2013 Annual Market Forecast Global Market Forecast Outlook
2013 Annual Market Forecast Global Market Forecast & Outlook Electronic Arts HQ, Redwood City, CA 17 January 2013
2012 -13 Economic Headlines
Google Searches for ‘Economic Forecasts’ 2013
Perspective - Top 10 Google Searches for 2012 Top 10 Worldwide Top 10 USA 1. Whitney Houston 2. Gangnam Style 2. Hurricane Sandy 3. 2012 US Election 4. i. Pad 3 4. Hunger Games 5. Diablo 3* 5. Jeremy Lin* 6. Kate Middleton 6. Olympics 2012 7. Amanda Todd 8. Amanda Todd* 8. Gangnam Style 9. Michael Clarke Duncan* 9. Michael Clarke Duncan 10 BBB 12* 10. KONY 2012* Source: http: //www. google. com/zeitgeist/2012/#the-world
Speakers & Agenda • EMEA – Dr. Lee Elliott – Head of EMEA Research, Jones Lang La. Salle • APAC – Mr. Hans Vrensen – Global Head of Research, DTZ • Americas – Ms. Brook Scott – Head of Americas Occupier Research, CBRE • San Francisco Bay Area – Ms. Maria Sicola – Executive Managing Director of Research, Cushman & Wakefield • Moderator – Mr. Sven Pole – Executive Vice President, Global Corporate Services, CBRE
Format of Presentations • Macroeconomic Indicators By Region • Labor Market Outlook By Region • Commercial Office Markets – – Supply/Demand Vacancy vs. Net Absorption Rental Rates Market Cycles • Market Strategies & Opportunities • Key Trends in 2013
Europe, Middle East, Africa Dr. Lee Elliott - Head of EMEA Research, Jones Lang La. Salle
Macro Economic Indicators By Region
Macro Economic Indicators By Region GDP % Yo. Y 1981 -2016
Macro Economic Indicators By Region GDP Growth Forecast 2013 < 0% 0. 0 – 0. 9% 1. 0 – 1. 9% 2. 0 – 2. 9% > 3. 0% 0. 7% 2. 0% 3. 4% 1. 1% 1. 0% 1. 2% 0. 4% 0. 5% 2. 4% 1. 0% 0. 8% 0. 5% -2. 0% 0. 8% -0. 5% -2. 0% 1. 8% 2. 5% 4. 2% -3. 4% Source: Consensus Economics, October 2012
Macro Economic Indicators By Region Plus ça change – Eurozone crisis is still key threat Some improvements, but underlying problems remain Sudden recovery (10%) Muddling along (60%) Disorderly deterioration (30%) (but nightmare case <10%)
Labor Market Outlook By Region Fragile corporate confidence persists Source: European Commission, November 2012
Labor Market Outlook By Region
Office Markets – Supply / Demand in ‘ 000 sq m Net absorption positive but moderate through 2012 Source: Jones Lang La. Salle, October 2012
Office Market – Vacancy vs. Absorption 14000 12 12000 10 10000 8 8000 6 6000 4 4000 2 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Completions (000 sq m) 2010 2011 2012 (F) Take-up (000 sq m) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) Vacancy Rate (%) 2015 (F) Vacancy Rate % Take-up / Completions (000 sq m) Completion volumes weak, forecast to improve but with downside risk
Office Market – Vacancy vs. Absorption Q 4 2014 (%) Q 3 2012 (%) Europe 9. 7% Source: Jones Lang La. Salle, October 2012 Europe 9. 5%
Office Market – Rental Rates 13% 8% 15% 20% 0% Effective Rent Source: Jones Lang La. Salle IP, October 2012 Prime Rent 16% 7% 4% % = Average Incentives as % of Prime Rent 17% Barcelona 12% Lisbon 10% Budapest 17% Prague 16% Brussels 12% Madrid 7% Warsaw 22% Dublin Istanbul Frankfurt/M Rome Milan Stockholm London-City Paris 5% Bucharest 13% Kiev 13% Amsterdam 17% Moscow 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 London-WE Rent US$/ ft² pa Prime Rents & Effective Rents 2012 Q 3
Office Market – Rental Rates Amsterdam, Eindhoven, Geneva, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht Paris CBD, London West End Helsinki, London City Oslo, Stuttgart, Rabat Tel Aviv Berlin, Cologne, Lyon, Casablanca Warsaw Stockholm, Düsseldorf, Moscow Hamburg Copenhagen Zurich Milan Rental Growth Slowing Rents Falling Rental Growth Accelerating Rents Bottoming Out Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa Munich Algiers Gothenburg Krakow Southampton, Liverpool Kuwait City, Zagreb Abu Dhabi, Doha, Muscat, Riyadh Johannesburg, Luxembourg Western Corridor Manchester Source: Jones Lang La. Salle IP, October 2012 Antwerp, Athens, Nottingham, Jeddah, Cairo, Manama Lisbon, Newcastle, Rome, Belgrade Budapest, Madrid Barcelona, Brussels, Dublin, Tunis Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Leeds, Malmo, Istanbul, Dubai, Kiev, Tri-City, Bucharest, Bratislava, Prague
Office Market – Market Cycles 2013 2014 Amsterdam Dublin Frankfurt London City London West End Madrid Milan Moscow Paris CBD Prague Stockholm Warsaw Tenant Favourable Market Conditions Balanced Market Conditions Landlord Favourable Market Conditions 2015
Market Strategies & Opportunities 1. Raising the productivity of people and places as well as managing cost 2. Leveraging technology and analytics to enhance decision making / strategy 3. Securing scarce investment capital from within the business 4. Attracting and retaining talent 5. Managing mobility – functional and worker mobility
Key Trends in 2013 Operating Environment Confidence to steadily rebuild over H 1. Selective strategic investment in H 2 including M&A CRE Agenda Enhancing productive through transformation. Selective platform building esp Africa Competition Moderate though improving in H 2 and tipping market conditions away from occupiers Choice Polarised supply side with acute lack of transformative space and no respite from the pipeline Cost 1 st movers protected from significant rental uplifts. Laggards hit hard. It’s about more than rents
Asia Pacific Mr. Hans Vrensen - Global Head of Research, DTZ
Contents • • Global economic overview Asia Pacific market update Downside scenario analysis Conclusions
Asia Pacific keeps going, but mind the range Average GDP and employment growth by country Source: Oxford Economics
Probability of multiple EU exit at highest level ever Estimated scenario probabilities Source: Oxford Economics
Downside scenario will have lasting impact on all regions Average GDP growth 2013 -17 Source: Oxford Economics
Low government bonds yields mean low hurdle rate for property Selected government bond yields Italy US US Japan Source: Oxford Economics
Risk appetite remains strong for corporate bond yields Composite corporate bond yields Source: Bloomberg
Cost savings across the board in downside scenario Regional prime rental growth, base case and scenarios, (2013 -14 pa) Source: DTZ Research
Contents • • Global economic overview Asia Pacific market update Downside scenario analysis Conclusions
Strong rental growth in many developing markets DTZ Rental wave APAC Source: DTZ Research
Office demand remains strong in the majority of markets Absolute net absorption in 2011 and 2012
Asia Pacific the only region with above inflation growth in occupancy costs Growth in total occupancy costs per workstation 2011 -2012 (in USD) Source: DTZ Research/Oxford Economics
Contents • • Global economic overview Asia Pacific market update Downside scenario analysis Conclusions
Asia Pacific well placed to deal with negative impacts of Euro breakup Annualised GDP growth 2013 -2017 Source: DTZ Research
Downside scenario chart on Asia Pacific office rents Annualised rental growth 2013 -17 Source: DTZ Research
Where downside offers opportunities? Annualised change in occupancy costs (2012 -2014) Source: DTZ Research
Contents • • Global economic overview Asia Pacific market update Downside scenario analysis Conclusions
Key views for 2013 • The probability of multiple Eurozone exits is higher than ever, despite this we think that property market risks have been over estimated by occupiers • Asia Pacific occupiers are expected to benefit from more affordable occupancy per workstation costs compared to western markets • Indian and second tier Chinese markets will remain amongst the most affordable markets in the region, despite forecasts rental growth coming
Americas Ms. Brook Scott - Head of Americas Occupier Research, CBRE
Macro Economic Indicators By Region (Real GDP, Annual % Change) 6% 2012 2013 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Asia-Pacific Latin America Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012 World United States Canada
U. S. Labor Market Outlook 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US Net Jobs (Millions), Left-Hand Side Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012 2013 2014 0%
Canadian Labor Market Outlook 500 9% 400 8% 300 7% 6% 200 5% 100 4% 0 3% -100 2% -200 1% -300 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Canada Net Jobs (1000 s), Left-Hand Side Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012 2013 2014
Latin American Economic Outlook 7% 16% 6% 14% 5% 12% 4% 10% 3% 8% 2% 6% 1% 4% 0% 2% -1% -2% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Real GDP Growth, Left-Hand Side Source: IHS Global Insight, December 2012 2013 2014 2015 0%
US Office Market – Supply / Demand (SF x 1000) (Vacancy Rate) 100 000 18% 80 000 16% 60 000 14% 12% 40 000 10% 20 000 8% 0 6% -20 000 4% -40 000 2% -60 000 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Completions (SF x 1000) Source: CBRE EA, Q 3 2012 Net Absorption (SF x 1000) Vacancy Rate (%)
Canada Office Market – Supply / Demand (SF x 1000) (Vacancy Rate) 14 000 16% 12 000 14% 10 000 12% 8 000 10% 6 000 8% 4 000 6% 2 000 - 4% (2 000) 2% (4 000) 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Completions (SF x 1000) Source: CBRE Research, Q 3 2012. Net Absorption (SF x 1000)
Latin America Office Market – Supply/Demand (SF x 1000) (Vacancy Rate) 1 400 16% 1 200 14% 12% 1 000 10% 800 8% 600 6% 400 4% 200 2% 0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 Completions (SF x 1000) Source: CBRE Research, Q 3 2012. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change in Occupied Space (SF x 1000)
C M en n) C ez ue Fr ( la D an ow ci nt sc ow o (D n) Bo ow st nt on Lo ow N ew s (D n) An ow Yo ge nt rk le ow (D s n) (S ow u nt bu ow rb n an M ) an Bo ha go tta ta n) , C C al ol ga om ry bi (D a To o w ro nt nt ow o Va (D n) nc ow ou nt ve ow r( n) D ow nt ow n) n, D tta ro ne i Ja o Pa ul an ha de Sa o ca s, V ar a n io R w to id (M in gt o as h rk Yo Sa n W ew N Prime Office Occupancy Costs (US$/sq. ft. /annum) $ 140 $ 120 $ 100 $ 80 $ 60 $ 40 $ 20 $- Source: CBRE Research, Q 3 2012.
Largest Annual Prime Occupancy Cost Increases (Annual Percent Change, Americas (Q 3 2012) San Francisco (Downtown), U. S. San Francisco (Peninsula), U. S. Seattle (Suburban), U. S. Calgary (Suburban), Canada Lima, Peru Boston (Downtown), U. S. Panama City, Panama Calgary (Downtown), Canada Vancouver (Downtown), Canada Denver (Downtown), U. S. Houston (Suburban), U. S. Houston (Downtown), U. S. New York (Downtown Manhattan), U. S. Boston (Suburban), U. S. Sao Paulo, Brazil 0% Source: CBRE Research, Q 3 2012. 10% 20% 30% 40%
Americas Office Rent Cycle Source: CBRE Research, Q 3 2012.
