2019 Summer Preparedness May 16 2019 2 2019

2019 Summer Preparedness May 16, 2019

2 2019 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric System Preparedness

15, 000 Source: NYISO Actual Normal 2016 Forecast YEAR 2017 Forecast 7/15/1905 12: 00 AM 7/14/1905 12: 00 AM 7/13/1905 12: 00 AM 7/12/1905 12: 00 AM 7/11/1905 12: 00 AM 7/10/1905 12: 00 AM 7/9/1905 12: 00 AM 7/8/1905 12: 00 AM 7/7/1905 12: 00 AM 7/6/1905 12: 00 AM 7/5/1905 12: 00 AM 7/4/1905 12: 00 AM 7/3/1905 12: 00 AM 7/2/1905 12: 00 AM 7/1/1905 12: 00 AM 6/30/1905 12: 00 AM 2018 Forecast Coincident 2019 Forecast 7/21/1905 12: 00 AM 7/20/1905 12: 00 AM 7/19/1905 12: 00 AM 7/18/1905 12: 00 AM 7/17/1905 12: 00 AM 7/16/1905 12: 00 AM MW 3 Historical Actual, Normal, & Forecast – Summer Peak(MW) Actual, Normal, & Forecast - Summer Peak (MW) NYCA Base Case - With Energy Program Impacts 40, 000 35, 000 30, 000 25, 000 20, 000

4 Forecast Impact on Summer Peak Demand (MW) of Energy Efficiency and Distributed Generation Energy Program Impacts - Summer Peak (MW) NYCA 5000 4500 4000 3500 Cumulative impacts from 2019 forward MW 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Energy Efficiency Source: NYISO 2024 YEAR 2025 2026 Distributed Generation 2027 2028 2029

5 2019 Summer Capability 2018 2019 Installed Generation Capacity 39, 325 39, 295 Demand Response – Special Case Resources (SCRs) 1, 219 1, 309 40, 544 40, 604 1, 625 1, 452 42, 169 42, 056 Total NY Control Area (NYCA) Internal Capability Net Firm Purchase Imports Total Capability Source: NYISO

6 NYS Peak Demand Installed Reserve Margin Forecast Demand Forecast 17% Required Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) 32, 382 MW 5, 505 MW Total Capability Requirement 37, 887 MW Total Capability This Summer 42, 056 MW Surplus (Capability Above Requirement) 4, 169 MW Capability Versus Demand Forecast (%) 129. 9% Source: NYISO

7 Utility Load Relief Programs 400 366 350 325 300 MW 250 222 200 DLRP CSRP 150 DLC 100 50 0 49 9 14 CHG&E 26 25 Con. Ed National Grid 7 NYSEG 3 O&R DLRP= 366 MW, CSRP= 607 MW & DLC= 106 MW Total 1, 079 MW DLRP – Distribution Load Relief Program CSRP – Commercial System Relief Program DLC – Direct Load Control Program 20 PSEG-LI 5 9 RG&E

8 Utility Transmission and Distribution Systems Preparedness • Surveys - Discussed responses to preparedness survey with each utility • Work - All planned reinforcements, inspections, and repairs are or will be completed • Spares - Each utility has adequate spare equipment on hand • Planned Outages - Major generator and transmission planned outages require NYISO approval, and are avoided during peak periods • Meeting Demand - Each utility expects to meet peak demand with all lines and generators in service • Meeting Criteria - Each meets NPCC and NYSRC operating criteria • Mitigation – NYISO and each utility have operating procedures to mitigate reliability issues

9 2019 Summer Preparedness New York State Electric Portfolio, Volatility, and Supply Price Outlook

ec Ju 08 n. D 09 ec Ju 09 n D -10 ec Ju 10 n D -11 ec Ju 11 n. D 12 ec Ju 12 n D -13 ec Ju 13 n D -14 ec Ju 14 n. D 15 ec Ju 15 n D -16 ec Ju 16 n D -17 ec Ju 17 n. D 18 ec -1 8 D Coefficient of Variation 10 NYISO Spot Market vs. Utility Full Service Residential Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Statewide 12 -month rolling average) Portfolio Market

11 New York State Electric Supply Portfolio Full Service Residential (Summer 2019) 2% 27% 11% 59% Fixed Price Market Price Unhedged Generation Index Price

12 Average Energy Price Comparison Summer Season $31. 52 k City LBMP ($/MWH) $35. 40 $34. 27 $28. 67 Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH) $32. 56 $31. 79 $28. 11 West LBMP ($/MWH) $33. 11 $32. 78 NYMEX Futures June-September, 2019 Average Day-Ahead Market June-September, 2018 NYMEX Futures June-September, 2018

13 Statewide Weighted Average Full Service Residential Supply Price - Summer Months (Cents per k. Wh) 9. 00 8. 00 7. 00 6. 00 5. 00 4. 00 3. 00 2. 00 1. 00 0. 00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

5 90 /1 14 0 : 0 0 12 00 : 0 0: M A M A 2 10 12 00 0: 13. 4 7/ 5 19 0 M A 7. 4 9/ 12 : 0 0. 8 7/ 05 00 : 0 0: M A 9. 7 19 Gas Price 12 00 12 8/ 5 19 0 M A 2. 1 7/ 7/ : 0 0: 12 00 M 9. 2 7/ 5 19 0 : 0 0: Year 6/ Capacity 12 A 1. 4 7/ 5 00 9. 6 19 0 : 0 0: M A 7. 7 5/ 12 00 1. 5 7/ 5 19 0 M A 10 4/ : 0 0: 00 NYCA SUPPLY COSTS 2006 -2018 18 1. 4 10 2. 2 3. 3 8 2. 7 2. 6 6 1. 4 1. 8 11. 1 7. 9 2. 1 1. 8 5. 5 5. 7 4 7. 2 0 Gas Price ($Per Thousand Cubic Feet) 20 7/ 12 Energy and Ancillary 5 19 0 M A 4 3/ : 0 0: 12 00 M A 15. 8 7/ 5 19 0 : 0 0: 12 0 : 0 8 2/ 5 19 0 M A 16 7/ 1/ : 0 0 12 0 : 0 12. 4 7/ 5 90 /1 : 0 0 M A 6 30 12 0 : 0 0 12 Cost ($Billions) 14 6/ 5 90 /1 29 6/ 5 90 /1 28 6/ 14 12