2015 11 14 Meg Trends KISTI yspakkisti re

단국대학교 2015. 11. 14 기업의 미래, Meg Trends 파악에 달렸다 한국과학기술정보연구원(KISTI ) 연구위원 박 영 서 (yspak@kisti. re. kr) Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information

§ Prologue § Why is times crisis? § 한국 경제의 구조적 문제 § 기업은 언제까지 지속 성장할 수 있는가? § Why Do Megatrends Matter? § New Technology is changing of the face of the business world § Epilogue KISTI 2

Prologue KISTI 3 3

§ Prologue § Why is times crisis? § 한국 경제의 구조적 문제 § 기업은 언제까지 지속 성장할 수 있는가? § Why Do Megatrends Matter? § New Technology is changing of the face of the business world § Epilogue KISTI 4

왜 위기의 시대인가? Why is times crisis? The global growth challenge of the next 50 years Source : Global Growth: CAN PRODUCTIVITY SAVE THE DAY IN AN AGING WORLD? JANUARY 2015, MGI. KISTI 55 KISTI

source: MIT Technology Review, June 12, 2013 by David Rotman KISTI 66 KISTI

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§ Prologue § Why is times crisis? § 한국 경제의 구조적 문제 § 기업은 언제까지 지속 성장할 수 있는가? § Why Do Megatrends Matter? § Megatrends & Business Chance § Technology is changing of the face of the business world § Epilogue KISTI 10

§ Prologue § Why is times crisis? § 한국 경제의 구조적 문제 § 기업은 언제까지 지속 성장할 수 있는가? § Why Do Megatrends Matter? § New Technology is changing of the face of the business world § Epilogue KISTI 16

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§ Prologue § Why is times crisis? § 한국 경제의 구조적 문제 § 기업은 언제까지 지속 성장할 수 있는가? § Why Do Megatrends Matter? § New Technology is changing of the face of the business world § Epilogue KISTI 19

What is a Mega Trend? Mega trends are global, sustained and macro economic forces of development that impacts business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change.

Demographics: 인간은 몇 살까지 살 수 있을까? 자료: Unite Nations population statistics; Mc. Kinsey Analysis KISTI 21

By 2030, the world’s population of people aged 65+ will double to 1 billion, raising the overall proportion of those 65 and over. Source : Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping government, KPMG INTERNATIONAL KISTI 22

Climate change : source: Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping government, KPMG INTERNATIONAL KISTI 23

Resource stress : The end of the oil age? 2016 Agricultural robots are appearing on farms KISTI 24

Enabling technology: Technology is changing the face of the business world Connecting rate of improvement and reach today… 1 : for CDC-7600, considered the world’s fastest computer from 1969 to 1975; equivalent to $32 million in 2013 at an average inflation rate of 4. 3 percent per year since launch in 1969. …with economic potential in 2025 2 : Derek Thompson, “IBM’s killer idea: The $100 DNA-sequencing machine, ” The Atlantic, November 16, 2011 3 : Assuming continued cost declines in solar and wind technology and policy support for meeting the global environmental target of CO 2 concentration lower than 450 ppm by 2050 source : Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping government, KPMG INTERNATIONAL KISTI 25

Immortality for Humans by 2045? Sources : Times KISTI 26

§ Prologue § Why is times crisis? § 한국 경제의 구조적 문제 § 기업은 언제까지 지속 성장할 수 있는가? § Why Do Megatrends Matter? § New Technology is changing of the face of the business world § Epilogue KISTI 27

Evolution of Silicon Valley source : Employment Development Department, Labor Market Information Division Analysis : Collaborative Economics KISTI 28

New Companies Launched Innovation Industries Silicon Valley, 2000 -2013 Source : National Establishments Time Series Database, Institute for High Growth Industries Analysis : Collaborative Economics Source : Silicon Valley Competitiveness and Innovation Project - 2015 KISTI 29

3 D Printing 산업은 어디까지 와 있나? 2025 3 D-printed human organs. 3 D printing is commonplace. source: World’s Top Global Mega Trends To 2025 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures, Frost & Sullivan KISTI 31

Big Data & Analytics KISTI 33 33

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Big Data & Analytics KISTI 35

얼마나 많은 로봇이 운영되고 있나? 2020 Robots priced between $1, 566 and $4, 699 could enter our personal lives commercializing the personal robots market source: “Rising Robots: Is it Obvious Robots Cost Human Jobs? Looking for Someone to Blame? ” MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis, Monday, August 18, 2014 by Mike Shedlock KISTI 36 36

source: “How a Takeoff in Advanced Robotics Will Power the Next Productivity Surge “ Published on Feb 02, 2015 by BCG KISTI 37 37

Do industrial robots really have a positive impact on employment? Source: MIT Technology Review, April 12, 2013 by Frank Tobe KISTI 38 38

source: Digital Magazine by SAP, June 25, 2015, “Millennials In The Workforce: What Really Matters To Them” by Shelly Kramer KISTI 39 39 KISTI 39

§ Prologue § Why is times crisis? § 한국 경제의 구조적 문제 § 기업은 언제까지 지속 성장할 수 있는가? § Why Do Megatrends Matter? § New Technology is changing of the face of the business world § Epilogue KISTI 40

Epilogue KISTI 41

Thank you!