2012 Election What Weve Learned Carroll J Doherty

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2012 Election: What We’ve Learned Carroll J. Doherty Associate Director Pew Research Center for

2012 Election: What We’ve Learned Carroll J. Doherty Associate Director Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Pew Center on the States – Voting in America 2012 December 10, 2012 [email protected] org

The Electorate – The Most Diverse Ever • Changing Composition of the Electorate Helped

The Electorate – The Most Diverse Ever • Changing Composition of the Electorate Helped Obama • Change from 2008 Was Modest – Nonwhites 28% of All Voters, Up From 26% • Demographics of Future Elections Will Look Much Different than Those of Today Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 2

Obama Lost Whites by 20 Points – And Won Based on exit poll data

Obama Lost Whites by 20 Points – And Won Based on exit poll data from National Election Pool Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 3

Changing Face of the American Voter Dramatic Shifts among Young Voters - Now 42%

Changing Face of the American Voter Dramatic Shifts among Young Voters - Now 42% Nonwhite Voters 18 -29 4 10 12 74 4 6 7 13 14 18 15 68 18 17 Voters 30+ 42% Nonwhite 58 3 7 11 4 8 12 82 79 77 76 24% Nonwhite Other Hispanic 62 3 6 9 Black White 2000 2004 2008 2012 Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 4

Age Gap in Voting Preferences Based on exit poll data from the National Election

Age Gap in Voting Preferences Based on exit poll data from the National Election Pool Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 5

By 2050, A Majority-Minority Nation Population By Race And Ethnicity, Actual and Projected: 1960

By 2050, A Majority-Minority Nation Population By Race And Ethnicity, Actual and Projected: 1960 85 2011 2050 63 47 29 17 12 11 3. 5 White 13 0. 6 Hispanic Black 5 9 Asian Pew Social and Demographic Trends Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 6

Profile of Nonvoters: Younger, More Hispanic All adults Likely voters Nonvoters White, non-Hispanic 68

Profile of Nonvoters: Younger, More Hispanic All adults Likely voters Nonvoters White, non-Hispanic 68 74 59 Black non-Hispanic 11 12 10 Hispanic 12 7 21 18 -29 21 13 36 30 -49 33 31 35 50 -64 29 33 20 65+ 16 21 8 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 7

Social Media and Politics • Facebook, Twitter Growing News Sources • They Help Drive

Social Media and Politics • Facebook, Twitter Growing News Sources • They Help Drive Campaign Narrative … • A Mostly Negative Narrative • A “Fifth Estate” of Political Actors – Partisan and Passionate Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 8

Online Participatory Politics Pew Internet & American Life Project Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch.

Online Participatory Politics Pew Internet & American Life Project Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 9

Social Networkers: Beyond Red vs. Blue Pew Internet & American Life Project Dec. 10,

Social Networkers: Beyond Red vs. Blue Pew Internet & American Life Project Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 10

Campaign 2012: A Final Word Compared with past elections, more or less discussion of

Campaign 2012: A Final Word Compared with past elections, more or less discussion of issues? More than usual Less than usual Compared with past elections, more or less mudslinging? More than usual Less than usual 68 57 54 51 34 38 27 19 2008 2012 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 11

Few Complaints about Voting Process How well was the voting process managed in the

Few Complaints about Voting Process How well was the voting process managed in the area where you live? Not well 6% Did you have any problems voting this year (other than waiting in line)? Yes 3 No 20% Fairly well 97 Do you know anyone who tried to vote but was not able to? 73% Very well Yes No 9 91 Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Dec. 10, 2012 www. pewresearch. org 12

2012 Election: What We’ve Learned Carroll J. Doherty Associate Director Pew Research Center for

2012 Election: What We’ve Learned Carroll J. Doherty Associate Director Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Pew Center on the States – Voting in America 2012 December 10, 2012 [email protected] org