2006 Reliability Study James Manning Bryan Guy May
2006 Reliability Study James Manning Bryan Guy May 12, 2006 05/02/06
Two Part Presentation • 2006 Reliability Study Scope – James Manning (NCEMC) • Preliminary 2006 Reliability Study Results – Bryan Guy (Progress Energy) 05/02/06 2
2006 Reliability Study Scope 05/02/06 3
Purpose of Study • Assess the PEC and Duke transmission systems’ reliability • Develop a single reliability transmission plan for North Carolina that ensures reliability of service in accordance with NERC, SERC, PEC and Duke requirements 05/02/06 4
The Process Steps • • • Assumptions Study Criteria Case Development Methodology Technical Analysis and Study Results Assessment and Problem Identification Solution Development Selection of Preferred Reliability Solutions Report on the Study Results 05/02/06 5
Assumptions • Study year is 2011 Summer and 2010/2011 Winter, if needed • Load Serving Entities (“LSEs”) have provided a dispatch order of their Designated Network Resources (“DNRs”) • Load growth assumptions are in accordance with each LSE’s practice • Generation, interchange and other assumptions have been coordinated between Participants as needed 05/02/06 6
Study Criteria • NERC reliability standards • SERC requirements • Duke and PEC company criteria 05/02/06 7
Case Development • The Base Case has been developed with detailed internal models for Duke and PEC • Duke and PEC have created their respective generation down cases from the common Base Case – including outaging key generators near the Duke/PEC interface • Additional cases will be developed to evaluate alternative resource supply options to meet load demand forecasts 05/02/06 8
Methodology • Power flow analyses will be performed to evaluate thermal and phase angle limits – Voltage, stability and short circuit studies may be performed if circumstances warrant • Duke and PEC have exchanged contingency and monitored element files so that each can test the impact of contingencies on the other’s transmission system 05/02/06 9
Technical Analysis and Study Results • Duke and PEC will report results throughout the study area based on: – Thermal loadings greater than 90% – Voltages limits – Post-contingency phase angle difference of Richmond-Newport 500 k. V line 05/02/06 10
Assessment and Problem Identification • Duke and PEC are each running their own assessments – Duke reliability criteria will be used for Duke’s transmission facilities – PEC reliability criteria will be used for PEC’s transmission facilities • Duke and PEC are documenting the reliability problems resulting from their assessments and reporting to PWG 05/02/06 11
Solution Development • The PWG will develop potential solution alternatives to the identified reliability problems • Duke and PEC will test the solution alternatives • Duke and PEC will develop rough, planning level cost estimates and construction schedules for the solution alternatives 05/02/06 12
Selection of Preferred Solutions • The PWG will compare alternatives and select the preferred solution alternatives while balancing costs, benefits, and risks • The PWG will recommend a preferred set of transmission improvements that provide a reliable and cost effective transmission solution to meet customers’ needs while prudently managing the associated risks 05/02/06 13
Report on the Final Study Results • The PWG will compile all the study results and prepare a recommended final Collaborative Plan for the OSC review and approval • Final report would include: – A comprehensive summary of all the study activities; – A summary of all of the identified problems; and – The recommended transmission improvements, including estimates of costs and construction schedule. 05/02/06 14
Preliminary Results from our first NCTPC Study 2011 Summer 05/02/06 15
Preliminary 2006 Study Results • Enhanced Transmission Access – Received no requests from the TAG • Reliability Study process – Focus on reliability – Evaluate impact of resource supply options to meet load demand forecasts 05/02/06 16
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • First studies of the year using updated cases • Opportunity to assess current plans • Duke and PEC have performed screens • Assessments were Coordinated • Combined detailed model • Tested impact of opposing system transmission and generation outages • Improved generation dispatch assumptions • Results shared & discussed at PWG meeting 05/02/06 17
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • Nothing new or imminent was found • Projects addressing reliability issues 05/02/06 18
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • PEC & Duke 05/02/06 19
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • PEC – May establish one new project – Three items to be monitored 05/02/06 20
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • PEC – Falls 230/115 k. V Transformer • New project for a second transformer about 2013 – Franklinton 115 k. V capacitor • Local load serving issue • Possible Wake Forest area capacitor in 2011 • Not a long lead-time item 05/02/06 21
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • PEC – Falls-Henderson 115 k. V Lines • Local load serving issue • Monitor loading on 115 k. V lines • Identified possible operating procedure for use in 2013 – Laurinburg 230/115 k. V Transformers • Reduced loading on facilities • Possible 2 year delay of current project to install larger transformers from 2012 to 2014 05/02/06 22
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • Richmond – Newport 500 k. V Line – 2011 study confirms PEC import limitations – Could become an issue before the end of the planning horizon – PWG will investigate solutions, cost and scheduling 05/02/06 23
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • Duke – No new facilities were identified by the study – Three projects previously identified continue to be monitored (2011 and beyond) 05/02/06 24
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • Duke – London Creek 230 k. V Line (Riverview – Peach Valley 230 k. V Line) • Internal screens indicate that bundling of this line will be required in the 2012 timeframe. The PWG study indicates upgrade will be necessary around 2016. • The timing is impacted by south-to-north flow across the Duke control area. 05/02/06 25
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • Duke – Antioch 500/230 k. V Transformer Banks (2) • Internal screens show similar timing for an upgrade project. • Increased import from the north accelerates timing. • PWG study indicates additional transformer capacity needed around 2014. 05/02/06 26
Preliminary Reliability Study Results • Duke – Parkwood 500/230 k. V Transformer Banks (2) • Internal screens show the need for additional transformer capacity around 2019 to 2022. • PWG study indicates 2018 in the base screen. • Added outage of a large PEC Roxboro unit shows need for project advancement of 3 -4 years to 2015. 05/02/06 27
Where Are We Now ? – Assess the impact of resource supply options • Scenarios provided via Participant from… – NCMPA 1, NCEMPA, FPWC, NCEMC, Waynesville, Tri. Towns, Forest City/Dallas, Concord • Provides Participants information for planning transmission needs • Obtain transmission service via OASIS 05/02/06 28
Potential Alternative Resource Options for Study Preliminary Study Results Alternative Source Sink PJM (AEP) Sink Net Requests Test Level Duke 473 600 SOCO Duke 564 600 TVA Duke 464 600 SCEG Duke 464 600 SC Duke 464 600 CPLE Duke 464 600 PJM (AEP) CPLE 535 600 PJM (VP) CPLE 535 600 SCEG CPLE 600 SC CPLE 500 600 DUKE CPLE 500 600 PJM (AEP/AEP) Duke CPLE 1, 008 600 / 600 PJM (AEP/VP) Duke CPLE 1, 008 600 / 600 CPLW 20 20 PJM (AEP) 05/02/06 29
Summary • Confirms PEC and Duke transmission plan – No surprises, nothing new, nothing imminent – Adjustments • PWG will identify possible solutions to PEC’s import limitation • PWG will assess impact of various resource supply options for LSEs 05/02/06 30
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