2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting

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2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting Hampton, Iowa June 12, 2013 Chad

2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting Hampton, Iowa June 12, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 86. 4 88.

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 86. 4 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 97. 3 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 164. 7 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 156. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 092 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 14, 005 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 989 769 Imports (mil. bu. ) 8 28 29 150 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 774 14, 182 13, 516 11, 919 14, 799 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 125 4, 795 4, 545 4, 400 5, 200 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 4, 591 5, 019 5, 011 4, 650 4, 900 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 370 1, 407 1, 428 1, 400 1, 450 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 980 1, 834 1, 543 700 1, 300 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 066 13, 055 12, 527 11, 150 12, 850 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 769 1, 949 3. 55 5. 18 6. 22 6. 95 4. 80 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil.

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 5 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 77. 1 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 43. 5 41. 9 39. 6 44. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 359 3, 329 3, 094 3, 015 3, 390 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 138 151 215 169 125 Imports (mil. bu. ) 15 14 16 25 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 512 3, 495 3, 325 3, 209 3, 530 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 752 1, 648 1, 703 1, 660 1, 695 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 110 130 90 95 119 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 499 1, 501 1, 362 1, 330 1, 450 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 361 3, 280 3, 155 3, 085 3, 264 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 125 265 9. 59 11. 30 12. 50 14. 35 10. 75 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Emergence Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Emergence Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 5. 08 5. 11 4. 91 Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013 Extension

Current Corn Futures 5. 08 5. 11 4. 91 Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 12. 51 12. 13 11. 57 Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013 Extension

Current Soybean Futures 12. 51 12. 13 11. 57 Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

New Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

New Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: NWS-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: NWS-CPC Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Temps Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Temps Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Precip Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Precip Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØPlanting and emergence issues for both corn

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØPlanting and emergence issues for both corn and soybeans ØOld crop is still short and new crop is not proceeding quickly ØCorn demand rebounding? Ethanol has recovered Corn Soybeans 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA $6. 95 $14. 35 $4. 80 $10. 75 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Futures (6/12/13) $5. 08 $12. 51

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate.

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics