851 0585 04 L Modeling and Simulating Social

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851 -0585 -04 L – Modeling and Simulating Social Systems with MATLAB Lecture 1

851 -0585 -04 L – Modeling and Simulating Social Systems with MATLAB Lecture 1 – Introduction Karsten Donnay and Stefano Balietti Chair of Sociology, in particular of Modeling and Simulation © ETH Zürich | 2012 -09 -24

Lecture 1 – Contents § Formalities: rules and goals of the course § Introduction

Lecture 1 – Contents § Formalities: rules and goals of the course § Introduction to Modeling and Simulation § Introduction to GIT § What is MATLAB? § MATLAB basics: Variables, operators and data structures § Loops and conditional statements § Scripts and functions § § Exercises 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 2

Modelling and Simulating Social Systems with MATLAB Weekly lecture with computer exercises, each session

Modelling and Simulating Social Systems with MATLAB Weekly lecture with computer exercises, each session will be split into about 30 -40 minutes lecture and 50 -60 minutes exercises. We will put the lecture slides and other material on this web page: www. soms. ethz. ch/matlab 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 3

How to contact us § in the lecture; please do not hesitate to approach

How to contact us § in the lecture; please do not hesitate to approach us with any questions you might have § via email to [email protected] ch or [email protected] ch Important: to bypass the SPAM filter, start the subject line of your emails with: [MATLAB HS 12] e. g. [MATLAB HS 12] Ref. group dynamics 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 4

Mailing List § Send an email to: sympa@sympa. ethz. ch § � with text:

Mailing List § Send an email to: [email protected] ethz. ch § � with text: SUBSCRIBE msssm Your Name § E. g. SUBSCRIBE msssm Karsten Donnay § Text to unsubscribe: SIGNOFF msssm 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 5

Purpose of the Mailing List § Foster cooperation among students 1. Discuss technical issues

Purpose of the Mailing List § Foster cooperation among students 1. Discuss technical issues 2. Discuss organizational issues 3. Share code 4. Share references to literature 5. Share references to datasets 6. Form and communicate groups 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 6

Rules of the Mailing List 1. Be nice. 2. Be collaborative. 3. Do not

Rules of the Mailing List 1. Be nice. 2. Be collaborative. 3. Do not post attachments. 1. 2. Add links to external resources. Enclose portions of code in tags . 4. Do not spam. 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 7

Examination Format (please also refer to the course description) Students earn their credit points

Examination Format (please also refer to the course description) Students earn their credit points by: 1. implementing an established mathematical model from the social science literature in MATLAB; 2. producing a ~30 page seminar thesis (code must be included) 3. Presenting the results it in a 15 minute seminar talk. § “Submission” of the work through Git. Hub www. github. com [more details later on in the lecture] 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 8

Seminar thesis Studying a scientific paper 2012 -09 -24 Reproducing results in MATLAB K.

Seminar thesis Studying a scientific paper 2012 -09 -24 Reproducing results in MATLAB K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch Writing a report and giving a talk 9

Projects from previous semesters Sugarscape Civil violence Group dynamics Trust Facebook social networks Space

Projects from previous semesters Sugarscape Civil violence Group dynamics Trust Facebook social networks Space syntax Pedestrian dynamics Cycling strategies Tumour growth Segregation Cancer Traffic dynamics Swarms Sailing strategies Migration Flocks Cockroaches Arab Revolutions Civil war Queuing models Synchronized clapping Game theory tournament Game theory Language formation 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 10

Schedule of the course § The two first lectures will be spent on introducing

Schedule of the course § The two first lectures will be spent on introducing the basic functionality of MATLAB: matrix operations, data structures, conditional statements, statistics, plotting, etc. § In later lectures, we will introduce various modeling approaches from the social sciences: dynamical systems, cellular automata, game theory, networks, multi-agent systems, … 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 11

Schedule of the course Introduction to MATLAB 24. 09. 01. 10. 08. 10. 15.

