2012 TC Ensemble Forecasts Jiayi Peng Yuejian Zhu

2012 TC Ensemble Forecasts Jiayi Peng Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus Environmental Modeling Center /NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD 20740 Acknowledgements: EMC Ensemble Team, EMC HWRF Team Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Tim Marchok) Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Outline: (1)Track Forecast Reviews for Hurricane Sandy (2)TC track verifications during May-Oct. /2012

Models and Data AEMN----NCEP (GEFS-T 254) Ensemble Mean (20 members) AVNO ----GFS T 574 Deterministic CEMN----CMC (GEM, 66 km) Ensemble Mean (20 members) CMC ----CMC Deterministic EEMN----ECMWF (IFS T 639) Ensemble Mean (50 members) EMX ----ECMWF Deterministic FEMN----FNMOC(NOGAPS T 159) Ensemble Mean (20 members) 2 NAE---- NCEP+ECMWF 70 -member Mean 3 EMN---- NCEP+ECMWF+CMC 90 -member Mean 4 EMN---- NCEP+ECMWF+CMC+FNMOC 110 -member Mean 6 EMN----6 -member mean (EMX, CMC, AVNO, EEMN, CEMN, AEMN) OFCL----NHC official forecast JTWC----JTWC official forecast Data: 05/01~10/29/2012 NCEP, CMC, ECMWF, FNMOC tropical cyclone tracks

Monster Storm “Sandy” • At least 56 people in the United States and one in Canada died during the storm, raising Sandy's overall death toll to 124 after earlier claiming 67 lives in the Caribbean. • Many families lost their homes.

Monster Storm “Sandy” Homes are flooded after Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the southern New Jersey coastline in this U. S. Coast Guard handout photo of Tuckerton, New Jersey on Tuesday. http: //www. nbcnews. com/

Monster Storm “Sandy” Foundations and pilings are all that remain of brick buildings and a boardwalk in Atlantic City, N. J. , Tuesday, after Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the East Coast.

Monster Storm “Sandy” Emergency personnel rescue a resident from flood waters in Little Ferry, New Jersey on Tuesday

Monster Storm “Sandy” This aerial photo shows burned-out homes in the Breezy Point section of the Queens borough New York after a fire on Tuesday (80 -100 homes destroyed).

Monster Storm “Sandy” Cars traveling the Grafton road, south of Morgantown, W. Va. , turn through fallen trees and tree limbs resulting from a heavy snowfall Tuesday morning. The storm that hit late Monday and into Tuesday dumped up to 19 inches of snow in West Virginia, cutting electricity to about 268, 000 customers at its peak and closing dozens of roads.

Superstorm Storm “Sandy”

Landfall at Atlantic City, New Jersey, 8 pm EDT, 10/29/2012

Sandy track ensemble forecast, 10/29 00 Z EEMN----ECMWF Ensemble Mean EMX ----ECMWF Deterministic CEMN----CMC Ensemble Mean CMC ----CMC Deterministic AEMN----NCEP Ensemble Mean AVNO ----GFS T 574 Deterministic 3 EMN---- NCEP+ECMWF+CMC 90 -member Mean 6 EMN----6 -member mean (EMX, CMC, AVNO, EEMN, CEMN, AEMN)

Sandy track ensemble forecast, 10/28 00 Z EEMN----ECMWF Ensemble Mean EMX ----ECMWF Deterministic CEMN----CMC Ensemble Mean CMC ----CMC Deterministic AEMN----NCEP Ensemble Mean AVNO ----GFS T 574 Deterministic 3 EMN---- NCEP+ECMWF+CMC 90 -member Mean 6 EMN----6 -member mean (EMX, CMC, AVNO, EEMN, CEMN, AEMN)

Sandy track ensemble forecast, 10/27 00 Z EEMN----ECMWF Ensemble Mean EMX ----ECMWF Deterministic CEMN----CMC Ensemble Mean CMC ----CMC Deterministic AEMN----NCEP Ensemble Mean AVNO ----GFS T 574 Deterministic 3 EMN---- NCEP+ECMWF+CMC 90 -member Mean 6 EMN----6 -member mean (EMX, CMC, AVNO, EEMN, CEMN, AEMN)

Sandy track ensemble forecast, 10/26 00 Z EEMN----ECMWF Ensemble Mean EMX ----ECMWF Deterministic CEMN----CMC Ensemble Mean CMC ----CMC Deterministic AEMN----NCEP Ensemble Mean AVNO ----GFS T 574 Deterministic 3 EMN---- NCEP+ECMWF+CMC 90 -member Mean 6 EMN----6 -member mean (EMX, CMC, AVNO, EEMN, CEMN, AEMN)

Sandy track ensemble forecast, 10/25 00 Z EEMN----ECMWF Ensemble Mean EMX ----ECMWF Deterministic CEMN----CMC Ensemble Mean CMC ----CMC Deterministic AEMN----NCEP Ensemble Mean AVNO ----GFS T 574 Deterministic 3 EMN---- NCEP+ECMWF+CMC 90 -member Mean 6 EMN----6 -member mean (EMX, CMC, AVNO, EEMN, CEMN, AEMN)

Hurricane Sandy Track Statistics 350 Track error(NM) 300 250 EEMN AEMN 200 CEMN FEMN 150 EMX AVNO CMC 100 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 14 2 12 13 3 24 12 4 36 11 5 48 10 6 72 8 7 96 6 8 120 4 At day-2 and 3, GEFS forecast looks better than the other ensemble forecast.