Market Strategies & Opportunities • Continued focus on reducing overall office footprint • Emphasis on collaborative space • Use of amenities to attract and retain workers • Importance of tech-enabled space • Sustainability focus: “healthy” building materials
Key Trends in 2013 • Fate of North American office markets inextricably tied to political outcomes • Fewer opportunities to negotiate favorable lease terms • Accelerating rent growth – Downtown • Focus on workplace strategies
San Francisco Bay Area Ms. Maria Sicola - Executive Managing Director of Research, Cushman & Wakefield
Macro Economic Indicators By Region • Bay Area is the Epicenter of Technology – Since the late 1950 s (founding of Fairchild Semiconductor) through 2012 (Facebook now has one billion active users) • The West Coast Business Center for Traditional Industries – Finance and law • Highly Skilled and Educated Workforce – Large concentration of research labs and top universities in the world (Stanford, UC Berkeley, Santa Clara) – Highly educated workforce – Job recovery outpacing nation • Largest amount of venture capital invested in the U. S. • Housing Stabilizing • Quality of life – Great cultural institutions, entertainment venues, restaurants – Natural setting
Macro Economic Indicators VENTURE CAPITAL FUELS LEASING Total Invested: $2. 6 billion Total # of Deals 268 deals % Breakdown by Industry Venture Capital Investments by Region Northwest 3% Software 43. 6% IT Services 13. 9% Biotechnology 12. 1% Computers & Peripherals 5. 8% Media and Entertainment 5. 3% Semiconductors 3. 5% Financial Services 3. 0% Other 12. 8% Other 11% DC/Metroplex 3% Southeast 4% Silicon Valley / Bay Area 40% San Diego 4% Midwest 7% LA/Orange County 7% NY Metro 8% New England 13% SOURCE: : PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS MONEY TREE REPORT, THIRD QUARTER 2012
Labor Market Outlook 160, 0% 140, 0% 139. 5% Note: US Trough=February 2010 San Francisco Trough=February 2010 116, 1% 120, 0% 99. 4% 100, 0% 88, 4% 80, 0% 65, 9% 54, 7% 40, 0% 20. 4% 20, 0% 3. 6% 0, 0% Total US San Francisco Office-Using Oakland Silicon Valley SOURCE: US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
26. 4 4, 8 Tr 6, 3 Tr il 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 ad e F i an na sp nc or ia l t& Ut ilit ie Go s ve rn m en t le 8, 8 sa Thousands of Persons -1, 6 le fe ss io Ed na uc l. S at er i vic on Le es isu an d re He an a d Ho lth sp ita lit y Hi gh Te Of ch fic e. Us in g W Re ho ta le il Tr sa an le Tr sp a or t & de Ut ilit ie In s fo rm at Go io n ve rn m en Fin t an M an cia uf l ac tu rin g Pr o 0, 2 ta y 5, 7 Re lit 13, 9 ho ta g in ur n io 12, 7 pi Ho s ct at ad e er nm en t Tr F i an na sp nc or ia t& l Ut ilit ie s Go v g Total Change +63, 800 W an d uf a an M 15, 2 isu re 20, 3 rm th es He al vic ch Tr -0, 5 Le d an Se r le rin 0, 5 In fo n io na l Te sa le ho l 1, 0 at Ed uc ss io fe g sin 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Hi gh tu ta i Re 6, 6 W uf ac an M He al th fo rm at io n lit y 24. 6 Pr o -U ce Of fi s ch Te sp ita d an In n io Ho ice 7, 8 Thousands of Persons at an d gh Hi 25, 8 Ed uc isu re g sin rv Se Thousands of Persons 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Le na l e. U Of fic ss io fe Pr o Labor Market Outlook By Industry Sector SAN FRANCISCO OAKLAND 31, 9 8, 3 8, 2 5, 5 3, 0 Total Change 20, 200 1, 2 4. 4 4, 0 2, 8 2, 3 -0, 2 -0, 8 -2, 4 -3, 5 -5, 0 SILICON VALLEY 34, 2 Total Change +72, 500 0, 6 -3, 5 SOURCE: US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
Office Markets: Bay Area – Q 4 2009
Office Markets: Bay Area – Q 4 2012
San Francisco Office Market – Current Tenant Demand By Industry Sector Software / Technology, 49, 3%, 49% Other, 5, 7%, 6% Non-Profit, 1, 0%, 1% Accounting, 2, 7%, 3% Medical / Healthcare, 1, 9%, 2% 8, 8%, Legal Services, Advertising / Media, 6, 5%, 7% 9% Insurance, 1, 1%, 0, 5%, 1% Government, Financial 1% Services, Environmental, Energy 1% 1% 5, 2%, 5% , 1, 4%, Education, 0, 7%, 1% Architecture / Engineering, 6, 2%, 6% Business Services, 4, 3%, 4% Communications, Construction / Real 0, 4%, 0% Estate, 2, 7%, 3% 4, 565, 000 Square Feet of Total Active Tenant Requirements
San Francisco Office Market – Q 2 Rent Comparisons 2012 Q 4 Yo. Y 2011 2012 Growth (%) Tech Index $49. 26 $51. 89 5. 3% “Class A Tech” $50. 70 $52. 83 4. 2% “Prime Creative Tech” $44. 16 $50. 14 13. 5% TECH INDEX: tracks a distinct set of buildings that have the highest concentration of tech firms in San Francisco. While this index does not include all buildings occupied by tech users, it does differentiate between “Class A Tech” buildings and “Prime Creative Tech. ” “PRIME CREATIVE” space, defined as historic and/or brick & timber construction that has undergone a major retrofit within the past 15 yrs, currently consists of 37 buildings with a total inventory of 4. 5 msf. “CLASS A TECH” is defined as traditional class A, mid- and low-rise office space that has been modified to accommodate technology and creative users in a non-traditional office environment. Features often include design elements such as exposed ceilings and duct-work and indirect lighting.
