30 Cheng Few Lee Distinguished Professor of Finance

30多年來參與兩岸財經政策與學術活動之回顧與展望 Cheng Few Lee Distinguished Professor of Finance, Rutgers University , USA Editor

0. 00 -2. 00 -4. 00 15 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002

0 16 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973

1952~2014 台灣經濟成長率及GDP摘要 GDP ( US$ Million) Economic Growth Rate Mean 7. 747301587 151998. 68

0. 00 18 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Summary of GDP per Capita 1980~2014 Hong Kong 19 Japan Korea Singapore Taiwan China

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986

1960~2014 六國匯率摘要新台幣港幣韓元新加坡元人民幣 Mean 34. 5366 203. 952 6. 81416

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30多年來參與兩岸財經政策與學術活動之回顧與展望 Cheng Few Lee Distinguished Professor of Finance, Rutgers University , USA Editor of RQFA, RPBFMP, AFPF, AIAPM and AQAFA lee@business. rutgers. edu 2016. 5. 28 2016金融與經濟政策研討會 1

0. 00 -2. 00 -4. 00 15 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 -2015 Economic Growth Rate of Taiwan 16. 00 14. 00 12. 00 10. 00 8. 00 6. 00 Economic Growth Rate (%) 4. 00 2. 00

0 16 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015(p) 1952~2015 GDP of Taiwan at Current Price 600, 000 500, 000 400, 000 300, 000 200, 000 Amount (Million US$) 100, 000

1952~2014 台灣經濟成長率及GDP摘要 GDP ( US$ Million) Economic Growth Rate Mean 7. 747301587 151998. 68 Standard Error 0. 445656641 21526. 635 7. 72 54169 Standard Deviation 3. 537289926 170862. 37 Kurtosis 0. 159341455 -0. 884315 Skewness -0. 378423027 0. 7561679 Range 15. 85 528116 Minimum -1. 57 1399 Maximum 14. 28 529515 63 63 Median Count 17

0. 00 18 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US$ 1980~2015 GDP per Capita 70, 000. 00 60, 000. 00 50, 000. 00 Hong Kong SAR 40, 000. 00 Japan 30, 000. 00 Korea Singapore 20, 000. 00 Taiwan China 10, 000. 00

Summary of GDP per Capita 1980~2014 Hong Kong 19 Japan Korea Singapore Taiwan China Mean Standard Error Median Standard Deviation 21309. 1 1766. 85 24732. 9 10452. 8 30028 1883. 58 34038. 3 11143. 4 12041. 1 1352. 5 11255. 9 8001. 47 24016. 7 2636. 6 21824. 1 15598. 3 11747. 4 996. 386 13107. 6 5894. 7 1698. 05 349. 608 796. 793 2068. 31 Kurtosis Skewness Range Minimum Maximum Count -1. 0827 -0. 154 34653 5650. 95 40304 35 -0. 5545 -0. 7381 37218. 3 9312. 77 46531. 1 35 -0. 9213 0. 43942 26960. 3 1778. 47 28738. 7 35 -0. 4352 0. 70324 51109. 1 5003. 89 56113 35 -1. 0462 -0. 2085 19208. 2 2363. 43 21571. 6 35 1. 89297 1. 71197 7290. 46 281. 898 7572. 36 35

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 相對匯率 (以 1960 年匯率為基準) 1960~2014 匯率趨勢比較 25 20 20 15 韓元新台幣日圓 10 港幣新加坡元 5 人民幣 0

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 相對匯率 (以 1960 年匯率為基準) 1960~2014 匯率趨勢比較 (排除韓元) 4 21 3. 5 3 2. 5 新台幣 2 日圓 1. 5 港幣新加坡元 1 人民幣 0. 5 0

1960~2014 六國匯率摘要新台幣港幣韓元新加坡元人民幣 Mean 34. 5366 203. 952 6. 81416 721. 225 2. 10906 4. 68901 Standard Error 0. 66618 13. 9702 0. 15692 48. 7636 0. 08329 0. 36259 Median 34. 5752 144. 792 7. 73583 771. 273 2. 10598 3. 7221 Standard Deviation 4. 94053 103. 606 1. 16378 361. 64 0. 61767 2. 68904 Kurtosis -1. 2721 -1. 4392 -1. 4633 -1. 0847 -1. 1482 -1. 6841 Skewness -0. 3625 0. 44545 -0. 5423 -0. 0742 0. 41429 0. 30893 Range 14. 8971 280. 21 3. 156 1338. 32 1. 81154 7. 1821 Minimum 25. 1629 79. 7905 4. 662 63. 125 1. 24968 1. 4984 Maximum 40. 06 360 7. 818 1401. 44 3. 06122 8. 6805 55 55 55 Count 22 日圓