A computational theory methodology and system Actionable Intelligence

A computational theory, methodology and system Actionable Intelligence: Continuous Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments from Masses of Data Dr. G. Tecuci, Dr. D. A. Schum, Dr. M. Boicu, Dr. D. Marcu Learning Agents Center The Volgenau School of Engineering George Mason University

Computational Theory Mu lti- INT fus ion What evidence is entailed by each hypothesis? sis the n po Hy rivetion d llec co What hypotheses would explain these observations? Likeliness of Hypotheses What is the evidence-based likeliness of each hypothesis? Observations New Evidence in search of hypotheses Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University Explanatory Hypotheses in search of evidence Big Data Evidentiary testing of hypotheses

ambush threat deceptive threat ambush traffic preparation disruption Discovery of Hypotheses traffic deviation not road work Evidence in search of hypotheses E 1: Evidence of road work at Al Batha junction at 1: 17 am What hypotheses would explain this Big Data Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University road block road repair

Hypotheses in search of evidence Assuming that this hypothesis is true, what other things should be observable? Discovery of Evidence Ambush threat at Al Batha highway junction around 1: 17 am. & ambush preparation good location & deployment of terrorists route used by U. S. forces ambush cover Search for evidence that the Al Batha highway junction is on a route used by the U. S. Search for evidence that there is ambush cover near the Al Batha highway & people descended from vehicle Search for evidence that people descended at the Al Batha highway junction from a vehicle short before road block people move to cover vehicle departed from terrorist facility Search for evidence that the vehicle that drove the people to the Al Batha highway junction short before 1: 17 am, departed from a terrorist Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University &

Evidentiary testing of hypotheses Discovery of Arguments We have strong belief that there is an strong belief ambush threat to the U. S. forces at the Al Batha junction. & strong belief ambush preparation very strong belief good location & & Inferential force How strong is our belief that this hypothesis is very strong belief true? ambush cover total belief route used strong belief deployment of terrorists very strong belief road block & strong belief people move to cover total belief very strong belief How strong is our belief in this link? people very strong belief descended total belief E 2: AFC confirms route Believability very strong belief How is our E 3: strong brushes, belief that this trees, and evidence is true? ruins from vehicle strong belief vehicle departed from terrorist facility very strong belief E 4: People get off pickup truck strong belief E 5: Pickup truck leaves abandoned rice farm Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University Relevance

Computational Theory (Cyber) Insider Threat Evidence in search of hypotheses Hypotheses in search of evidence Observation of Actions Evidentiary testing of hypotheses New Observable Actions Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University Likeliness of Possible Insider Missions

Computational Theory Forensics Evidence in search of hypotheses Likeliness of causes Hypotheses in search of evidence Observation s at the site of incident New potential evidence Evidentiary testing of hypotheses Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University Possible causes

Computational Theory Medicine Evidence in search of hypotheses Patient’s complaints Likeliness of Illnesses Hypotheses in search of evidence New tests Evidentiary testing of hypotheses Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University Possible Illnesses

Computational Theory Possible charges or complaints Evidence in search of hypotheses Likeliness of charges Hypotheses in search of evidence Observation s during fact investigatio New potential evidence Evidentiary testing of hypotheses Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University Law

Computational Theory Natural Possible Sciences. Hypotheses or Evidence in search of hypotheses Hypotheses in search of evidence Observation s of Events in Nature Evidentiary testing of hypotheses New Observable Phenomena Copyright 2013 Learning Agents Center, George Mason University Likeliness of New or Revised Explanations Theories