San Francisco Office - Vacancy Rate Vs. Rental Rates $60, 00 Asking Rental Rate FORECAST Vacancy Rate $56, 30 $53, 09 $41, 32 $43, 55 $32, 52 $31, 28 $33, 36 $30, 72 $25, 92 $26, 16 $27, 60 $20, 00 $33, 48 $30, 00 $40, 18 $40, 00 $50, 32 $50, 00 30, 0% 25, 0% 20, 0% 15, 0% 10, 0% $10, 00 5, 0% $0, 00 0, 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 f 2014 f SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH
Silicon Valley Office - Vacancy Rate Vs. Rental Rates $60, 00 Asking Rental Rate FORECAST Vacancy Rate 30, 0% 25, 0% $40, 00 20, 0% $31, 73 $30, 38 $29, 35 $26, 70 $27, 95 $28, 28 $31, 99 $30, 67 $24, 84 $23, 60 $23, 88 $24, 00 $20, 00 $29, 40 $30, 00 $40, 20 $50, 00 15, 0% 10, 0% $10, 00 5, 0% $0, 00 0, 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 f 2014 f SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH
US CBD Office Rent Cycles Accelerating Slow Growth San Francisco Midtown South Boston Houston Midtown Manhattan Downtown NY LANDLORD FAVORABLE (Q 3 2012) Downturn New Haven Hartford, Tampa Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale Orange County, Jacksonville Palm Beach San Diego, Los Angeles, Miami, Sacramento Denver Chicago Portland Dallas, Fairfield County Westchester County Atlanta, Baltimore Oakland Recovering Rent still elevated but falling from top of market cycle. Falling rents promise future opportunity for tenants Rent growth accelerating Ideal for owners of property Rent at or near bottom of market cycle. Ideal for tenants leasing or seeking to lease property Rent growth slowing. Still landlord favorable but growth is down from peak SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH TENANT FAVORABLE Washington DC
US Suburban Office Rent Cycles San Francisco Baltimore Silicon Valley San Francisco Peninsula Northern VA Suburban MD Downturn Houston Denver St. Petersburg Long Island, Hartford Westchester County New Haven, Boston Chicago, Philadelphia Fairfield County Ft. Lauderdale Orange County Los Angeles, Contra Costa Jacksonville, Miami, Sacramento Palm Beach, Central NJ Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa San Diego, Southern NH Northern NJ, Orlando, Atlanta Oakland, Inland Empire, Dallas, Portland Recovering TENANT FAVORABLE Accelerating Slow Growth LANDLORD FAVORABLE (Q 3 2012) Rent still elevated but falling from top of market cycle. Falling rents promise future opportunity for tenants Rent growth accelerating Ideal for owners of property Rent at or near bottom of market cycle. Ideal for tenants leasing or seeking to lease property Rent growth slowing. Still landlord favorable but growth is down from peak SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH
Key Trends in 2013 • Tech will continue to dominate job growth • Firms maintain a strong presence in San Francisco • Traditional users may move some operations to lower-cost suburban markets, but will keep headquarters in San Francisco • Construction pipeline ramping up across major markets; Much of this space is pre-leased – Office construction increasing in Silicon Valley and going vertical
Market Strategies & Opportunities • San Francisco and Silicon Valley will remain a tech “hot spot” given high concentration of talent, firms and venture capital. – Act now – this could last another 36 months • Outdated real estate will be replaced with newer, more efficient space. – Renovations will continue in San Francisco – New construction in Silicon Valley will replace old/tired space • It’s what is inside that counts – Interior design – Flexibility in workplace strategies
Panel Discussion – Q&A Mr. Sven Pole - Executive Vice President, Global Corporate Services, CBRE
2013 Annual Market Forecast Global Market Forecast & Outlook Electronic Arts HQ, Redwood City, CA 17 January 2013
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