3 Person Mixture 3 The Hickey Case Consensual

3 Person Mixture #3 The Hickey Case Consensual or Suspect? ?

Scenario • The event occurred in a hotel room closet where Victim went to pass out in peace • There were a total of 5 people “socializing” that night • But, she was pretty sure it was a guy that had sex with her in that hotel room closet • A condom wrapper was found in the closet

Scenario • Kit was negative for semen, condom used? • But, Victim had a hickey on her neck • Victim says she “messed around” with another girl, but “nothing really happened” • She says she would “never make out with a girl” but she was really drunk • Evidence is a swab of the hickey on V’s neck

The Egram

The Confusion • I’m getting conflicting information from the investigator • I can’t tell if the other girl will be considered a “consensual” partner or another suspect • They refer to her various ways in the supporting documentation • Case happened on the other side of the world, so it’s hard for me to call the Investigator

The Confusion • The defense may argue the other girl was at least a consensual “make out” partner to advance their theory that Victim was “in the mood” and it was consensual • Who knows? Perhaps Victim may claim assault against the other girl, making the other girl a suspect • So I decide to hedge my bets and prepare to do it both ways

Start the Interpretation • • Start by hiding C? and S profiles Apply Victim reference Set to 3 people Autocall references – List foreign box – View call report

Start the Interpretation • We’re going to discuss some things about some loci, then I’m going to do a whole bunch of clicking to get the profiles interpreted/deconvoluted • Hopefully, I’ll explain it well enough during the discussion that you’ll follow it easily enough • If not, someone yell at me and I’ll do so

Start the Interpretation • Here’s where we start (1 option only at D 8) We learned: V is midlevel There is a Major Male is minor ≈5% (We knew that due to small Y) We could have eyeballed it Don’t worry about these names, it’s just the default for 3 people

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • So here’s a novel idea based on: – Several loci with no minor visible alleles – Minor is <10% apparently – With “good” data like this, “typical” mixture proportion variation falls into a 10% window – Minor is within the “margin of error” • Forget about the minor and just worry about the Major and the minor Major (V) • But we won’t switch to 3 person

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • At the following loci you can easily call the Major because the minor Major is the profile of the Victim (her own neck swab) • In fact even though there are multiple options for contributor combinations, the center section is the same in every option • (So you know what the Major type is)

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present D 21 (Example) THO 1 D 7 D 3 TPOX D 19 No confusion about Major at these loci in calculator Most of these we can “eyeball” pretty well

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • Start at D 21 • V is 29, 30 • The center section below will always be the major

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • Every center option requires 28, 30. 2 for major • Also minor <10%

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present D 21 (Example) THO 1 D 7 D 3 TPOX D 19 No confusion about Major at these loci in calculator Most of these we can “eyeball” pretty well

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • There are 3 loci with same type in all contributor options, but some are “not excluded” types so no P/PHR info (D 18) • But, there is a subtle pink highlighting to some types that means “RFUs below HT” - minor So ignore pink

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • 3 loci with common foreign type to all options • Is always the major, or at least no pink flag D 18 D 16 D 5

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • CSF requires shared types • Correct for stutter, and the 11, 11 is the major type • Plus the “eye ball” method helps

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • Three loci have quite a few options in calculator (we stayed in 3 person mode) FGA v. WA D 13

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • FGA - all options but the bottom one have a 21, 22 Major • But that option is kind of 1: 1: 1 Plus you can eyeball it and tell you have a 21, 22 but no clue about third minor person

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • v. WA – Even though lots of options it’s really a no brainer knowing V is 16, 16 Major is 17, 18 Only the options for a 17, 18 have tiny minor for the 3 rd person

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • • D 13 – V is 11, 13 Appears to be lots of options But 13, 13 no good for a major If 11, 11 major, then V proportion = 79% not 30 ish So V and Major are both 11, 13 contributors

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • We’ve ended up with a full deconvoluted major profile • If you assume the V, you may be able to “eyeball” and do it also • But we used phr and p information to do it

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • Now we check to see if we have a match • Just for fun, let’s match backwards • We’ll set the deconvoluted major profile as the reference and back check against the known samples • (This works well in big cases with mulitple known references)

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • The deconvoluted profile is a perfect match against the C? sample • (Our girl that may or may not be a consensual or a suspect)

Interpret As Two Unknowns Present • Single source stat • 1 in 346 Sextillion • But check Hispanic – Septillion!

The Third Contributor • We have a low level male contributor that we’ve ignored so far • But we decided he was so low that he didn’t have any bearing on the other two contributors • So treat it as a Type 0 Mixture – It’s just a partial profile – Probably a bunch of Allele, Any’s

The Egram

The Third Contributor • 2 minor alleles at D 8, so we know the type • D 3 and D 19 >300, but test for stutter – Obligate function? – If I forget to check stutter for D 3 and D 19 when we click it into the Questioned profile, remind me • Use Allele, Any’s – In most 3 person “real life” mixtures I’ll probably default to Allele, Any for anything close to 300 as they’re much more unpredictable than a 2 person mixture near HT

The Third Contributor • 4 loci with no minor alleles showing • D 13 and v. WA amp pretty well, so maybe no drop out (D 13 has only 2 alleles, can do 2 Anys) • FGA doesn’t always amp well and is largest red locus • CSF is very large locus

The Third Contributor • Final stat (almost, v. WA is 90% of population, not 100%) • 1 in 85. 3 Million (It should be 94. 1 Million)

The Third Contributor • Let’s check to see if suspect fits that minor

Final Thoughts • This was actually really easy mixture, with an obvious major and obvious partial profile • Those loci with no minor alleles called – LR would use those loci – Why can’t we use them in RMP? – It makes no sense not to – But remember, sometimes LR will favor defense at loci where there is drop out (FGA) – RMP can’t do that, but becomes “Neutral”- 1. 00

Final Thoughts • But RMP is much more powerful than perhaps you realized • Are you sure you need LR (with drop out? ) • (It would be nice to have it though… Stand by) • Oh yeah, and the program rounds to 1. 0 for any RMP that adds up to >1. 0