8 Conclusion Creating Incentives Removing Obstacles Technology diffusion

8 Conclusion Creating Incentives & Removing Obstacles

Technology diffusion and unilateral responses to multilateral failures • It has not been possible to reach adequate multilateral agreements with respect to: – – climate change finance intellectual property rights for plant varieties multilateral investment agreement international trade in environmental goods and services • Multilateral progress in all of these areas would facilitate technology diffusion and diminish the need for unilateral action.

Unilateral, multilateral • Unilateral measures can serve as catalysts for multilateral action on climate change. • Climate change agreements should either comply with or prompt modifications to international economic law. • Risk of regulatory capture needs to be addressed for both.

Plurilateral/sectoral alternative • Encompassing major players: – environmental goods and services – GHG emissions • MFN basis • Open for others to join later

Anti-carbon duties? • Antidumping Agreement and the SCM Agreement’s rules on countervailing duties might serve as a model for regulating use anti-carbon duties. • Measurement of carbon footprints may be difficult, but investigating authorities are already set up to measure complex economic and legal issues.

‘Climate Sensitivity Index’ • Policy depends on maturity of financial markets or national regulatory institutions • Incentives to take mitigation and adaptation measures are asymmetrical • Developed/developing typology ignores: – the global nature of problem – potential seriousness of the consequences – great variation among countries in vulnerability to and capacity to adapt to climate change – financial and technological endowments of countries change over time • Assign responsibility on an objective scale.

Unilateral trade measures • Precede with good faith efforts to reach a negotiated solution. • Degree of urgency may require greater or lesser effort to negotiate. • Apply flexibly to take into account different conditions among countries. • Comply with transparency and procedural fairness. • Design & apply in accordance with GATT Article XX to minimize risk of regulatory capture.

Uncertain future, grave risks • We can estimate: – future GHG concentrations – probability of a range of temperature increases, • BUT we cannot say precisely: – what the temperature increase will be, – how that temperature increase will vary from one part of the planet to another – what the ecological and economic effects will be.

Focus on risks, not uncertainty • Do not debate whether we have underestimated or overestimated the proximity and severity of these risks. • Address risks through mitigation and adaptation: – Create incentives for multilateral action. – Remove obstacles to financing dissemination of mitigation and adaptation technologies.

Thank you!