenomena (e. g. locust swarm invasions) > Possible questions authorities may pose: • What could be the impact of increasing the quartz price by r%. . . • What should be the best strategy (behavior) to be adopted? 10 June 2021 – on the socioeconomic evolution of artisans? – on the activity itself?

Modeling methodology > Considering and modeling real field studies • Barthelemy and Bouchut (2002) > Taking into account the main activity: crop • Rice, vanilla and clove crops • • 3 socioeconomic categories: rich, middle, poor Adopting the strategy for survival (real field behavior) > Actors’scale: artisans and families > Using rice as economic the reference – Weight unit: gony (about 25 kg of rice) – Price unit = 1 considered as the rice price Quartz price = r (i. e. r times higher/lower than the rice price ) 10 June 2021

The quartz network modeling Search & collection Collection & grinding Quartz pre-grinding Transportation 10 June 2021

Example of simulation results time of simulation (in months) > Results and proposals of policies • • 10 June 2021 the quartz price increase the percentage of middle families … – But the increase should be done at an intermediate level only continued production Better: mixing artisanal and industrial mining – progress towards sustainable development – But difficulty: need to convince the population to change its behavior

Artisanal Gold mining in the Alga site > Recall: activity at micro-economic level • Has been motivated by the economic situation (since 1980) • Strengthening of clandestine buyers channels – crisis, dryness, … – Indirectly due to the opening of the activity to the private sector > Possible questions authorities may pose: • 10 June 2021 To what extent is it possible to increase the official gold price – to improve the artisans’ income by b%? (Development) – to reduce the ratio of the clandestine buyers’ channel to a%? (Governance)

Modeling methodology > 1 - Setting up the policy hypothesis • The authorities play only on the variation of the official gold price > 2 - Data used for the model • Jaques & Zida (2004) > 3 - Modeling (with MAS) > 4 - Simulations • • 10 June 2021 1 - for model validation 2 - for prospective research

The artisanal gold mining network model (1) Extraction area (2) Treatment area (from manual crushing … to sluice washing) Gold dust 10 June 2021

Formalization of the MAS model 10 June 2021

Simulation & prospective research results 10 June 2021

Preliminary (scientific) results > Publications / communications (2004 - 2006) • • • 2 international publications with a reading committee 3 international communications with a reading committee available on request (f. andriamasinoro@brgm. fr) > 1 international Award (USA, 2005) 10 June 2021

Limitations of the work & improvement > need improvement of the methodology … • in terms of data collection / analysis / validation (what, how, …) • to be more reproducible (as far as possible) from an application to another – Data types, interview form structures, micro-spatial data, etc… > Model/tool: should be a more end-user-oriented tool • reducing a real gap existing – between modelers and thematic experts – between scientists (in general) and e. g. decision-makers Þ building a tool more understandable by end users at any level – hiding the scientific complexity of the system and letting it to developers 10 June 2021

Current ongoing work - > Is@tem • 10 June 2021 Interoperable System [applied to] Territory and Environment Management

Conclusion > Finding a better future for ASM is complex because • the activity is most based on communities (i. e. human) behavior > To deal with this complexity … – we propose prospective research via modeling & simulation considering multi-sectorial approach (crop & quartz collection, conflicts (? )) – it may be a help to solve issues during a decision making process > The design of such a platform/tool is possible … – ex: two cases studies (to date): the Rantabe & Alga sites some simulations results (although questionable) – some scientific results > … but next design tasks need participative approach • going beyond a purely scientific aspect • approaching the end-users as close as possible Þ we are open for a further discussion on how the approach should be improved to meet your needs 10 June 2021

That’s all folks ! Thank you for your attention! 10 June 2021