2010kw Current and Future Options Overnight Cost 10

$2010/kw

Current and Future Options, Overnight Cost $10 000 Central Station, Nuclear, Coal, Gas Nuclear Coal (unabated) Coal w/ccs Onshore Wind $7 500 Solar PV Utility PV $2010/kw Battery Equivalent $5 000 Gas w/Carbon Capture Efficiency Distributed Supply, Managed Demand $2 500 $0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

A PRAGMATIC, PROGRESSIVE APPROACH TO ENERGY JUSTICE Distributive Justice Principles and Practice Principles Use Availability Affordability Quality Extensions Measurement & Policy Devote attention surplus & least well-off 1 Balance fiscal viabilityb and hierarchy of needs 2, d Service not supply, f Extensity and intensity of use 5, h People deserve no less energy than the median household consumes 2, a Living wage level, c Rates should be no higher than the median and people should pay no more than 2 x median as a % of income e, 3 Ensure adequacy, reliability and timeliness, 4, g Recognize and promote movement up the hierarchy of needs, 6, j Attend to strong complementary goods, skills 7, k Responsibility Individual Households must take some responsibility for cost 8, l Social Externalities, 10, n Optimization, Robustness 11 Equity Intragenerational Primary goods, 13 Capacitiesp Some inequality if socially beneficial 14, t Intergenerational Sustainability Depletion, 16 environmental harm 17, u Steadily increasing share of cost recovery as income and usage rises 9, m Least-cost, 12 Conservationo All the way, q Hierarchy of uses, r reflect local needs (conformity, convenience, adequacy) s Open for all 15 Incentives to create recoverable/valuable resources, 18 renewable resources, 19, v Preserving resources, 20, w to the maximum extent consistent with technology that maximizes use of local resources benefit 21, x Transactional Due Process Technocracy & Exclusion 22 Information, 23 Subsidiarity, 24 Participatory governance 25, y Capitalist Challenges for Implementing Distributive Justice Effectiveness of Subsidies Dumb subsidies Confusion of means-ends, z leakage, aa Smart subsidies, ab, 26 Recognize relatively small sums needed when targeted to promote access and exaggeration of cost and impacts 27 adoption, Targeting with means testing, 28, ad Reflect value of externalities (positive and negative) 29, ae Monopoly bias Incumbent biasaf Competitive neutrality in funding of subsidies (Uniform tax rate for all potential suppliers, general revenue); Competition in supply to minimize cost (Reverse Auctions) Competition in demand to maximize utility (consumer sovereignty through Vouchers. Administration Chronic inefficiency, rigidity, corruption Adaptive, flexible, effective, quality control, monitoring & evaluation Market Structure Excess Cost: Failure to require least cost & over recovery Competition & regulation (IRP) to eliminate abuse of market power & unnecessary supply-side subsidies Centralization Concentration of wealth & power Promotion of decentralized alternatives: Employment of local resources, Diseconomies of scale Improving fit between supply & demand, Autonomy Inefficiency Waste, excess cost Promoting efficiency lowers bills, reduces subsidies, strengthens finance Efficiency in Cost Recovery Cost causers Misplaced subsidies Marginal cost, Capture economies of scale, Social allocation of common costs to maximize users, not usage do not bear cost favoring small users (equal benefit, equal burden, standalone cost rules at the top) Shared responsibility Consumer/subsidy, public/private, microfinance of amortized fixed cost

THE DECLINING COST OF SOLAR INPUTS

Cost of Lighting Per Lumen, 1800=1 10 9 8 7 6 5 1 st Industrial Revolution 4 0, 003 3 0, 002 0, 001 2 2 nd Industrial Revolution 0 1950 1 0 1700 2050 3 rd Industrial Revolution 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Refrigerator Electricity Consumption k. Wh per 1000 Cubic Feet 1000 R 2 = 0, 9099 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

DYNAMIC SYSTEM MANAGEMENT UTILIZING INFORMATION, COMMUNICATIONS & CONTROL TECHNOLIGIES DEMAND Efficiency Target peaks Aggressive demand response Manage water heating Smart controllers Rates Target fixed cost recovery Time of use Grid Management Expand balance area Improve forecasting Integrated power transactions Import/export SUPPLY Dispatchable Storage Solar thermal Utility strategic Distributed Storage Community and Individual Air conditioning & Water Electric vehicles Generation Geographic Diversity Technological Diversity Peak Targeted Solar Quick start/rapid ramp