Schedule of the course Introduction to MATLAB 24. 09. 01. 10. 08. 10. 15. 10. 22. 10. 29. 10. Working on projects (seminar thesis) 05. 11. 12. 11. 19. 11. Introduction to social-science modeling and simulations 26. 11. 03. 12. 10. 12. 17. 12. 2012 -09 -24 Handing in seminar thesis and giving a presentation K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 12

Schedule of the course § Please already take note of the dates for the

Schedule of the course § Please already take note of the dates for the hand-in and the oral presentation of your projects: § Deadline for project reports: Friday Dec. 14 th 2012 at midnight § Oral project presentations: Monday Dec. 17 th to Wednesday Dec. 19 th 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 13

Goals of the course: students will 1. Acquire firm understanding of the basics of

Goals of the course: students will 1. Acquire firm understanding of the basics of MATLAB. 2. Attain practical knowledge of MATLAB necessary to run computer simulations. 3. Learning how to implement (simple) models of various social processes and systems, replicating and extending established models of the literature. 4. Develop independence in adequately individuating and selecting further literature (internet, books, paper…) to expand your knowledge of MATLAB 5. Become confident in presenting scientific results in academic context. 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 14

Requisites of the Course § Highly interdisciplinary course: § Physics, Sociology, Game Theory, Biology,

Requisites of the Course § Highly interdisciplinary course: § Physics, Sociology, Game Theory, Biology, Computer Science, Software Engineering… § Real requisites: 1. Hard work 2. Curiosity and creativity 3. Scientific Methods 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 15

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations Heer, Bühler (2011) “Airplane Evacuation” 2012 -09 -24 K.

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations Heer, Bühler (2011) “Airplane Evacuation” 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 16

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations Crameri, Thielmann (2011) “Evacuation Bottlenecks in Flooding Events” 2012

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations Crameri, Thielmann (2011) “Evacuation Bottlenecks in Flooding Events” 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 17

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations Hardmeier, Jenal, Küng, Thaler (2012) “Modelling Situations of Evacuation

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations Hardmeier, Jenal, Küng, Thaler (2012) “Modelling Situations of Evacuation in a Multi-level Building” 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 18

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations § We model to better understand our world §

Introduction to Modeling and Simulations § We model to better understand our world § Simulations are a particular type of modeling § Simulations are relatively new § Predicting, discovering, formalizing § Entertainment (not the main purpose of the course!) 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 19

Emergence and Simulations § Focus on micro-mechanisms § Complexity theory § Emergence: “Interactions among

Emergence and Simulations § Focus on micro-mechanisms § Complexity theory § Emergence: “Interactions among objects at one level give rise to different types of objects at another level. ” 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 20

Emergence and Simulations Example of a Cellular Automata Game, Lecture 4 2012 -09 -24

Emergence and Simulations Example of a Cellular Automata Game, Lecture 4 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 21

Modeling Cycle Simulation Model Simulated data Similarity Abstraction Social processes Data gathering Collected Data

Modeling Cycle Simulation Model Simulated data Similarity Abstraction Social processes Data gathering Collected Data Source: Gilbert and Troitzsch (2005) 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 22

References § Gilbert, N. and Troitzsch K. G. “Simulation for the Social Scientist” 2

References § Gilbert, N. and Troitzsch K. G. “Simulation for the Social Scientist” 2 nd Ed. Open Uni. Press (2005) § Epstein J. M. and Axtell R. “Growing Artificial Societies. Social science from the bottom up” MIT Press (1996) § Epstein J. M. “Generative Social Science” Princeton Uni. Press (2006) 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 23

References § Helbing and Balietti “How to Do Agent-Based Simulations in the Future: From

References § Helbing and Balietti “How to Do Agent-Based Simulations in the Future: From Modeling Social Mechanisms to Emergent Phenomena and Interactive Systems Design” (2011) http: //www. santafe. edu/media/workingpapers/1106 -024. pdf 2012 -09 -24 K. Donnay & S. Balietti / [email protected] ch [email protected] ch 24