2015 Crop Market Outlook Ag Leader Ames Iowa

2015 Crop Market Outlook Ag Leader Ames, Iowa July 24, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 91. 9 97. 3 95. 4 90. 6 88. 9 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 147. 2 123. 1 158. 1 171. 0 166. 8 Production (mil. bu. ) 12, 360 10, 755 13, 829 14, 216 13, 530 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 128 989 821 1, 232 1, 779 Imports (mil. bu. ) 29 160 36 27 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 13, 517 11, 904 14, 686 15, 474 15, 334 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 4, 557 4, 315 5, 034 5, 300 5, 275 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 5, 000 4, 641 5, 134 5, 200 5, 225 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 428 1, 397 1, 369 1, 346 1, 360 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 543 730 1, 917 1, 850 1, 875 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 12, 528 11, 083 13, 454 13, 696 13, 735 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 989 821 1, 232 1, 779 1, 599 6. 22 6. 89 4. 46 3. 70 3. 75 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75. 0 77. 2 76. 8 83. 7 85. 1 Yield (bu. /acre) 41. 9 40. 0 44. 0 47. 8 46. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 094 3, 042 3, 358 3, 969 3, 885 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 215 169 141 92 255 Imports (mil. bu. ) 16 41 72 30 30 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 325 3, 252 3, 570 4, 091 4, 170 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 703 1, 689 1, 734 1, 830 1, 840 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 88 105 97 181 130 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 365 1, 317 1, 647 1, 825 1, 775 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 155 3, 111 3, 478 3, 836 3, 744 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 169 141 92 255 425 12. 50 14. 40 13. 00 10. 05 9. 25 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Acreage Top: 2015 acreage Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1, 000 acres Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Conditions Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Conditions Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Very Early Corn Yield Estimate Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Very Early Soy Yield Estimate Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Strength of the U. S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Exports Source: EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 3. 94 Source: CME Group, 7/23/2015 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 9. 39 Source: CME Group, 7/23/2015 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2014/15 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2015/16 Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØQuarterly stocks report showed strong demand ØResurvey of acreage for Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas ØMarket is debating whether this year’s rain makes grain ØProjected negative margins for 2014 and 2015 crops 2014/15 2015/16 USDA Corn Soybeans $3. 70 $10. 05 $3. 75 $9. 25 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2014/15 Futures (7/23/15) $3. 78 $10. 10 2015/16 Futures (7/23/15) $3. 94 $9. 39

Net Farm Income Source: USDA-OCE Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www 2. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics