201314 Crop Market Outlook Northeast RD Farm Fall

2013/14 Crop Market Outlook Northeast R&D Farm Fall Field Day Nashua, Iowa Aug. 28, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 86. 4 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 97. 4 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 164. 7 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 154. 4 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 092 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 13, 763 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 989 719 Imports (mil. bu. ) 8 28 29 165 30 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 774 14, 182 13, 517 11, 934 14, 512 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 125 4, 795 4, 546 4, 450 5, 100 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 4, 591 5, 019 5, 011 4, 650 4, 900 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 370 1, 407 1, 428 1, 400 1, 450 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 980 1, 834 1, 543 715 1, 225 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 066 13, 055 12, 528 11, 215 12, 675 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 719 1, 837 3. 55 5. 18 6. 22 6. 95 4. 90 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 5 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 43. 5 41. 9 39. 6 42. 6 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 359 3, 329 3, 094 3, 015 3, 255 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 138 151 215 169 125 Imports (mil. bu. ) 15 14 16 35 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 512 3, 495 3, 325 3, 219 3, 396 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 752 1, 648 1, 703 1, 685 1, 675 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 110 130 88 95 116 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 499 1, 501 1, 365 1, 315 1, 385 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 361 3, 280 3, 155 3, 094 3, 176 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 125 220 9. 59 11. 30 12. 50 14. 40 11. 35 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Crop Rating Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Objective Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Corn Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Crop Rating Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2013 Projected Yield Bottom: Change from 2012 Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 77 4. 68 4. 56 Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 12. 77 11. 42 10. 82 Source: CME Group, 8/27/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

New Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Temps Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØCan the new crop beat the summer heat? It had been so far, so good ØThen can it beat the freeze? ØNew crop ratings are decent, Eastern vs. Western Corn Belt ØCorn demand rebounding? ØAcreage allocation for 2014: Where do the extra corn acres go? Corn Soybeans 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA $6. 95 $14. 40 $4. 90 $11. 35 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Futures (8/27/13) $4. 56 $12. 77

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics