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33 w/c 12/8/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Trump says he wants Fed to lower rates by 1%; Trump may cancel Sept China meeting; Yet more NK missile launches Events Risk Off Themes Tuesday Wednesday Fears of Chinese intervention in Hong Kong after protesters close airport; Possibility of Italian elections with winner’s large budget deficit an issue for EU; Possibility of Argentina default; US/Chins/global trade concerns Tues c 1430 - Tariffs delayed on China until 15 th December (from 1 st Sept) On Off Thursday US 2 s/10 s inverts for first time since 2007. US 30 yr < 2% for first time. Neutral Equities, GBP and AUD shorts USD At 2 yr + highs EUR Down trend broken JPY At 3 yr high GBP Post-referendum low CAD At 1 yr high AUD At 4 yr low NZD Weakening Headline/Core CPI Retail Sales DE Prelim GDP (-0. 1% as expected) FR, IT Holiday CPI Retail Sales Wage Price Index; Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Un)employment Holiday Average Earnings Index Asset Investment; Industrial Production (slowest pace in 17 years) CNY Equities Pulling back Gold Breakout up Oil Rangebound API Inventories: +3. 7 m vs -2. 8 m EIA Inventories: +1. 6 m vs -2. 5 m Friday Neutral/on
Week 33 Review We saw a lot of negative sentiment last week – US/China trade war, possible Chinese intervention in Honk Kong; Italian elections and a possible show-down with EU; the risk of an Argentinian default; US 2 - and 10 - year yield inversion; US 30 year yield going below 2% for the first time ever; a GDP contraction in Germany and Chinese Industrial Production slowing to a level not seen in 17 years. Wow. Despite all this gloom, equities rallied on Thursday and Friday to end the week down but considerably higher than the lows seen earlier in the week. GOLD rose over the week and WTI did nothing. On the FX markets, the USD rose slightly; the JPY, amazingly, weakened slightly; the EUR was bashed by the German GDP number; the GBP moved up on decent economic news and a lot of political talk about preventing a no-deal Brexit; there was little movement in the commodity currencies.
34 w/c 19/8/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Decision today re further 90 day extension to licence allowing some business with Huawei; Kudlow links China response to HK protesters to trade deal Events Risk On Themes USD Monday Tuesday Wednesday US VP Pence says China must respect HK laws agreed in Sino. British joint declaration for a trade deal to happen Off Thursday Jackson Hole On Friday Jackson Hole G 7 (Sat, Sun, France); China announces retaliatory tariffs to begin 1 st Sept; Trump counters with 5% increase in current and new tariffs; orders US companies out of China and suggests nuking hurricanes Neutral Off Equity rally; GBP rally overdone? ; Big day for EUR on Thursday; GOLD short; strong USD EUR Down trend broken JPY At 3 yr high GBP Post-referendum low CAD 1 yr resistance holding AUD At 4 yr low NZD Weakening FR Flash Services and Manu PMI DE Flash Services and Manu PMI ECB Monetary Policy Mtg Mins – slowdown more protracted than thought, downside risks could necessitate rate cut GBP rises as Merkel says deal possible CPI Pulling back Gold Breakout up Oil Rangebound Retail Sales API Inventories: EIA Inventories: Positive noises from Merkel and Macron re Brexit Core Retail Sales Monetary Policy Mtg Mins – nothing new CNY Equities Powell speaks – concerned about slowing global growth, trade wars and muted inflation FOMC Mtg Mins – No impact on markets At 2 yr + highs
Week 34 Review It was a quiet week ahead of the G 7 meeting in France over the weekend. Things kicked off on Friday when China announced retaliatory tariffs against the US to come into effect at the same time as the next tranche of US tariffs (1 st Sept). Trump immediately increased current and proposed tariffs by 5%. Equities plunged. Trump also seemed to decree (without the power to do so) that US companies leave China. I’m not even going to discuss Trump’s suggestion to nuke hurricanes before they get to the US shore. Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole summit and said he was concerned about three things: slowing global growth; trade wars and muted US inflation. On Brexit, there were positive soundbites from Merkel and Macron on Brexit. Equities were doing OK until Friday, with all indices closing down on the week after Friday’s slew of sentiment-killing announcements. On FX, the star performer was the GBP; the USD took a step down; all three commodity currencies were down, as you would expect given the sentiment, JPY was up on negative sentiment and the EUR moved up ever so slightly. All-in-all, a very sour end to the week.
35 w/c 26/8/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Tuesday G 7 meetings Trump emollient on China, France tech tax (deal in 2020) and Iran; Italian political crisis abates Events Risk Neutral/on Themes Neutral/on Wednesday Thursday Friday US Treasury Sec Mnuchin says administration has considered countering USD strength, but no plan to do so yet China’s Mofcom say both sides are talking and China does not plan to immediately retaliate against US sanctions Neutral/on On Neutral Equities, weak commodity currencies vs USD (maybe GBP) USD At 2 yr + highs Prelim GDP Core PCE Price Index EUR Down trend broken DE Prelim CPI Flash Estimate JPY At 3 yr high GBP Bounce off postreferendum low CAD 1 yr resistance holding AUD At 4 yr low NZD At 1 year low Tokyo Core CPI Holiday PM prorogues parliament GDP RBA Dep Gov Debelle says rate floor is 0%-0. 50% (currently 1. 00%) Business Confidence CNY Equities Manufacturing PMI (Sat am) Pulling back – 50 MA support Gold Breakout up Oil Rangebound API Inventories: -11. 1 m vs -2. 1 m EIA Inventories: -10. 0 m vs -2. 8 m
Week 35 Review Week 35 started well with Trump being more emollient on China and further boosted on Thursday with the Chinese Mofcom making positive noises about US/China talks and also saying they would not immediately retaliate to new US sanctions scheduled to begin on 1 st Sept (Sunday). Risk sentiment was neutral or positive across the week. Equities had a good, solid up week and the USD rose. GOLD fell from highs. WTI was down and remained rangebound. The EUR has been falling throughout August. The GBP continued it’s fall as PM Johnson prorogued parliament. The Aussie and the Kiwi fell. The JPY was flat as it reflected the risk sentiment. Trading was difficult as there was little volatility outside of equities and even the absence of sustained positive sentiment made trading riskier that normal.
36 w/c 2/9/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Tuesday Additional US tariffs come into effect, immediate Chinese retaliation; Hurricane Dorian downgraded to cat 4 and stuck on Bahamas Events Risk Neutral Themes Wednesday Extradition bill withdrawn in Honk Kong Neutral/on Thursday Friday 2: 27 am Thurs - China’s Mofcom said US and China to hold talks in Washington in October, consultations mid Sept On On Equities (sentiment); GBP (Politics), strong USD, weak AUD, NZD Holiday ISM Manu PMI; Fed voter Bullard favours 50 bp cut GBP Bounce off postreferendum low Big Brexit Week UK Manufacturing PMI MPs will try to seize control of Parliament today for Bill banning no-deal (vote Wed) - achieved Construction PMI CAD 1 yr resistance holding Holiday USD At 2 yr + highs EUR Down trend broken JPY At 3 yr high AUD At 4 yr low NZD At 1 year low CNY Retail Sales; Cash Rate, Statement – no change as expected, global economy reasonable, nothing said to increase chances of cut at next meeting Average Hourly Earnings; Non-Farm Employment Unemployment Powell - upbeat Services PMI; Inflation Report Hearings; Vote on Rebel Bill (passed), Election (failed) Lords approve Rebel Alliance bill Trade Balance; Overnight Rate, Statement – No mention on future rate moves (Un)employment GDP Trade Balance API Inventories: +0. 4 m vs -2. 5 m EIA Inventories: -4. 8 m vs -2. 4 m Caixin Manu PMI Equities Rangebound Gold Breakout up Oil Rangebound
Week 36 Review A solid week of reasonable risk sentiment with most days being “neutral” to “on”, aided on Thursday with positive noises on the US/China trade war. Global equities rose and GOLD fell back. WTI remained range-bound. The GBP saw a gain over the week as the markets saw the Brexit shenanigans as being positive for the economy and ignored the three PMI misses. The JPY reflected the risk sentiment by showing weakness. The USD was negatively affected by a poor ISM Manufacturing PMI number and some dovish Fedspeak on Tuesday and a miss on NFP on Friday. The EUR fell without apparent catalyst. The mood buoyed all three commodity currencies, as expected. I traded the GBPUSD long for a gain of 2. 4% and the Japan 225 long for a gain of 1. 77%.
