8 Decision Making Process Intelligence Phase Decision Making

การตดสนใจและการแกปญหา 8 กระบวนการตดสนใจ (Decision Making Process) คอ การกำหนดขนตอนในการตดสนใจแกไขปญหาทเกดข Intelligence Phase นอยางมหลกเกณฑ Decision Making Design Phase Process Problem Choice Phase Solving Process Implementation Phase Monitoring Phase

Notation Used in Decision Trees 11 A box is used to show a choice that the manager has to make. A circle is used to show that a probability outcome will occur. Lines connect outcomes to their choice or probability outcome.

Decision Tree Example 1 12 Joe’s garage is considering hiring another mechanic. The mechanic would cost them an additional $50, 000 / year in salary and benefits. If there a lot of accidents in City this year, they anticipate making an additional $75, 000 in net revenue. If there are not a lot of accidents, they could lose $20, 000 off of last year’s total net revenues. Because of all the ice on the roads, Joe thinks that there will be a 70% chance of “a lot of accidents” and a 30% chance of “fewer accidents”. Assume if he doesn’t expand he will have the same revenue as last year. Draw a decision tree for Joe and tell him what he should do? .

A Decision Tree for Joe ‘s Garage 13 . 7 Hire new mechanic Cost = $50, 000 70% chance of an increase in accidents Profit = $70, 000 . 3 30% chance of a decrease in accidents Profit = - $20, 000 Don’t hire new mechanic Cost = $0 • Estimated value of “Hire Mechanic” = NPV =. 7(70, 000) +. 3(- $20, 000) - $50, 000 = - $7, 000 • Therefore Joe should not hire the mechanic NPV = Net Present Value

Decision Tree Example 2 14 Mary is a manager of a gadget factory. Her factory has been quite successful the past three years. She is wondering whether or not it is a good idea to expand her factory this year. The cost to expand her factory is $1. 5 M. If she does nothing and the economy stays good and people continue to buy lots of gadgets she expects $3 M in revenue; while only $1 M if the economy is bad. If she expands the factory, she expects to receive $6 M if economy is good and $2 M if economy is bad. She also assumes that there is a 40% chance of a good economy and a 60% chance of a bad economy. (a) Draw a Decision Tree showing these choices.

A Decision Tree for Mary 15 . 4 40 % Chance of a Good Economy Profit = $6 M Expand Factory Cost = $1. 5 M . 6 60% Chance Bad Economy Profit = $2 M . 4 Don’t Expand Factory Cost = $0 . 6 Good Economy (40%) Profit = $3 M Bad Economy (60%) Profit = $1 M NPVExpand = (. 4(6) +. 6(2)) – 1. 5 = $2. 1 M NPVNo Expand =. 4(3) +. 6(1) = $1. 8 M $2. 1 > 1. 8, therefore you should expand the factory NPV = Net Present Value

16 Decision Table )If Conditions Then Actions) Conditions Condition Alternatives Action Entries Printer Troubleshooter Conditions Printer does not print Y Y N N A red light is flashing Y Y N N Printer is unrecognized Y N Y N Check the power cable Actions X Check the printer-computer cable X X Ensure printer software is installed X X Check/replace ink X Check for paper jam X X X X If Printer does not print AND A red light is flashing AND Printer is recognized Then Check/replace ink AND Check for paper jam

Example 17 Rule 1: IF THEN it is raining AND it is not warm today take an umbrella AND take an overcoat. IF THEN it is raining AND it is warm today take a raincoat IF THEN it is not raining AND the weather forecast is fine AND it is warm today do not take an umbrella, a raincoat, or an overcoat IF THEN it is not raining AND the weather forecast is fine AND it is not warm today take an overcoat IF THEN it is not raining AND the weather forecast is not fine AND it is warm today take an umbrella IF THEN if is not raining AND the weather forecast is not fine AND it is not warm today take an umbrella AND take an overcoat Rule 2: Rule 3: Rule 4: Rule 5: Rule 6:

Example 18 Weather Forecast Conditions It is raining Y Y N N the weather forecast is fine Y Y N N It is warm today Y N Y N X X Actions Take A raincoat Take An overcoat X X Take an umbrella X X X

ประเภทการตดสนใจจำแนกตาม ระดบการจดการในองคกร 22 Top Strategic Decision Middle Management Tactical Decision Operational Decision Lower Management

Dictionary 26 DSS Decision Support System EIS Executive Information System MIS Management Information System TPS Transaction Processing System ES OAS Expert System Office Automation System

ระบบสารสนเทศเพอสนบสนนการตด 27 DSS Top EIS Management Middle Management MIS TPS ES Lower Management Generic Management OAS สนใจ