2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting
- Slides: 32
2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting Hampton, Iowa June 12, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 86. 4 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 97. 3 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 164. 7 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 156. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 092 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 14, 005 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 989 769 Imports (mil. bu. ) 8 28 29 150 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 774 14, 182 13, 516 11, 919 14, 799 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 125 4, 795 4, 545 4, 400 5, 200 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 4, 591 5, 019 5, 011 4, 650 4, 900 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 370 1, 407 1, 428 1, 400 1, 450 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 980 1, 834 1, 543 700 1, 300 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 066 13, 055 12, 527 11, 150 12, 850 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 769 1, 949 3. 55 5. 18 6. 22 6. 95 4. 80 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 5 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 77. 1 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 43. 5 41. 9 39. 6 44. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 359 3, 329 3, 094 3, 015 3, 390 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 138 151 215 169 125 Imports (mil. bu. ) 15 14 16 25 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 512 3, 495 3, 325 3, 209 3, 530 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 752 1, 648 1, 703 1, 660 1, 695 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 110 130 90 95 119 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 499 1, 501 1, 362 1, 330 1, 450 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 361 3, 280 3, 155 3, 085 3, 264 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 125 265 9. 59 11. 30 12. 50 14. 35 10. 75 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Emergence Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures 5. 08 5. 11 4. 91 Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures 12. 51 12. 13 11. 57 Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
New Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: NWS-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
3 Month Outlook - Temps Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
3 Month Outlook - Precip Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØPlanting and emergence issues for both corn and soybeans ØOld crop is still short and new crop is not proceeding quickly ØCorn demand rebounding? Ethanol has recovered Corn Soybeans 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA $6. 95 $14. 35 $4. 80 $10. 75 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Futures (6/12/13) $5. 08 $12. 51
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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