27 The Future of Energy 2010 Crude Oil

27 The Future of Energy 2010 Crude Oil NYMEX: $74 on 1/27/10 $102 on 9/29/2008 $90 Low on 9/15/08 $147 High on 7/11/08 $65. 71 on 4/25/07 Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E. , M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE Adjunct Professor, Florida Tech 1/28/2010, Rev. 1. 4 fleslie @fit. edu; (321) 674 -7377 my. fit. edu/~fleslie CNNMoney. com

Introduction l Sustainable energy comes from the sun or from tidal forces of the moon and sun l Sustainable” implies not using energy faster than the energy can be replenished l In a broader sense, sustainability is not using all our resources, but leaving something for future generations l Since fossil fuels represent millions of years of “stored sunlight”, they are depleting and not sustainable l Future predictions are predicated upon uncertain trends and assumptions (how much are they wrong? ) l The future is ill-defined! 100125

Does Energy Affect our Lives? Happy New Yorkers out for a Stroll! Are they having fun? Why did this happen? 080820 FOXnews 8/15/2003

1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over! l “Hubbert’s Peak” indicates US oil production peaked about 1970; World peak might be 2007 -9 l Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend is up as extraction becomes more expensive l Volatile gasoline and diesel prices are increasing erratically in the long term! l Natural gas prices are rising and massive hydrogen production will speed that trend u. Hydrogen will be made from natural gas first, then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun --- a matter of cost 100127

1. Overview of Energy Sources l Currently, energy primarily comes from combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear energy l Electricity and hydrogen are energy carriers, not primary sources! l In some areas of the World, wind energy is being significantly developed: Europe, United States, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, India, China are a few l Energy sources are so critical to civilizations that many wars have been fought over these resources l Lack of common local energy sources can hold back the development of a nation 080820

1. 1. 1 Energy Source Categories Non renewable Conventional Alternative 080805 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Fission Renewable

1. 1. 2 Energy Source Categories Conventional Alternative 080805 Non renewable Renewable Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Fission Wood Hydro Human/Animal Wind Water Pumping

1. 1. 3 Energy Source Categories Non renewable Conventional Alternative 080805 Renewable Coal Wood Oil Hydro Gas Human/Animal Nuclear Wind Water Pumping Fission Geothermal Oil Shale, CTL Tar Sands Methane Hydrates

1. 1. 4 Energy Source Categories Conventional Alternative Non renewable Renewable Coal Oil Gas Wood Hydro Human/Animal Nuclear Fission Wind Water Pumping Geothermal Oil Shale, CTL Tar Sands Wind Solar Biomass Wave/Tide Ocean Current Methane Hydrates 080820 l. Sustainable means using less than is renewed; if water is withdrawn from a dam faster than it is refilled, the level drops and hydro power is lessened, and finally fails

1. 1. 5 Energy Sources (2006) http: //www. eia. doe. gov/cneaf/solar. renewables/page/trends/highlight 1. html 080825

A Hydrogen Economy in 2050? https: //publicaffairs. llnl. gov

1. 2 Fossil Fuels l Long-stored energy from fossil fuels that will be eventually depleted, while renewable energy is sustainable indefinitely l As easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise in getting the more-difficult resources; drill oil at 12, 000 feet? l Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus increasing total price of it and what’s made with it 080813

1. 2. 1 Energy Dependence upon Foreign Countries l Our dependency on cheap oil has lead to a slavish relationship to the oil dealers u(US dependency on cheap drugs has lead to a slavish relationship with the drug dealers) l So do we need a “ 12 -step way” to free us from our oil addiction? Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be at the mercy of outside despots? --- OR --Should we use imported oil first to save our US oil for hard times later? 080907

1. 2. 2 US Crude Oil Sources (2008) l US demands 19. 9 million bbl petroleum/day but produces 5 million crude; 9. 8 million bbl crude/day is imported l Some crude is exported, refined elsewhere, and imported as gasoline since the US is short refinery capacity u. Still, how to economically justify building a 40 -year life refinery for 20 -year depleting oil? l The offshore continental shelf (OSC) plus western lands might add 3 million barrels per day, but that wouldn’t drive the price much lower 100125

1. 2. 3 US Energy Imports --- 9/2008 or so l Crude oil, for example; 11 million barrel/day (Mbd) u Canada u Saudi Arabia 1. 883 Mbd 1. 479 Mbd (9. 45 Mbd total) u Mexico 1. 124 Mbd u Venezuela 1. 085 Mbd u Nigeria 0. 946 Mbd u Iraq 0. 693 Mbd u And Angola, Brazil, Algeria, Russia, Kuwait, Ecuador, Columbia, Chad, Libya l The NE US also imports electricity and natural gas from Canada http: //www. eia. doe. gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import. html 100125 Photo: www. tesc. edu

1. 3 The Hubbert Curve Predicts Fossil Fuel Decline l Dr. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, predicted in 1956 that the US oil peak would be reached in 1970. Later, others predicted the World oil peak would occur in the first decade of the 21 st Century. l Past the production peak at 2006 -2011 (? ), oil prices will increase as extraction becomes more difficult and the price is bid up. 080813 www. hubbertpeak. com/midpoint. htm

1. 3. 1 US Oil Production Peaks! 080805

1. 3. 2 Some World Oil Production Peaks! 080813 See The Oil Drum for more

1. 3. 2 Oil Peak l www. theoildrum. com/files/2010_January_Oilwatch_Monthly. pdf www. oecd. org/ may help 100127

1. 3. 4 Constant Dollar Energy (2008) l www. eia. doe. gov/oiaf/aeo/overview. html

2. Energy Demand l The World produces about 85. 4 M bbl/day, but uses about 85. 7 million barrels petroleum per day (crude oil + liquids); working on storage l The US uses about 20. 7 million barrels of petroleum per day while producing 8. 3 million barrels per day l OPEC produces 32. 7 Mbd, ~40% of World demand l Major oil pipeline through Country of Georgia 100127

2. 1 Supply & Demand Effects l Crude oil trades on a world market l Electronic trading permits 24 -hour trading l If the demand exceeds or approaches the supply, prices increase indefinitely l The US doesn’t affect the market price as much as world events that threaten the oil supply u Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, war threats, closing the Strait of Hormuz, bombings and deaths, hurricanes, etc l China and India are increasing their demands for oil, buying from the same suppliers that we use and competing with us on price 080907

2. 1. 1 Hurricane Katrina & Petroenergy l The heart of US oil production and refineries was struck by Katrina; lost 25% production l Production had been shut down to prevent losses and to allow the workers to leave; lost some offshore Gulf rigs l Pipelines were shut down in case of storm damage l Gasoline shortages occurred throughout the Southeast l This shortage lasted several months, but eventual fossil fuel depletion will cause lasting problems and high prices Photo from NOAA http: //tonto. eia. doe. gov/oog/info/twip_crude. html 080820

2. 1 US Energy Usage www. eia. doe. gov

2. 2 Energy Information Sources and Beliefs l Information sources should be skeptically analyzed u Whose info is it? What or who do they represent? What do they really want? What’s their agenda? u Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan diets for good health, but they really want no animals killed for food n PETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so that real chickens won’t be killed l Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant data u Nonconforming info is disregarded or modified to make it “right” as it doesn’t match their long-held dogma u They take surveys of their members (~<0. 5% of population) and contend that represents the public as a whole u Sometimes pure hatred of the opposition overwhelms the group and taints every expressed viewpoint 100121

2. 3 The Bountiful Life l We have become conditioned to lives filled with the joys of cheap energy l Microwave ovens are more efficient cookers than electric range “eyes”, yet they were developed just to save time l Multiple family cars are the norm to allow independent travel of the family members l Vehicles enable greater “urban sprawl” u Living farther away from work requires more energy-consuming travel (and money) to get there u Why should a business be located “downtown”? u A clean industry like Harris Corporation in Melbourne, FL is essentially located in a residential area where workers can live nearby 080820

2. 3. 1 Conspicuous Consumption l Some objects are more for show than utility u V-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads u 12, 000 square foot homes u Expensive imported foods; 1500 -mile salad u Long-distance air travel for an hour meeting u “Business” meetings at golf & ski resorts http: //www. unimog. net/ u Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec Kozlowski’s wife u $56, 000 Hummers suitable for war support on our highways n Potential for a stylish new model with welded, inoperable 0. 50 caliber machine gun on roof for show? u Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right) n Driven to an Oregon renewable energy fair by an RE fan! l Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something wasteful, shouldn’t they be allowed to buy it? 080805

3. Energy Considerations l Sustainability l Global Warming l Energy Conservation l Energy Efficiency l Energy Plans 080815

3. 3. 2 “Green Buildings” l Buildings use a large amount of energy to offset energy loss through the envelope u. Windows, walls, ceiling, floors, and doors u. Air lock doors reduce heat loss as people pass l Lighting, motors, and bodies provide internal heat that must be removed in summer but is useful heat in the winter l When water is heated by the sun, it avoids the consumption of electricity or natural gas 080820

3. 3. 2. 1 Green Energy Cities: US l Chicago, IL u Goal: 20% RE by 2006; now 15% u Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued: Solargenix won u 2010: 25% RE; 28% energy mgm’t; 22% distributed generation; 25% cogeneration l Sacramento, CA u Goal: 10% nonhydro by 2006; 20% by 2011 u ~60% RE now; among top ten US cities supplying RE l Portland, OR u Goal: new wind farm; green buildings; 100% RE by 2010 u 10% RE now; 1 million k. Wh waste methane fuel cells; green tags l Austin, TX u “Goal” 35% RE and Efficiency by 2020; solar initiative 100 MW by 2020 050805

3. 4 Energy Plans l Polls show the public wants the energy problems fixed; 76% want more oil drilling l Presidential candidates had ignored energy problem, speaking in generalities and platitudes, but are now responding with plans l Plans reflect their present core beliefs, perhaps, but change frequently l Plans differ a lot! I’ll show just one 100127

3. 4. 7 The Paris Hilton Plan! l “Limited drilling offshore with strict environmental oversight” l “Create tax incentives to get Detroit to make electric and hybrid cars” l “That way, the offshore drilling carries us until the new technologies kick in, which will then create new jobs and energy independence” l “Energy crisis solved!” Ref: Christian Science Monitor [Just trying to be comprehensive here --- work with me!] 080907

4. 3. 1 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras l Cornucopians believe that “needs” and “wants” will always be provided for u. Just in time, a technical breakthrough will allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more! u. The “Horn of Plenty” is always full to overflowing! u“Don’t worry, be happy!” u“If it feels good, do it!” --- Nike trademark 080907 http: //desktoppub. about. com/

4. 3. 2 “The Horn of Plenty” Shall Always Provide l As European civilization expanded to North America, necessity led to inventions that preserved life or made it easier or better u Steam train, steam engines, windmills, waterpower, electric lights, telegraph, repeating rifle, telephone, automobiles, airplanes, television, computers, internet, etc. l New needs led to solutions; what worked evolved into better approaches http: //desktoppub. about. com/ 080820

4. 3. 4 “The Sky is Falling”: What Shall We Do? l The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in population would swamp limited resources u Death, famine, war, and pestilence would result n An apocalyptic result u (It’s been postponed so far!) l 1960 Scary movie: “No Blade of Grass” l A group of economists, scientists, and doomsayers examine the outlook u Running. On. Empty. com u Die. Off. com u Caution: these sites may not be suitable for children or adults! u Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency 080907 http: //www. postermaniacs. com/originals/onesheets/no_blade_of_grass. jpg

4. 4 Agendas, Slants, & Scams l Agendas (often are kept for the “faithful”) u Wants dam removal for river rafting; argues fish are being killed u Likes yachting in Narragansett Bay; argues wind farms interfere with navigation (in shallow water yet) u Wants next-door forest to remain; they plant endangered species to “be discovered” Oh! look there!; can’t clear this! l Slants u Carefully selects info to push the internal “message”; rejects and discredits the opposite view u Selects minor views of opponents and trumpets them l Scams u Venture capital gatherers with small chance of success u Solicitations of public donations with 70% going to staff salaries u Car runs on water! 080907

4. 5 Direct Effects Upon Consumers l High energy bills stretch budgets as prices rise u Electricity (affecting price of products bought) u Gasoline u Natural Gas or heating oil l High gasoline price definition: u “Too high” if majority buys fuel efficient vehicles; but “not high” if majority buys poor efficiency vehicles (like 12 -16 mpg SUVs and trucks) l The “Time” magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it on the front cover of Time magazine, the trend may be over u Public thinks this is a “coming issue” when it’s past u “Smart money” is bailing out; don’t rush in 080907

4. 6 Lifestyle Changes Needed! l Practice energy conservation and save your money for “fun” purchases (and investments for retirement) l Increase energy efficiency to save even more money for other needed/wanted uses l Think of the marginal utility of “supersizing” your life u Less quantity or fewer features may be acceptable and allow your money to be used for other things you really want u Would you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a whole watermelon? Isn’t there a limit to “wants”? l Your time may be far more valuable than your money u Live close to where you work so you don’t waste your life stuck in traffic “Fifteen-minute rule” u Work at what you would do for free, but don’t tell your boss! 100127

