A Framework for Estimating the Number of Extremists

A Framework for Estimating the Number of Extremists in Canada Stephanie Dawson Simon Fraser University & Garth Davies Simon Fraser University

Introduction Hidden populations ◦ Methods for studying these populations Need to get accurate counts of extremists ◦ Or at least some better approximation Why? ◦ Policy responses ◦ Allocation of resources Outline - 3 stages

Methods

Targeted & Time-Location Sampling 2 components ◦ Controlled list of specific populations within geographic district ◦ Plan to recruit adequate numbers Advantages Disadvantages Sample individuals who visit specific locations Create comprehensive map of areas and time periods Systematic sampling – select units entering of exiting location Advantages Disadvantages

Capture-Recapture Method Basically works by capturing, counting and marking a sample, and then re-capturing that same sample at a later point and noting the overlap between these two captured samples Advantages ◦ Accessible; has been used successfully on range of populations Disadvantages ◦ Limited utility in certain situations

Fieldwork and Multiplier Methods Compile list of areas containing population of interest Sample from list Advantages Disadvantages Ratio of known to unknown population Overlap in independent data sources Advantages Disadvantages

Link Tracing Designs I Snowball sampling Network sampling Adaptive sampling Advantages Disadvantages

Link Tracing Designs II Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) Multistage process of selecting respondents from friendship networks “Seeds” chosen from pre-existing contact Seeds recruit respondents from networks Advantages Disadvantages

General Issues Defining the problem ◦ Self-definition ◦ Reluctant to admit participation Incomplete data

Application to Extremist Populations Definition of extremist/terrorism Challenges of obtaining cooperation ◦ Negative connotation ◦ International crime Terrorists really are different ◦ Level of violence ◦ Clandestine ◦ Global phenomenon Both individual and group

Application in the Canadian context Best approach – RDS Not a unitary phenomenon What groups would exist in Canada Best hope – Internet Still – serious challenges Real value in RDS might lie with its ability to provide us with badly needed information as a starting point for further research

Thank you! Steph and Garth