2011 ARGOS consortium meeting Australia Blake Orr ARPANSA

2011 ARGOS consortium meeting Australia Blake Orr ARPANSA Blake. Orr@arpansa. gov. au

ARGOS timeline 2010 -1: Testing and Evaluation of ARGOS V 9. 0 releases. Final release September. Upgraded BOM data (ACCESS Model) and subsequent changes to ARGOS V 9. 0 (provided in Service Pack 1) NZ visit • Assist with installation of ARGOS • Provide some training • Setup download of Australian weather data Upgrade ARGOS server to v 9. 0 Japan event Singapore visit 2

ARGOS setup at ARPANSA In progress 3

Weather data 4

Auto-forecast server • Auto-forecast allows users to have ‘scheduled’ ARGOS prognoses. Australian setup • Using ‘old’ auto-forecast method • Currently only implemented for Japan • Hope to have data on web-site by the end of the year • NPW ports • ANSTO reactor • Regional reactors In progress 5

Auto-forecast server • Japan • http: //www. arpansa. gov. au/modelling/news/mediareleases/japanadvisory_modelling. htm 6

Auto-forecast server • NPW • http: //www. arpansa. gov. au/modelling/news/mediareleases/NPW_modelling. htm 7

NPE 10 exercise (CTBTO) The aim of this new exercise is the continuation of the multi - technology approach started with the past NPE 09. Simulated release of radionuclides will be the trigger scenario of the NPE 10 exercise The following criteria have to be fulfilled for this event: - A reasonable number of phases from seismic stations. - The event magnitude (ML) is between 3. 0 and 4. 8. Assumptions: Single underground nuclear detonation, continuous leak of noble gas, radionuclide detections only from simulated release. Joint project with Geoscience Australia (GA). Radiological analysis – ARPANSA Seismic Analysis - GA 8

NPE 10 USP 75 USP 74 USP 72 CAP 17 RN 053 X X X X X Stations recording detections (first 6 days) Seismic events within PSR 20 10 ct 24 -O ct -O 23 ct -O 22 t Oc 21 - ct 0 -O The starting point of the assessment of NPE 10 exercise was the Data Fusion Bulletins posted on the IDC web-site. Table on right, shows which CTBTO stations recorded a xenon detection in the first 6 days. There were 39 individual seismic events consistently located within the PSR as identified by the PTS and ensemble modelling results, Figure on right. These events could be grouped by location: Gulf of California (24. 5, -109. 1) - 35 events between 20/10/10 to 22/10/10 Guatemala coast (14. 9, -92. 4) – 2 events on 21/10/10 Wyoming (44. 1, -105. 8) – 1 event on 23/10/10 Wyoming (43. 6, -110. 3) – 1 event on 24/10/10 Aleutian islands (51. 3, -167. 9) - 2 events 24/10/10 Aleutian islands (51. 4, -175. 2) – 1 event 23/10/10 Detection recorded (24 hour Collection Stop) 27/10 28/10 29/10 30/10 31/10 1/11 CTBTO detector station 20 Data from IDC: Seismic events that fall within Possible source region (PSR) Seismic events within PSR 9

NPE 10 - ARGOS Gulf of California (20/10 to 22/10) Wyoming (24/10) Wyoming (23/10) Hy-split trajectories 10

Singapore visit Visit to DSO in Singapore in August 2011. Presentations on uses of ARGOS in Australia, theory of RIMPUFF model. Potential for joint projects. 11

Current and future Australian ARGOS projects • Distribution of new virtual machine with ARGOS 9. 0 to Australian user group, ARGOS workshop/refresher training • Continue validation of ARGOS Dispersion Model against Australian NPW Reference Accident Model • Evaluation of Food-dose models, including AGRI-CP • Assessment of radiation measurement systems and network requirements for implementation of a Permanent Monitoring Station network • Standard procedures for output of modelling products • Evaluation/Implementation of ARGOS-web system 12

Upgrade ideas Better way to extract information about doses/rates at distances • Circle drawing tool • Maximum dose at distance, from circle (grid marking) • Mouse click to put markers on the screen • Summary box of various information, concentration, dose rate. Configured in database editor perhaps, like iso-curve function More ARGOS runs at once (ARGOS-web may do this) • Batching of runs, multiple release times • Multiple RIMPUFF installations on one PC 13

Upgrade ideas Select NWP area in prognosis setup, perhaps as a check box. Rather than as a pop-up box when you click Start. Possible integration of Bureau of Met. Hy-split model. Might be able to integrate to ARGOS like RIMPUFF, or Script request like other long-range models. Shape files attached to auto-forecast outputs. So they could be used by other GIS programs. Iso-curves on auto-forecast images. Better handling of other GRIB NWP data. Ability to use archived NOMADS data, better way to handle Bo. M NWP data, so different gribs could be used on same machine. 14

ARGOS in Australia ARGOS is maintained within Australia by ARPANSA, as part of emergency response and planning for radionuclide events. There is also an ARGOS user group consisting of other government agencies. Australian ARGOS User Group Federal: State (First Responders): International : 15