4. 7 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children Now? l People that we know, children and grandchildren, will suffer from increased fossil fuel prices l Those that we don’t know, greatgrandchildren may have it even worse; for great 7 grandchildren, worse yet l What we do today affects future generations --- shouldn’t we care? (Is it really “All about ME!”) ME l A surging world population will fight to get or control energy sources, leading to wars far worse than Iraq u People of developing countries will crave to live as those do in the highly over-consuming U. S. and marketeers will ensure this craving n Effect of global TV influences and makes people aware of distant consumption trends; “I want to live like those people in those TV shows!” 080820

5. Transportation l Rowing, animal power, human power l Wind, sailing ships, airplanes l Wood, coal, diesel and gasoline fuels l Electricity and motors This steam car was designed by Nicholas Joseph Cugnot and constructed by M. Brezin in 1769, shown bumping a wall in Paris Oops! 080822 http: //www. ausbcomp. com/~bbott/cars/carhist. htm

5. 1 Transportation Energy Usage l Petroleum fuels predominate l Costs determined the development and selection of primary fuels l Loss of petroleum can depress the economy for years 080820 http: //www. eia. doe. gov/kids/energyfacts/uses/transportation. html

5. 1. 1 Energy Shortages l In 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States because we had supported Israel in the Six-Day War against Egypt u Gasoline shortages across the US led to long lines of cars at gasoline pumps, and impatient drivers assaulting each other u Prices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were often limited to so many dollars or gallons (rationing); even-odd fill-up days u Trans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (early enviro protest claimed animals would be afraid; similarity to ANWR claims) l Through many contentious issues, California had an electricity crisis that was responsible for replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger u Blackouts get the voters’ attention faster than pleas! u Shortages or total outages are perceived very differently by the public than blackouts from equipment failures 080820

5. 1. 2 Fuel Prices from EERE in May 2008 080815 http: //www 1. eere. energy. gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw 526. html

5. 1. 3 Constant $ Gasoline in 2005 l Adjusted price has now exceeded the 2000 peak 080822 http: //ncga. fhdigital. com/sitefiles/1000/gas_graph. jpg

5. 1. 3. 1 Price versus Utility? 080915

5. 1. 4 Daily US Commuting Distance 93% of commuters drive less than 35 miles l SOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Omnibus Household Survey. Aggregated data cover activities for the month prior to the survey. 080805

5. 3 Alternative Fuel Vehicles l AFVs don’t use gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, the conventional fuels l An early version was the 1908 Bishop electric car – Jay Leno owns and drives one l In 1957, I saw propane forklift trucks inside a huge Frigidaire plant where I was a co-op student u The fumes were claimed to be “clean” u Western states have conversions of pickup trucks to start on gasoline and run on propane 080820

5. 3. Alternative Fuel Vehicles l This 2007 Rally was from the Florida Solar Energy Center (Cocoa) to Florida Tech’s Panther Plaza in Melbourne

5. 3. 1 Solar Challenge Rally l DOE started Sunrayce rallies to mirror the World Solar Challenge Races in Australia l Later, Sunrayce was renamed the American Solar Challenge, and adding Canada, it became the North American Solar Challenge l In 2008, University of Michigan’s Continuum won on the Dallas to Calgary route 080820 2007, Dutch Nuna won!

5. 3. 1. 1 Florida Tech Solar Car 1990 Sunrayce Solar Race l Started at Disney Lake Buena Vista, FL l Eleven day trip with overnight stops l Chase van with a warning sign accompanied the car l The van also read out the solar car performance data by radio link l Two-way radio provided voice communications l Ended at GM Tech Center, Warren, MIA Map by Dorian West, 1990 100121

5. 3. 1. 1 Florida Tech at the 1990 Sunrayce This car was cosmetically restored in 2007, but is no longer operational The Sunshine Special originally required $225, 000 in funding 080820

5. 3. 1. 2 Florida Tech’s Racing Electric Vehicle, 10/07/2007 080806

5. 3. 1. 2 2007 Racing Electric Vehicle (REV) l Formula Lightning autocross racer l Touchscreen steering wheel l Battery monitoring comm -- Design Objectives -- - Acceleration from 0 to 60 mph in under 5 seconds - Top speed of 85 mph - Maximum power available between 20 and 40 mph. - Lightweight (under 650 lb with driver) - 15 minute battery life running at high performance speeds

