2012 Crop Market Outlook Women in Ag Marketing
- Slides: 32
2012 Crop Market Outlook Women in Ag Marketing Meeting Iowa Falls, Iowa Apr. 4, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate. edu 515 -294 -9911 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Corn Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 86. 0 86. 4 88. 2 91. 9 94. 0 95. 9 Area Planted (mil. acres) Yield (bu. /acre) 153. 9 164. 7 152. 8 147. 2 164. 0 Production (mil. bu. ) 12, 092 13, 092 12, 447 12, 358 14, 558 14, 270 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 624 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 Imports (mil. bu. ) 14 8 28 20 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 13, 729 14, 774 14, 182 13, 506 15, 086 Feed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 5, 182 5, 125 4, 793 4, 600 5, 200 ? Ethanol (mil. bu. ) 3, 709 4, 591 5, 021 5, 000 4, 950 Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu. ) 1, 316 1, 370 1, 407 1, 405 1, 420 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 849 1, 980 1, 835 1, 700 1, 900 ? Total Use (mil. bu. ) 12, 056 13, 066 13, 055 12, 705 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 1, 673 1, 708 1, 128 4. 06 3. 55 5. 18 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) 801 ? 13, 470 801? 1, 616 ? 6. 20 5. 00 ? Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Soybean Supply and Use 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Area Planted (mil. acres) 75. 7 77. 5 77. 4 75. 0 73. 9 Yield (bu. /acre) 39. 7 44. 0 43. 5 41. 5 43. 9 Production (mil. bu. ) 2, 967 3, 359 3, 329 3, 056 3, 250 3, 202 Beg. Stocks (mil. bu. ) 205 138 151 215 275 Imports (mil. bu. ) 13 15 14 15 15 Total Supply (mil. bu. ) 3, 185 3, 512 3, 495 3, 286 3, 540 Crush (mil. bu. ) 1, 662 1, 752 1, 648 1, 615 1, 660 Seed & Residual (mil. bu. ) 106 110 130 126 Exports (mil. bu. ) 1, 279 1, 499 1, 501 1, 275 1, 550 Total Use (mil. bu. ) 3, 047 3, 361 3, 280 3, 011 3, 335 Ending Stocks (mil. bu. ) 138 151 215 275 9. 97 9. 59 11. 30 12. 00 Season-Average Price ($/bu. ) ? ? ? 11. 50 ? 205 Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Intentions Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soybean Intentions Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Intentions vs. Plantings Source: USDA-NASS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 4/2/2012 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Change of Export Pace Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE-EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE-EIA Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
U. S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7. 6 bil. gal. 7. 4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price Cost Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price Cost Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price Cost Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price Cost Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Iowa Crop Margins Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
2012 Crop Prices Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
3 Month Precipitation Outlook Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Corn Futures 6. 01 5. 31 5. 26 5. 13 Source: CME Group, 4/2/2012 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Current Soybean Futures 13. 18 12. 36 12. 14 11. 86 Source: CME Group, 4/2/2012 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond ØGeneral economic conditions ØContinued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices ØUS job recovery, European financial concerns ØSupply/demand concerns ØWorries about dry conditions in South America and in U. S. ØBiofuel growth and energy demand ØWill supply be able to keep pace with demand? Ø Nearly 96 million acres of corn might do the trick Ø Roughly 74 million acres of soybeans might not Ø 2011/12: USDA: Futures (as of 4/2/12): Corn $6. 20; Soy $12. 00 Corn $6. 01; Soy $12. 36 Ø 2012/13: Futures (as of 4/2/12): Corn $5. 31; Soy $13. 18 Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/~chart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http: //www. econ. iastate. edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http: //www. extension. iastate. edu/agdm/ Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics
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