A LNG MARKET UNDER MUTATION LNG ProducerConsumer Conference
- Slides: 7
A LNG MARKET UNDER MUTATION LNG Producer-Consumer Conference 2015 Tokyo, September 16 th, 2015
GAS WORLD GAS DEMAND 2015/2025: + ~2% / YEAR North America Europe Asia importers Bcm/y CAGR 15/25 1. 4% 1, 000 CAGR 15/25 4. 1% 0. 3% 1000 1, 000 500 500 0 2015 Regional Production 2025 Pipe Imports 2015 LNG Imports 2025 2015 LNG Exports (US+Canada) 2025 Domestic Demand Gas demand pulled by power generation (50% of the incremental demand 2015/2025) and transportation (6% of the incremental demand 2015/2025) LNG Producer-Consumer Conference 2015 – Tokyo, 16 th Sept. 2015 - Jean-Pierre Mateille 2
LNG WORLD LNG, STILL THE FASTEST GROWING GAS SEGMENT LNG supply by project LNG demand by region Bcm/y Mtpa 600 Mtpa CAGR 15/25 600 Existing 4. 4% 400 Post-FID Europe Others 400 Asia new comers 200 Existing 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 Traditional Asia* 2008 0 0 New sanctioned projects mainly from Australia, US and Russia adding 40% of the existing capacity in the next 5 years Europe: flexible market as well as Asian newcomers LNG Producer-Consumer Conference 2015 – Tokyo, 16 th Sept. 2015 - Jean-Pierre Mateille 3
LNG WORLD DRIVERS OF CHANGES IN THE LNG MARKET INTERNAL FORCES & EXTERNAL PRESSURE Old World Now Diversions / Price Review s Spot market 20/30 Y Oil Indexatio n DES -- Duration / S ize ++ Indexation s FOB INTERNAL FORCES Ø Upcoming US LNG FOB volumes are almost at ‘fixed price’ Ø Break-up of the traditional link between gas producer, liquefaction and marketing Ø Evolution of contractual terms Ø Weaker spot LNG prices EXTERNAL PRESSURE Ø Oil prices halved in a year and under renewed pressure, challenging oil-indexation economics Ø Energy demand growth challenged by slow economic recovery and by energy efficiency Ø Potential mid-term LNG oversupply While the LNG market was already undergoing some changes, the conjunction of internal changes and external pressure has the potential to profoundly transform the structure of the market LNG Producer-Consumer Conference 2015 – Tokyo, 16 th Sept. 2015 - Jean-Pierre Mateille 4
LNG WORLD A LNG MARKET UNDER MUTATION WITH THE COEXISTENCE OF TWO WORLDS Spare regas capacity FOB Variable Quantity Hybrid-indexation Physical Spot market is developing Market Size & Depth Higher credit-risk 100+ players New, smaller entrants & traders Shipping availability Low credit-risk Costly infrastructure DES Oil-indexation Volumes under Long-Term contracts remain preponderant Captive Shipping Handful of large Buyers & Sellers Flexibility & Diversity While term contracts are needed to launch post-2020 LNG developments, many elements supporting the emergence of a spot market are gathering LNG Producer-Consumer Conference 2015 – Tokyo, 16 th Sept. 2015 - Jean-Pierre Mateille 5
TOTAL: IN CONSTANT ADAPTATION A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO OF ORIGINS AND MARKET ACCESS Snohvit Yamal South Hook Dunkerque LNG Fos Cavaou Sabine Pass Cameron Altamira Hazira NLNG T 1 -T 6 Angola LNG Yemen LNG Qatargas 2 Qatargas 1 Adgas Qalhat LNG Oman LNG Bontang Ichthys Papua LNG GLNG Existing liquefaction projects Liquefaction projects under construction Liquefaction projects under FEED or under study Existing regasification terminals LNG Producer-Consumer Conference 2015 – Tokyo, 16 th Sept. 2015 - Jean-Pierre Mateille 6
THANK YOU FOR YOU ATTENTION LNG Producer-Consumer Conference 2015 – Tokyo, 16 th Sept. 2015 - Jean-Pierre Mateille 7