5. 3. 2 Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) l PHEVs have a large battery that is charged by 120 Vac utility power 15 A outlet anywhere l There is also a small engine-alternator that can charge the battery using a fuel like gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), or biofuel l The engine only burns fuel if the voltage falls too low and the battery needs charging l Estimated battery-only range might be 40 to 100 miles a day between nighttime charges l Cleanliness depends on most local utility source 080820

5. 3. 2. 1 A Plug-in Prius l Third-party kits available for changing a Prius to a PHEV (voids factory warranty? ) u Charger uses 120 Vac <15 amps, a standard house outlet l Toyota working on a 2010 production model 100121 Photo: Motortrend

5. 3. 3 1974 -1983 Sebring Citicar l Sebring Vanguard company in Florida l Response to 1973 gasoline crisis met by battery car with fiberglass body 080820 http: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Citicar

5. 3. 4 Electric Car plus a “Pusher” 080822

5. 3. 5 Tesla Racer l The Tesla Racer is all electric, sporty, and pricey (at first) Photo by Tesla Motors 080820

5. 3. 6 GM Volt --- an Electric Car Introductory GM Volt and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz Photo by Jeffrey Sauger, ©GM Corp. 080820

5. 3. 7 Hydrogen Cars l Hydrogen-fueled cars are similar to compressed natural gas (CNG) cars l Hydrogen is an energy carrier like electricity and must be made l Tank pressures are ~6, 000 to 10, 000 psi 100127 Present prototypes cost ~$1 million; fuel costs extra! This is the Progress Energy car I requested for the Sustainability Forum at Olin Life Sciences Photo, F. Leslie, 2006

5. 4 Trains l Biodiesel has cleaner emissions; easy changeover l Electric trains require expensive trackside or overhead conductors for direct connection l Large battery cars might supply energy for the motors and could be quickly changed at stops for fully charged units l Present diesels dump braking power into cab-top resistors (no batteries), but with attached battery cars, recharging is economical l A hybrid version would carry engine-alternators for recharging using CNG, biodiesel, or perhaps H 2 u The engine-alternators for recharging would stay in the locomotive so it could move independently from the battery car 080822 www. trainweb. org/gensets/brookville/bmex/259 a. jpg

5. 5 Airplanes l Airplanes must carry nonlead (too heavy) batteries or fuel cells sufficient to reach the next airport or use recharging engines l Hydrogen high-pressure flask size may restrict the distance that can be traveled with fuel cells l Hybrid aircraft might use fuel to reach altitude and then change to electric motors or fuel cells to sustain altitude at a lesser speed 100125

5. 6 Ships l Ships are now having diesel engines converted to use natural gas l An existing Sky. Sails wind kite design can partially pull the ship to reduce fuel usage l Hull drag efficiency offers a 3% cost savings l Florida Tech ocean engineering students are designing a model hull with dimples like a golf ball to reduce drag about 3% (2008) 080822

6. Future of Long-Term Energy Forecasts l Energy needed depends upon how much energy is being used, how efficiently, and where l As other countries develop large energy uses, they increase the demands, and price increases l Worldwide problems can be solved locally u China coal pollution by mercury reaches the US West Coast, but US actions can only affect the total pollution l Energy growth curves show high consumer demands that must be accommodated by utility planning and construction; some groups say the public must just use less, a hard sell u Enviro quote: “I won’t be happy until gasoline costs $10 to $15 per gallon!” from a Sierra Club email 100125

6. 1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010) l I predict that energy prices will be much higher in 2050, as energy becomes more costly to extract and increased antipollution costs are passed on to the consumer l In some states, more nuclear plants will be placed in operation while in others, nuclear plants will be closed u. These changes will be primarily politically driven l Fossil fuel plants will become expensive to operate (capand-trade) and ratepayer prices will increase l Cars will tend to be hybrids using advanced batteries and small recharging engines of perhaps 30 hp l Tractors for trailers may run on natural gas from large tanks behind the cab (Picken’s Plan) l Air travel will decline, with trains substituting 100127

6. 1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010) l Crude Oil u Prices become extremely volatile, destabilizing the market $147/bbl on 7/11/08, then $106 on 9/5/08; perhaps $200 by January, 2009; perhaps $100 by January, 2011? l Gasoline u Prices rise to $6 -10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted) within your lifetimes, and not due to taxes as in Europe! l Electricity u Becomes more diverse, with growing renewables used, as fossil fuel becomes expensive beyond belief or affording u CO 2 capture increases price (51% now from coal) l Public Transportation u Aircraft: Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases may require frequent landing to refuel limited capacity energy tanks u Trains: Take over some air traffic, but tracks are vulnerable to easy terrorist attack because they are accessible for miles u Trucking Industry: Expands to carry more people in posh cargo containers similar to Victorian train cars -- a specially “bus” 100125

