2013 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management

2013 Crop Market Outlook ISU Extension Farm Management In-service Nashua, Iowa May 20, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 86. 4 88. 2 91. 9 97. 2 97. 3 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 164. 7 152. 8 147. 2 123. 4 158. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 13, 092 12, 447 12, 360 10, 780 14, 140 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 989 759 Imports (mil. bu. ) 8 28 29 125 25 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 14, 774 14, 182 13, 516 11, 894 14, 924 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 125 4, 795 4, 545 4, 400 5, 325 Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 4, 591 5, 019 5, 011 4, 600 4, 850 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 370 1, 407 1, 428 1, 385 1, 445 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 980 1, 834 1, 543 750 1, 300 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 13, 066 13, 055 12, 527 11, 135 12, 920 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 708 1, 128 989 759 2, 004 3. 55 5. 18 6. 22 6. 90 4. 70 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted (mil. acres) 77. 5 77. 4 75. 0 77. 2 77. 1 Yield (bu. /acre) 44. 0 43. 5 41. 9 39. 6 44. 5 Production (mil. bu. ) 3, 359 3, 329 3, 094 3, 015 3, 390 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 138 151 215 169 125 Imports (mil. bu. ) 15 14 16 20 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 512 3, 495 3, 325 3, 204 3, 530 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 752 1, 648 1, 703 1, 635 1, 695 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 110 130 90 95 120 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 499 1, 501 1, 362 1, 350 1, 450 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 361 3, 280 3, 155 3, 080 3, 264 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 151 215 169 125 265 9. 59 11. 30 12. 50 14. 30 10. 50 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Emergence Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Yields Weather analog year, 1947 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Planting Stats Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Yields Year with planting progress like this year Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U. S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Advance Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures 4. 94 4. 99 Source: CME Group, 5/16/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures 11. 59 11. 52 Source: CME Group, 5/16/2013 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

New Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Temps Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Precip Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond ØSupply/demand concerns ØPlanting progress or lack thereof ØOld crop is still short and new crop is not proceeding quickly ØCorn demand rebounding? Ethanol has recovered slightly Corn Soybeans 2012/13 USDA 2013/14 USDA $6. 90 $14. 30 $4. 70 $10. 50 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2013/14 Futures (5/16/13) $4. 94 $11. 59

Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics