2015 JTWC RD Goals Captain Steven Sopko Commanding

2015 JTWC R&D Goals Captain Steven Sopko, Commanding Officer Mr. Bob Falvey, Director Prepared by Brian Strahl, JTWC Technical Development Coordinator 69 th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 2 -5 MAR 2015 Jacksonville, FL UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

TC Intensity Remains #1 priority § 2014 Real-time evaluation of SHIPS-RI yielded positive results – – § Added HWRF to JTWC intensity consensus for 2014 – – § Some late-season upgrades not in experimental TJET run due to resources Plans in the works to operationalize JTWC HWRF support Experimental GFDL WPAC added in 2014 thanks to HFIP. – – § Will be operational for 2015 Statistical-dynamical models still top-performers Evaluating GHMI and ensemble mean GFDL coverage expanding to all basins for 2015 RI top forecast challenge – – ~ 45% of WPAC tropical storms and 67% of typhoons undergo RI ERC is also significant, propose adding it explicitly to the text UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

Microwave Satellite/Radar Moved Satellite Recon to #2 priority § Sustainment/advancement of microwave/OSVW capabilities is ongoing battle – OSVW not previously cited specifically in priority list, propose adding it – OSVW crucial to fixing ≤ TD intensity, aids decision to warn – RDT&E needed to more fully exploit these data – port techniques developed for ATL and EPAC to JTWC basins § ATCF added radar overlay capability – § Currently limited application for JTWC (NWS Guam) Propose adding diagnosis or RI, ERC, ETT explicitly to the stated priority UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

TC Track Guidance Track guidance #3 priority § Incremental improvements – Continual fine-tuning of consensus members – SHEM HWRF available beginning 2014. 2015 operationalization will provide JTWC the full suite of resolution/physics upgrades – Ingesting ECMWF-ensemble mean into ATCF for evaluation in 2015 – Evaluating GFDL in all basins for 2015. – Higher resolution and other upgrades led to significant improvement over GFDN through day 4. – GFDN will get 2014 GFDL upgrades ~June 2015 § § JTWC interested in “extended” track guidance – No existing requirement for > 5 -day forecasts – Initial investigation of 7 -day forecast needs and capability ongoing More emphasis on probabilistic output/products – Some overlap with priority #4, guidance-on-guidance UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

Enhancements to the Operational Environment § Forecaster efficiency is crucial to maintaining timeline – Moved to #5 priority – – Despite #5 ranking, the forecast system(s) are the primary means to convey guidance to forecasters, i. e. , it impacts many other high priorities (Intensity, Track, Genesis, etc) Too many R&D stovepipes (i. e. , webpages), need more focus on integration UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

Enhancements to the Operational Environment, Cont’d § ATCF remains JTWC workhorse – Approx 8, 300 warnings issued in ATCF over the past 10 years – Steep budget cuts threaten ATCF sustainment/advancement – No upgrade planned/funded for CY 15 – § Highly cost effective R&D responsible for numerous forecast and efficiency improvements AWIPS-II coming to JTWC – New and/or expanded analysis capabilities compliment ATCF – Navy METOC pursuing an Enterprise solution – JTWC phased approach for interim solution – AWIPS thin-client access provides training/familiarization – Pursuing NOAA network connectivity to NWS Pac Reg UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

TC Genesis Broad interest in pre-genesis forecasts § JTWC monitoring NHC lead on TC genesis forecasting – No existing requirement for genesis forecasts – JTWC issues daily significant tropical Wx bulletins and classifies invests as Low, Medium, or High potential for development within 24 hours – Strategic vision: Provide DOD decision makers new and improved guidance for future impacts – 5 -day forecasts of TC genesis timing – Pre-genesis official track, intensity forecasts § JTWC can leverage initial NHC investment in ATCF capabilities to manage pre-development disturbances – More investment needed on pre-genesis warning component – Previous list had genesis priorities split between analysis and forecast – recommend combining into one Genesis priority – JTWC priority #6 UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

TC Structure § Reliant on CIRA MPSWA, wind radii CLIPER – – § § JTWC does not perform post-storm structure verification – Known small-biased gale radii. Focusing on updating working best track when new guidance arrives – Additional forecaster tools/QC added to ATCF Impact of structure analysis goes beyond TCOR decision making – § Coverage and latency of scatterometry adds to challenge Development of automated IR/microwave based measurements and/or SHIPS wind radii may offer further improvements M. Bender demonstrated significant impact of structure initialization on GFDN track and intensity Recommend merging existing priorities for structure analysis and forecast guidance into one TC Structure priority – JTWC priority #6 UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

Two New R&D Priorities #8 - Guidance to diagnose and predict the formation of TCs via tropical transition § JTWC Investigating formalization of warnings for monsoon depressions and other “non-classical” disturbances – – § Such systems can have real impacts to DOD, e. g. 12 W “Nakri” Like civilian population, warfighters do not care about the definition of “tropical cyclone” R&D needs: – – Diagnose and predict the formation of TCs via tropical transition Accurate forecast guidance of pre-transition disturbances ATCF modifications Quantification of forecast skill #10 - Development of confidence-based error swath derived from model spread § Dynamic swath size increases battlespace maneuverability and decreases unnecessary TCCOR costs for high-confidence forecasts § Current error swath based on 5 year running mean errors Joint Typhoon Warning Center UNCLASSIFIED Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority

Questions? UNCLASSIFIED Joint Typhoon Warning Center Forward, Ready, Responsive Decision Superiority