2016 11 Hydrological Statistics Dr Emailxiaoyansong nwsuaf edu

水文统计学— 西北农林科技大学，杨凌，2016. 11 Hydrological Statistics Dr. 宋小燕 西北农林科技大学·水利与建筑 程学院 Email：xiaoyansong@ nwsuaf. edu. cn ; Tel: 13759949150

Chapter 0 Characteristics of hydrologic phenomena n 0. 1 确定性和随机性水文过程 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology n 0. 2 水文统计的理论基础 Theoretical basis of hydrological statistics n 0. 3 统计水文学的产生和发展 Emergence and development of hydrological statistics n 0. 4 课程提纲及参考书目 Course outline and references

0. 1 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology 两种自然现象 必然现象（确定性现象） 偶然现象（随机现象）

0. 1 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology 3、水文学中的应用 Definition of hydrology Hydrology is an earth science concerned with the distribution of water quantities and water qualities in time and space. 水文学定义：研究水存在于地球上的大气层中和地球 表面以及地壳内的各种现象的发生和发展规律及其内在联系 的学科。包括水体的形成、循环和分布，水体的化学成分， 生物、物理性质以及它们对环境的效应等。

0. 1 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology 3、水文学中的应用 Hydrologic environments Those parts of the earth in which particular hydrologic phenomena of the water cycle are defined as hydrologic environments. They include: Oceans and seas Water condensation and precipitation Continental solid and liquid surfaces The upper layer of the earth’s crust Soils and plants Lakes, swamps, artificial ponds and reservoirs

0. 1 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology Stochastic processes of hydrology The majority of hydrologic phenomena in nature are stochastic processes, or processes governed by laws of chance. Precipitation, evaporation, runoff, ground water level, Sediment transport, lake level, Snow and ice accumulation and melt Water quality properties, River basin geomorphologic forms, etc

0. 1 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology Stochastic processes of hydrology It is important to stress that the term, chance, random, probabilistic and stochastic are considered synonyms in the course. They all refer to phenomena subject to the laws of chance. 在本课程中， chance, random, probabilistic and stochastic 是同一内涵的术语。

0. 1 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology Joint application of deterministic and stochastic methods in hydrology 水文现象具有确定性+随机性。 确定性：受控天文+流域宏观地质因素。表现为趋势性 和周期的循环性。 随机性：不受确定性因素影响。 假定

0. 1 Deterministic and stochastic processes of hydrology 冯家山水库入库年径流逐年变化图 年径流量（108 m 3） 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 年份 入库径流过程 多年平均径流量 趋势线

0. 2 Theoretical basis of statistical hydrology Applicability of probability theory in hydrology Probability theory is that branch of mathematics that investigate random phenomena. Because hydrology is basically a collection of phenomena related to distributions in time and space of random variables of water quantity and water quality, probability theory is the main branch mathematics applicable to hydrologic phenomena. 水文统计学的理论基础 Probability theory and mathematical statistics.

0. 4 Course Outline and references 绪论 Introduction 第 1章 事件与概率 Chapter 1 Random events and their probabilities 第 2章 随机变量及其分布 Chapter 2 Random variables and their distribution functions 第 3章 多元随机变量及其分布 Chapter 3 Random vectors and their distribution functions 第 4章 数字特征与特征函数 Chapter 4 Numerical characteristics and characteristic functions 第 5章 极限定理 Chapter 5 Limit theorems

0. 4 Course Outline and references 第 6章 抽样分布 Chapter 6 Sampling distributions 第 7章 水文频率计算 Chapter 7 Hydrological frequency analysis 第 8章 假设检验 Chapter 8 Tests of hypotheses 第 9章 回归分析 Chapter 9 Regression analysis 第 10章 误差分析 Chapter 9 Error analysis methods 第 11章 随机过程简介 Chapter 10 Stochastic processes 第 12章 水文时间序列分析 Chapter 12 Time series analysis in hydrology

Prerequisites other than basic hydrology by topic Statistics. An understanding of probability and statistics, comprising random variables, probability distribution and density functions, moments, and common probability distribution forms. Mathematics. An understanding of calculus and algebra as the language of science and engineering used to express a quantitative understanding of hydrological phenomena. Computational skills. An ability to use computers to process, analyze and plot data, using appropriate software (e. g. spreadsheets or programming language).

Prerequisites other than basic hydrology by topic Procedure: Material will be covered by lectures, necessarily restricted to the text/supplemental and handouts. Students are expected to read the other assignments thoroughly. Performance: Material covered on the tests will include handouts, lecture notes and outside readings. All work is expected to be completed on time.

EVALUATION All work must be your own. A grade of "F" will be assigned for any work which is clearly not your own or cheating of any type. Note: The plus/minus system of grading will be used. Homework 30 % Final. Tests 70 % HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENTS: All assignments should be done neatly and professionally. Pages must be numbered and stapled. The problem should be defined, diagrammed (if appropriate), and the solution should be developed in a step-bystep procedure. The final solution should be reported to two or three significant figures and underlined. You are encouraged to work together in study groups; however, identical (copied) homework will be awarded a grade of zero (0).

EVALUATION Absence at tests: If absent, it is the student's responsibility to contact the instructor at least 24 hours before the exam to schedule a make-up, which will be scheduled at the instructor’s discretion or a grade of "0" will be assigned for that test. Less than 3 times.