6. 2 Energy Competition by Nations l China and India have large populations that will want and buy more energy, driving the price up u. Tata company of India selling a $2500 car l The other developing nations will do the same, but with less effect at first l Russia has large oil and natural gas resources to control world markets for “national power” l The US President and Congress can’t set the World crude oil price, but the massive effect of the public shifting their demand will u. The US competes on the world energy market 100125

6. 3 Future of Energy l The transition of energy from conventional, fossil fuels to cleaner renewables will take decades --- natural gas will survive for years l Al Gore, global warming advocate pushes for no fossil fuels in the next 8 years, but renewables, conservation, and efficiency are still developing and must change from ~4% to over 90% in a short time l Electrical grid must change to carry renewable energy from resource to load centers (cities) l Rechargeable vehicles are as clean as the utility source, which will shift from coal to renewables due to politics, ideology, and good practices 100125

6. 3. 1 Future of Renewable Energy l Wind power continues to grow at ~30% - 40% per year u As turbines become more widespread, the “pushback” against them fades l Solar energy responds to cheaper solar modules and government subsidies l Geothermal heat pumps operate more efficiently and standard heat pumps have fittings for adding a ground source/sink loop l Biofuels develop at commercial levels, and engines are redesigned to accept these fuels l Hydroelectric systems are added at the <30 MW size as economics win over NIMBY and “viewscape” protests 100127

6. 3. 2 Future of Renewable Energy l Ocean tidal, wave and current energy develops for coastal areas u. Current energy devices provide technology for river and some stream energy extraction l Distributed energy from rooftop solar water and electrical systems reduce need for transmission line installations l Nuclear fission spent fuel is recycled to make additional fuel (not really a renewable) l Nuclear fusion remains a 30 -year technology 100127

Conclusions l Humans must have air, water, food, and energy l Fossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House Effect” believed to cause global warming l Future cars likely will be plug-in hybrids running occasionally on CNG, bioethanol or biodiesel for long trips; design options based upon area l Trains will replace aircraft for civilian long trips (price, convenience, and harassment factor) l Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable approach to the World’s energy needs, but costs more u Cost decreases plus fossil fuels increase in price l Economics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term, overall cost --- this attitude must change! 100127

Conclusion l. Increasing oil, natural gas, and coal prices will ensure that the transition to renewable energy will occur ― 080820 How will we choose to do it?

Thank you! Questions? ? ? My website: my. fit. edu/~fleslie for presentations Roberts Hall weather and energy data: my. fit. edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH. htm DMES Meteorology Webpage: my. fit. edu/wx_fit/? q=obs/realtime/roberts 080710

References: Books l Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. Oxford, 2007 l Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0 -26202349 -0, TJ 807. 9. U 6 B 76, 333. 79’ 4’ 0973. l Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. , 920 pp. , 1991 l Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co. , 1993. 0 -930031 -64 -4, TJ 820. G 57, 621. 4’ 5 l Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0 -8493 -1605 -7, TK 1541. P 38 1999, 621. 31’ 2136 l Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0 -12 -656152 -4. l Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ: Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc. , 668 pp. , 1995. 0 -02 -304601 -5. TJ 163. 2. A 88. 100127

References: Websites, etc. http: //www. eia. doe. gov/cneaf/solar. renewables/page/trends/highlight 1. html awea-windnet@yahoogroups. com. Wind Energy elist awea-wind-home@yahoogroups. com. Wind energy home powersite elist geothermal. marin. org/ on geothermal energy mailto: energyresources@egroups. com rredc. nrel. gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap 2/2 -01 m. html PNNL wind energy map of CONUS windenergyexperimenter@yahoogroups. com. Elist for wind energy experimenters www. dieoff. org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population www. ferc. gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commission www. hawaii. gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi. html#anchor 349152 on OTEC systems telosnet. com/wind/20 th. html www. google. com/search? q=%22 renewable+energy+course%22 solstice. crest. org/ dataweb. usbr. gov/html/powerplant_selection. html http: //cr. middlebury. edu/es/altenergylife/70's. htm http: //www. barcelonaenergia. com/eng/observatory/bcnenergy 3. htm 080811 …RECall. Website. . . Class. PPTRE 27 Future of Energy [was Future. Trends]