Atlantic, AL 01 -19, 05/01~10/29, 2012 350 300 Track error(NM) 250 EEMN AEMN 200 CEMN FEMN 150 EMX AVNO CMC 100 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 213 2 12 186 3 24 166 4 36 147 5 48 130 6 72 102 7 96 81 8 120 60 At day-(2, 3 and 4), GEFS forecast looks better than the other ensemble forecast.

East Pacific, EP 01 -16, 05/01~10/29, 2012 250 Track error(NM) 200 EEMN 150 AEMN CEMN FEMN EMX 100 AVNO CMC 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 153 2 12 133 3 24 115 4 36 101 5 48 86 6 72 57 7 96 33 8 120 16 ECMWF ensemble forecast looks better than the other ensemble forecast.

West Pacific, WP 03 -24, 05/01~10/29, 2012 500 450 Track error(NM) 400 350 EEMN 300 AEMN CEMN 250 FEMN EMX 200 AVNO CMC 150 100 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 266 2 12 243 3 24 224 4 36 197 5 48 170 6 72 126 7 96 83 8 120 48 At day-(3, 4 and 5), GEFS forecast looks better than the other ensemble forecast.

Multiple Model Ensemble AL 01 -19 2012 250 Track error(NM) 200 150 2 NAE 3 EMN 4 EMN EEMN 100 EMX 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 216 2 12 193 3 24 174 4 36 153 5 48 136 6 72 108 2 NAE is better than EEMN (ECMWF ensemble forecast). 7 96 86 8 120 64

Multiple Model Ensemble EP 01 -16 2012 Track error(NM) 150 100 2 NAE 3 EMN 4 EMN EMX 50 0 Hour 001 Case 154 2 12 137 3 24 122 4 36 106 5 48 91 726 63 967 38 1208 21 At day-4 and day-5, 2 NAE is better than EEMN (ECMWF ensemble forecast).

Multiple Model Ensemble WP 03 -24 2012 300 Track error(NM) 250 200 2 NAE 3 EMN 150 4 EMN EMX 100 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 268 2 12 254 3 24 236 4 36 214 5 48 193 6 72 148 2 NAE is better than EEMN (ECMWF ensemble forecast). 7 96 106 8 120 67

NHC OFCL AL 01 -19, 2012 250 Track error(NM) 200 150 2 NAE AEMN AVNO 100 OFCL 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 199 2 12 175 3 24 155 4 36 134 5 48 117 2 NAE is better than OFCL (NHC official forecast). 6 72 89 7 96 70 8 120 50

NHC OFCL EP 01 -16, 2012 180 160 140 Track error(NM) 120 2 NAE 100 AEMN AVNO 80 OFCL 60 40 20 0 1 Hour 00 Case 154 2 12 137 3 24 120 4 36 104 5 48 89 6 72 61 East Pacific, 2 NAE is better than OFCL (NHC official forecast). 7 96 38 8 120 21

JTWC WP 03 -24, 2012 250 Track error(NM) 200 150 2 NAE AEMN AVNO 100 JTWC 50 0 1 Hour 00 Case 261 2 12 247 3 24 230 4 36 206 5 48 182 6 72 140 7 96 95 West Pacific, 2 NAE is better than JTWC (JTWC official forecast). 8 120 64

AL 04 Debby, June 20~30, 2012 Forecast at June 24, 00 Z

AL 04 Debby, large uncertainty in forecast at June 24, 00 Z

Summary • GEFS did a very good job in Atlantic and West Pacific TC track forecast. • ECMWF ensemble did better in East Pacific TC track forecast. • The multi-model (NCEP+ECMWF) ensemble forecast is the optimal guidance for the forecasters in NHC and JTWC.

Costliest storms to hit U. S. East Coast A list of the 10 costliest Atlantic cyclones to hit the U. S. mainland since 1900. Figures not adjusted for inflation. Rank Name Year Damage 1 Katrina Category 3 2005 $108 billion 2 Ike Category 2 2008 $29. 5 billion 3 Andrew Category 5 1992 $26. 5 billion 4 Wilma Category 3 2005 $21 billion 5 Ivan Category 3 2004 $18. 8 billion 6 Charley Category 4 2004 $15. 1 billion 7 Rita Category 3 2005 $12 billion 8 Frances Category 2 2004 $9. 5 billion 9 Allison Tropical storm 2001 $9 billion 10 Jeanne Category 3 2004 $7. 7 billion http: //www. cnn. com/2012/10/31/us/tropical-weather-sandy/index. html