37 w/c 9/9/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Storm Dorian hits US and now in Canada Events Risk On Themes USD Tuesday China ready to buy US goods as sweetener prior to trade talks; Trump fires National Security Advisor Bolton – global risk premium declines On Wednesday Thursday Friday On On On Core and Headline PPI Core and Headline CPI Core and Headline Retail Sales China announce tariff exemption list, Trump delays tariff increase from 1 st to 15 th October; UN prep for US/Iran meeting Sentiment driven – equities, Commodity currencies, GBP At 2 yr + highs EUR Down trend broken JPY At 3 yr high GBP Bounce off postreferendum low CAD 1 yr resistance holding AUD At 4 yr low NZD At 1 year low CNY Refinancing Rate, Statement and Press Conference – deposit rate cut by 10 bp; QE re-introduced – EUR 20 b/mth GDP, Manufacturing Production Average Earnings Index NAB Business Confidence (1 vs prior 4) – sees rate at 0. 50% as of Feb 2020 (from 0. 75%) Westpac Consumer Sentiment Business NZ Manufacturing Index CPI Equities Rangebound Gold Breakout up Oil Monday Rangebound API Inventories: -7. 2 m vs -2. 7 m Holiday EIA Inventories – -6. 9 m vs -2. 7 m; OPEC downgrades global growth in oil demand; Production cut compliance at 131%. OPEC/JMMC Meetings
Week 37 Review Week 37 was a pretty solid risk-on week. The first in a long time. A lot of big issues seemed to fade slightly: the US and China seemed to be making positive moves towards each other, National Security Advisor Bolton was sacked and the UN was preparing for a US/Iran meeting. Global equities rose with the Japan 225 being the star performer, bolstered by the weak JPY. GOLD moved down on the positive risk sentiment. WTI didn’t do much. On currencies, the GBP rose as chances of a no-deal Brexit lessened. AUD was bolstered by the sentiment. The ECB re-introduced QE at the rate of EUR 20 B/month. This is a bad sign for the Eurozone economy. US 2 Y and 1 Y bond yields rose, as bond prices fell on the positive sentiment.
38 w/c 16/9/19 Current Trend W 1 chart Monday Drone attack on Saudi refineries (over weekend); US blaming Iran Events Risk Neutral Themes Wednesday Fed makes two interventions into repo market – showing unusual lack of liquidity in banking system Trump prefers sanctions to military action re Iran 3 rd repo intervention – Powell seems relaxed Neutral Thursday Friday Off Equities (watch sentiment), GOLD, USD (Fed), GBP (Super Thursday, Brexit - newsflow), AUD USD Pulling back from high EUR Rallying from low JPY Sentiment-driven pull back Holiday GBP Bounce off postreferendum low UK PM meets EC Pres Juncker - shambles CAD Pulling back from high AUD Rallying from 4 yr low NZD Rallying from 1 year low Fed Funds Rate etc DE ZEW Economic Sentiment Monetary Policy Statement; Rate – no drama CPI Equities 3 weeks of gains Gold Sentiment-driven pullback 13% spike – drone attack Retail Sales; Super Thursday – no drama CPI Monetary Policy Mtg Minutes – little change from previous GDP Energy Intel say Saudi outage 40% restored with remainder due on stream by month end Saudis say oil supply fully back online API Inventories: +0. 6 m vs -2. 5 m Core Retail Sales (Un)employment Fixed Asset Investment; Industrial production CNY Oil Tuesday EIA Inventories: +1. 1 m vs -2. 1 m
Week 38 Review The week starts badly with a drone-strike on Saudi oil facilities. Iran is blamed. Oil spikes 13% but gives half of that back as Aramco say they are fully back on line. The Fed makes multiple interventions into the overnight repo market, causing concern at the structure of the global banking system. The Fed reduces interest rates by 25 bp as expected and is seen as hawkish. Neither that Bo. J nor the Bo. E cause any drama in their rate-setting meetings. Equity indices show little movement. The GOLD dip comes to a halt on the relatively poor sentiment compared to prior week, week 37. The USD rises after a fortnight of pulling back. The EUR hits a two-year low. The JPY rises on worsening sentiment. The GBP moves sideways on a lack of catalysts. AUD and NZD drop as sentiment sours. CAD rises on the oil price. US 10 Y and 2 Y bond yields drop, reflecting the sentiment.
39 w/c 23/9/19 Current Trend W 1 chart US grant tariff exemptions to China; China state media say deputy-level talks constructive; NY Fed to conduct overnight repo every day until 10 th Oct Events Risk Neutral Themes USD Monday Tuesday Wednesday Friday Final GDP Core Durable Goods; Core PCE Price Index Trump impeachment proceedings begin in the US; Trump hawkish on China at UN Off Gauge sentiment – EURO 50, GOLD, GBP (skewed to upside), EUR weakness Pulling back from high CB Consumer Confidence EUR At 2 year low DE, FR Manufacturing and Services PMI; ECB President Draghi – growth momentum slowed markedly JPY Sentiment-driven pull back over Holiday GBP Bounce off postreferendum low CAD Pulling back from high AUD Down trend near 4 yr low NZD Approaching 4 year low Tokyo Core CPI Prorogation verdict expected – Gov lose Parliament re-starts RBA Gov Lowe – optimistic, lowering rate cut expectation Rate and Statement – no change, new info did not warrant change to policy CNY Equities Thursday 3 weeks of gains Gold Sentiment-driven pull back over Oil Benefitting from drone attack Saudi Aramco backpedal on repairs – now “many months” API Inventories: +1. 4 m vs -0. 2 m EIA Inventories