A Global Framework for Climate Services GFCS Leonard

A Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Leonard Barrie and Ghassem Asrar Directors of Research World Meteorological Organization Lbarrie@wmo. int or gasrar@wmo. int WWRP-WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to Sub-seasonal Prediction, UKMO, Exeter 1 -3 Dec. 2010 Acknowledgement: Recent reports from G. Love (WMO Secretariat), Angus Friday(HLT), Jan Egeland (HLT)

OUTLINE • Mandate for WCRP/WWRP collaboration on seasonal-subseasonal forecasting • The origin of GFCS • The scoping of GFCS by a high level intergovernmental task force (HLT) and the current state of progress. • Next steps in GFCS development • Some features of the evolving GFCS concept

A Report of the Executive Council Task Team (EC-RTT) on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework June 2009

C. Core Service Delivery Mechanisms Forecasts/Predictions WMO DPFS GFCS Earth System Science B. Research Communities Meet WWRP-THORPEX, GAW Numerical Weather Prediction WCRP, GAW Climate Modelling A. Mix of Research & Operations Research Nowcasts Day to Month Weather Forecasts Seasonal/Inter-annual Prediction Research Operations Decadal Prediction Decadal To Century Time Scale Dependence Of Three Different Characteristics Of Weather, Climate, Water and Environmental Prediction Activities

~105 Participants; 39 Delegations; 5 Proxy Delegations (121 CAS Members) Incheon Korea November 2009

Outcome of CAS XV on Research at the Weather-Climate Interface 7. 3. 3 CAS requested the JSCs of the WWRP and the WCRP and also the THORPEX ICSC to set up an appropriate collaborative structure to carry out an international research initiative on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting. It recommended that this is closely coordinated with the existing CBS infrastructure for long-range forecasting (with centres producing longrange forecasts and regional climate centres) and with the future developments in WMO climate service delivery and the Global Framework for Climate Services called for in the High-Level Declaration of WCC-3.

OUTCOMES OF THE THIRD WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE – Aug. 2009 • Conference statement from an Expert Segment • Conference Declaration from a Hi-Level Segment recommending a GFCS to be implemented through a high level task force (HLT) • Conference report and proceedings

CONCLUSIONS FROM THE EXPERT SEGMENT • Present capabilities to provide effective climate services fall far short of meeting present and future needs • There is an urgent need for much closer partnership between the providers and users of climate services • Major new and strengthened research efforts are required to increase the time range and skill of climate prediction • Observations are an essential component

Inter-governmental Meeting on GFCS 11 -12 January 2010 Geneva • Set the Terms of Reference for a High Level Taskforce (HLT) • Established the Membership of the Taskforce based on a proposal by the WMO’s Secretary. General • Agreed that WMO Secretariat in Geneva will host an Inter-governmental secretariat for the HLT www. wmo. int/hlt-gfcs/

Composition of the Taskforce • Michel Jarraud (WMO Co- • chair) • • Joaquim Chissano • (Mozambique) • Angus Friday (Grenada) • • Ricard Lagos (Chile) • • Khotso Mokhele (S. Africa) • • Cristina Narbona Ruiz • (Spain) • • Qin Dahe (China) Jan Egeland (Norway) Co-Chair Eugenia Kalnay (Argentina/USA) Julia Martin-Lefevre (Hungary/France/USA) Chiaki Mukai (Japan) Rajendra Singh Paroda (India) Emil Salim (Indonesia) Fiama Naomi Mata’Afa (Samoa) Mahmoud Abu-Zied (Egypt)

Why a FRAMEWORK for Climate Services? • Important research does not move rapidly to climate services for the most vulnerable • Climate services do not get the last mile to those who need them the most because there are gaps in the: – global distribution of scientists, engineers and other tertiary educated people – observation networks supporting climate services Jan Egland Co-chair HLT

Scope of Work of the HLT In one year do the following: • Define the components of GFCS and their roles, responsibilities, and capabilities within the GFCS • Clearly illustrate how GFCS will assist the integration of climate information and services into national planning, policy and programmes • Develop options for governance • Outline a plan for implementation • Take into account the special needs of Africa, Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Least Developed Countries (LDCs), and Land-Locked Developing Countries (LLDCs);

STRUCTURE OF THE HLT REPORT Part I A succinct description of the current global climate services capability –The supply side Part II Discussion with a series of case studies illustrating as to why the Global Framework for Climate Services is required (Fill the gaps) – The demand side Part III This section should provide a clear vision of what the new global framework would look like – The Implementation Strategy and Options for Governance.

Principles Adopted In Developing The Implementation Strategy 1. All countries will benefit, but priority should be given to the needs of climate-vulnerable poor countries; 2. The primary focus must be greater access and use of climate information by users; 3. Framework activities should address three spatial scales: global, regional and national; 4. Climate information is primarily a public good and should be made widely available; 5. The Framework should respect national and international data policies while encouraging global, free and open exchange of climate-relevant data; and, 6. The role of the Framework should be to facilitate and strengthen and not duplicate.

Timeline (from 1 November 2010) • 1 Nov Draft HLT Report on the web for government and expert review. • 22 Nov. Review period ends • 30 Nov. Final-1 version completed by the HLT secretariat • 1 Dec. Final-1 version of report sent to HLT members • 13 -15 Dec. HLT-5 Geneva. HLT members comment on Final Report and discuss follow-up activities. • 12 Jan. 2011 FINAL version of the Report completed taking into account of feedback from HLT-5. • May 2010 Present to the WMO Congress (Cg 16) and to Secretary-General of the UN.

GFCS components

Global, Regional and National Levels

GFCS Priorities In the first four years give priority to: • Agriculture • Disaster risk reduction • Water • Health

GFCS Implementation Goals The GFCS will establish: 1. A global system to routinely generate and exchange climate data and data products 2. Upgrade the climate service capacities in low-capacity countries to a baseline level 3. A governance mechanism

Objective for 2016 • A global, operational climate services system. • Continuous upgrading of climate services in developing countries. • User oriented creation of new services. • A governance mechanism that drives Framework development.

Governance Option A: Intergovernmental Board

Governance Option B: Joint Board

GFCS components (Schematic from presentation of Jan Egland)

C. Core Service Delivery Mechanisms Forecasts/Predictions WMO DPFS GFCS Earth System Science B. Research Communities Meet WWRP-THORPEX, GAW Numerical Weather Prediction WCRP, GAW Climate Modelling A. Mix of Research & Operations Research Nowcasts Day to Month Weather Forecasts Seasonal/Inter-annual Prediction Research Operations Decadal Prediction Decadal To Century Time Scale Dependence Of Three Different Characteristics Of Weather, Climate, Water and Environmental Prediction Activities

Thank You