2018 ORANGE COUNTY PROJECTIONS Orange County Council of

2018 ORANGE COUNTY PROJECTIONS Orange County Council of Governments Board of Directors September 27, 2018 Deborah Diep, Director Center for Demographic Research www. fullerton. edu/cdr 1

Acronyms § § § § § CDPH- CA Department of Public Health CDR- Center for Demographic Research DOF- CA State Department of Finance EDD- CA State Employment Development Dept. LRTP- Long Range Transportation Plan MOC- Management Oversight Committee OCCOG- Orange County Council of Governments OCHCA- Orange County Health Care Agency OCP- Orange County Projections OCTA- Orange County Transportation Authority RHNA- Regional Housing Needs Assessment RSA- Regional Statistical Area RTP- Regional Transportation Plan PHE- Population, housing, and employment SCAG- Southern California Association of Governments SCS- Sustainable Communities Strategy TAC- Technical Advisory Committee TAZ- Traffic Analysis Zone 2

CDR Sponsors: Contributing Partner: 3

Sponsorship and Administration The Center for Demographic Research (CDR) was established in 1996 to ensure Orange County continued its presence in the development and support of demographic information. The CDR is located at California State University, Fullerton, ensuring data consistency through the maintenance of a centralized data source of Orange County demographic characteristics. 4

Orange County Projections Series § § § § OCP-III OCP-85 OCP-88 OCP-92 OCP-96 OCP-2000 OCP-2004 OCP-2006 OCP-2010 OCP-2014 OCP-2018 1978 1981 1985 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2006 2012 2014 2018 - 13 th iteration 5

OCP Process § § Uniform, long-range forecast used in local and regional planning Top-down, Bottom-up: § Project county-wide population, housing and jobs § Meet with, collect & incorporate detailed input from each jurisdiction Monitored by technical & management committees Wrapping up 13 th iteration (OCP-2018) § 2020 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCAG RTP/SCS) § OCTA’s Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) 6

OCP-2018 Inputs § § § § § 2010 Census DOF Population Estimates EDD Employment Estimates CDR Small Area Population & Housing Estimates CDR Small Area Employment Estimates Short-Term & Long-Term Economic Forecasts CDPH/OCHCA Vital Statistics: Birth & death data City & County General Plans, Economic Development & Redevelopment Plans Project Entitlements City/County Review & Comment 7

OCP-2018 Process Develop TAZ Level Projections Develop Base Year Estimates Jurisdictional Review Adjust Base Year Estimates Develop County-wide Growth Assumptions Develop County-wide PHE Totals Allocate County-wide PHE to Split TAZ Develop Secondary Variables by Split TAZ Distribute Draft Projections Meet with Jurisdictions Jurisdictional Review Adjust Projections Jurisdictional Approve by CDR TAC & MOC OCCOG TAC Approval OCCOG Board Approval 8

Final Draft OCP-2018 Projections Estimate 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Employment 1, 710, 147 1, 773, 571 1, 835, 106 1, 886, 065 1, 927, 505 1, 960, 051 1, 980, 433 Housing Units 1, 081, 938 1, 122, 178 1, 144, 597 1, 159, 026 1, 180, 795 1, 194, 168 1, 206, 257 Population 3, 179, 626 3, 268, 084 3, 361, 142 3, 440, 882 3, 499, 318 3, 531, 540 3, 534, 620 4 000 Population +11. 2% 3 500 000 3 000 OCP-2018 Growth 2016 -2045 2 500 000 Jobs +15. 8% 2 000 1 500 000 Housing +11. 5% 1 000 9 500 000 2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

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Recommended Action § Approve the 2018 Orange County Projections for years 2016 -2045 at the county and Regional Statistical Area (RSA) levels and forward to SCAG for inclusion in the 2020 RTP/SCS. 11

Questions? Deborah Diep Director ddiep@fullerton. edu (657) 278 -4596 www. fullerton. edu/cdr 1121 N. State College Blvd. Suite 238 Fullerton, CA 92831 (657) 278 -3009 12

OCP-2018 Final Draft and Control Totals July July 2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 3, 183, 132 3, 266, 039 3, 355, 462 3, 434, 491 3, 491, 547 3, 517, 617 3, 516, 359 OCP-2018 3, 179, 626 3, 268, 084 3, 361, 142 3, 440, 882 3, 499, 318 3, 531, 540 3, 534, 620 Numerical difference -3, 506 2, 045 5, 680 6, 391 7, 771 13, 923 18, 261 -0. 11% 0. 06% 0. 17% 0. 19% 0. 22% 0. 40% 0. 52% 1, 082, 342 1, 112, 787 1, 141, 005 1, 158, 455 1, 177, 552 1, 192, 522 1, 204, 167 1, 081, 938 1, 122, 178 1, 144, 597 1, 159, 026 1, 180, 795 1, 194, 168 1, 206, 257 -404 9, 391 3, 592 571 3, 243 1, 646 2, 090 -0. 04% 0. 84% 0. 31% 0. 05% 0. 28% 0. 14% 0. 17% 1, 710, 671 1, 778, 242 1, 841, 953 1, 888, 342 1, 924, 419 1, 953, 952 1, 971, 663 OCP-2018 1, 710, 147 1, 773, 571 1, 835, 106 1, 886, 065 1, 927, 505 1, 960, 051 1, 980, 433 Numerical difference -524 -4, 671 -6, 847 -2, 277 3, 086 6, 099 8, 770 -0. 03% -0. 26% -0. 37% -0. 12% 0. 16% 0. 31% 0. 44% Population: Controls Percent difference Housing: Controls OCP-2018 Numerical difference Percent difference Employment: Controls Percent difference 13

Employment OCP-2014 Modified & OCP-2018 2 200 000 2 000 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 OCP-2014 Mod 20 45 20 40 20 35 20 30 20 25 20 20 20 Ba 12 se /20 Ye 16 ar 1 000 OCP-2018 14

Housing OCP-2014 Modified & OCP-2018 1 230 000 1 180 000 1 130 000 1 080 000 1 030 000 OCP-2014 Mod 20 45 20 40 20 35 20 30 20 25 20 20 20 Ba 12 se /20 Ye 16 ar 980 000 OCP-2018 15

Population (July 1) OCP-2014 Modified & OCP-2018 3 700 000 3 500 000 3 300 000 3 100 000 2 900 000 2 700 000 OCP-2014 Mod 20 45 20 40 20 35 20 30 20 25 20 20 20 Ba 12 se /20 Ye 16 ar 2 500 000 OCP-2018 16

OCP-2018 Process Develop TAZ Level Projections Develop Base Year Estimates Jurisdictional Review Adjust Base Year Estimates Allocate County-wide PHE to Split TAZ Develop Secondary Variables by Split TAZ Distribute Draft Projections Meet with Jurisdictions Jurisdictional Review Adjust Projections Jurisdictional Approve by CDR TAC & MOC OCCOG TAC Approval OCCOG Board Approval 17