613 728 00 UTC Normal Two way 728

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結果 再現性の確認 6/13 台風の進路 寒冷渦の進路 7/28 00 UTC 黒線：ベストトラック 赤線：Normal 青線：Two way 7/28 00

結果 再現性の確認 6/13 台風の進路 寒冷渦の進路 7/28 00 UTC 黒線：ベストトラック 赤線：Normal 青線：Two way 7/28 00 UTC 黒線：GSM 赤線：Normal 青線：Two way 7/26 0: 00以降24時間ごとに印 台風の中心気圧(h. Pa) 寒冷渦中心のジオポテンシャル高度 1005 9700 995 9650 985 9600 GSM 975 Normal Two way 965 955 945 7. 26. 2018 0: 00 GSM 9550 Normal Two way 9500 9450 7. 28. 2018 0: 00 7. 30. 2018 0: 00 8. 1. 2018 0: 00 9400 7. 26. 2018 0: 00 7. 28. 2018 0: 00 7. 30. 2018 0: 00 8. 1. 2018 0: 00

結果 Normalでの寒冷渦の衰弱 9/13 Normal実験での寒冷渦の衰退 寒冷渦中心の 300 h. Pa面の温度(℃) 寒冷渦中心の 300 h. Pa面ジオポテンシャル高度(m) 9660 -27

結果 Normalでの寒冷渦の衰弱 9/13 Normal実験での寒冷渦の衰退 寒冷渦中心の 300 h. Pa面の温度(℃) 寒冷渦中心の 300 h. Pa面ジオポテンシャル高度(m) 9660 -27 9640 -29 9620 9600 GSM 9580 Normal 9560 Two way GSM Normal -33 Two way -35 9540 -37 9520 9500 7. 26. 2018 0: 00 -31 7. 28. 2018 0: 00 7. 30. 2018 0: 00 -39 7. 26. 2018 0: 00 7. 28. 2018 0: 00 7. 30. 2018 0: 00 Normal実験ではジオポテンシャル高度の上昇と共に温度も上昇 Normal実験では寒冷渦の衰退が早い

参考文献 Chan, C. L. , and R. T. Williams, 1987: Analytical and numerical studies

参考文献 Chan, C. L. , and R. T. Williams, 1987: Analytical and numerical studies of the beta-effect in tropical cyclone motion. Part Ⅰ: Zero mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci. , 44, 1257 -1265. Lei L, Ge Y, Tan Z, Bao X. 2020. An evaluation and improvement of tropical cyclone prediction in the western North Pacific basin from global ensemble forecasts. Science China Earth Sciences, 63: 12– 26 気象庁報道発表資料(2018年 7月27日) https: //www. jma. go. jp/jma/press/1807/27 d/kaisetsu 2018072714. pdf 気象庁台風経路図 https: //www. data. jma. go. jp/fcd/yoho/typhoon/route_map/bstv 2018. html

台風 寒冷渦 1005 9620 9600 995 9580 985 9560 GSM 975 2018 GSM 9540

台風 寒冷渦 1005 9620 9600 995 9580 985 9560 GSM 975 2018 GSM 9540 2018 2008 9520 965 2008 9500 955 945 7. 26. 2018 0: 00 9480 7. 2018 0: 00 7. 28. 2018 0: 00 7. 29. 2018 0: 00 7. 30. 2018 0: 00 9460 7. 26. 2018 0: 00 7. 28. 2018 0: 00 7. 29. 2018 0: 00 7. 30. 2018 0: 00 2008年のSSTを入れると台風は発達 寒冷渦は 2018より弱くなってしまった 台風の進路の差は小さく、ベストトラック よりかなり内側

Rough CTL 1. 000, 0. 9952, 0. 9903, 0. 9855, 0. 9807, 0. 976,

Rough CTL 1. 000, 0. 9952, 0. 9903, 0. 9855, 0. 9807, 0. 976, 0. 9711, 0. 966, 0. 9608, 0. 9554, 0. 9499, 0. 9441, 0. 938, 0. 9317, 0. 9251, 0. 9182, 0. 911, 0. 9033, 0. 8952, 0. 8867, 0. 8777, 0. 8682, 0. 8581, 0. 8474, 0. 836, 0. 8239, 0. 8112, 0. 7976, 0. 7833, 0. 7681, 0. 752, 0. 7351, 0. 7174, 0. 6987, 0. 6792, 0. 6589, 0. 6378, 0. 6159, 0. 5933, 0. 5701, 0. 5464, 0. 5222, 0. 4978, 0. 096, 0. 0854, 0. 0757, 0. 0668, 0. 0587, 0. 0512, 0. 0444, 0. 0382, 0. 0325, 0. 0274, 0. 0227, 0. 0184, 0. 0145, 0. 011, 0. 0079, 0. 005, 0. 0024, 0. 000, 0. 4731, 0. 4483, 0. 4235, 0. 3989, 0. 3745, 0. 3505, 0. 327, 0. 3041, 0. 2818, 0. 2602, 0. 2395, 0. 2196, 0. 1983, 0. 1803, 0. 1635, 0. 1479, 0. 1333, 0. 1199, 0. 1075, 0. 096, 0. 0854, 0. 0757, 0. 0668, 0. 0587, 0. 0512, 0. 0444, 0. 0382, 0. 0325, 0. 0274, 0. 0227, 0. 0184, 0. 0145, 0. 011, 0. 0079, 0. 005, 0. 0024, 0. 000,

600 h. Pa面の風

600 h. Pa面の風

500 300

500 300

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