17 th April 2009 BSA Conference Cardiff SOCIAL

17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff SOCIAL CHANGE: THE 1975 -1989 BIRTH COHORT: EVIDENCE FROM THE BHPS BSA Conference Cardiff 17 th April 2009 Susan Murray, University of Stirling

Contextual background Growing up in the 1990 s Changes in the early 21 st century Persistent inequality Intragenerational movement Intergenerational movement 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

21 st century transitions ‘Sociologists of youth are generally in agreement that the background against which young people grew up in the closing decades of the twentieth century was transformed, and is now radically different from earlier decades’ (Gayle, Lambert, Murray forthcoming) 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Characteristics of unweighted sample of rising 16 s Gender n % Male 1193 53. 33 Female 1044 46. 67 White (UK) 2043 91. 33 Black-Caribbean/ Black-other 22 0. 98 Black-African 12 0. 54 Indian 31 1. 39 Pakistani/ Bangladeshi 23 1. 03 Other 54 2. 41 Missing 52 2. 32 Any GCSEs at 16 (A-C) 1388 62. 05 Any GCSEs at 16 (D-G) 1320 59. 01 GCSEs 5+ at 16 (A-C) 1215 54. 31 Ethnicity Qualifications Source: BHPS waves 1 -16 rising 16 s 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Constant 3. 06(0. 20) 2. 68(0. 21) 2. 78(0. 22) 4. 33(0. 34) 4. 89(0. 10) 3. 59(0. 22) 4. 34(0. 36) 4. 55 (0. 35) 4. 56(0. 35) Gender (Girls) - 0. 97(0. 19) 1. 03(0. 19) 0. 95(0. 19) - - 0. 94(0. 19) 0. 90(0. 19) 0. 89(0. 19) Black Carib/ Black-other - - - -1. 04 (1. 83) Black African - - - -0. 30 (1. 38) Indian - - - - 0. 96 (0. 84) Pakistani/Bangladeshi - - - - 0. 21 (1. 16) Other minority - - - -0. 19 (0. 62) Family stratification(Cam Scale) MRJ 0. 04 (0. 01) 0. 03 (0. 01) - 0. 04 (0. 01) 0. 02 (0. 01) - Tenure (Social renters) - - -2. 53 (0. 31) -1. 91 (0. 32) -1. 57 (0. 32) -1. 51 (0. 32) Mum graduate - - 1. 03 (0. 34) - - - 0. 49 (0. 36) - - Dad graduate - - 0. 93 (0. 35) - - - 0. 53 (0. 38) - - Mum qualified - -0. 76 (0. 22) - - -0. 81 (0. 22) -0. 95 (0. 20) Dad qualified - -1. 05 (0. 20) - - -0. 47 (0. 24) -0. 63 (0. 22) Gender*class interaction - - - - 0. 01 (0. 003) Adj R 2 0. 047 0. 063 0. 074 0. 086 0. 042 0. 069 0. 101 0. 098 N 1500 1500 1500 Ethnicity Parent’s education 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Multiple regression models for number of A*-C GCSEs comparing employment status for the Registrar General Social Classification Employment Status Family Class Model 1 Current Managerial/Technical -. 7887* Skilled non-manual -. 9418* skilled manual -1. 854*** partly skilled manual -2. 623*** unskilled -2. 267** Most Recent Model 2 Managerial/Technical -1. 095** Skilled non-manual -1. 378*** skilled manual -2. 209*** partly skilled manual -2. 876*** unskilled -2. 453** Constant 5. 901*** 6. 239*** N 1471 r 2 0. 03961 0. 04642 r 2_a 0. 03633 0. 04316 -4038 -4033 8120 8109 Logliklihood bic Source: BHPS waves 1 -16; subsample of the ‘rising 16 s’. 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Mean number of A*-C GCSE grades per school leaving year (with confidence intervals) 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Quasi Variance for school year 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Figures for pupils gaining 5+ A*-C GCSE grades Year on year rising 16 results compared with national figures All pupils Rising 16 s % National Figures % 1991 46. 0(36 -56) 36. 8 1992 62. 3(55 -70) 38. 3 1993 48. 7(42 -56) 41. 2 1994 63. 8(56 -72) 43. 3 1995 43. 1(35 -51) 43. 5 1996 55. 4(48 -63) 44. 5 1997 52. 4(44 -60) 45. 1 1998 50. 5(41 -60) 46. 3 1999 59. 1(52 -66) 47. 9 2000 56. 3(49 -63) 49. 2 2001 61. 3(55 -68) 50. 0 2002 59. 1(52 -66) 51. 6 2003 67. 1(60 -74) 52. 9 2004 47. 6(41 -54) 53. 7 2005 53. 0(46 -60) 56. 3 Source: BHPS waves 1 -16; 95% CI around proportion in brackets Source: http: //www. bstubbs. co. uk/5 a-c. htm 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Logit 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Process To move away from the common outcomes of destination and focus on process, direction and the tracks and trajectories of young people early on in their careers. 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Outcome variables Eligibility for HE/FE Participation in post-16 education Early labour market outcomes (first, current, last) Combination of labour market outcomes and educational attainment Predicted trajectories 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Back to the future: Youth Panel Plans not to stay in education (n) Plans to stay in education(n) 1995 33 74 107 1996 32 164 1997 25 98 123 1998 31 73 104 1999 24 114 138 2000 26 93 119 2001 31 125 156 2002 16 112 128 2003 14 106 120 2004 30 131 161 2005 38 103 141 300 1, 161 1, 461 School year Total (n) 17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff

Rising 16 s: five years on (%) Status at 21 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Employed 60. 9 50. 7 48. 6 49. 2 58. 0 49. 3 47. 1 56. 7 48. 1 48. 9 39. 3 48. 6 Unemploye d 7. 8 6. 5 5. 0 9. 5 3. 4 12. 5 4. 2 11. 1 3. 8 5. 3 14. 1 8. 5 Fulltime student 28. 2 37. 0 41. 4 34. 9 31. 9 34. 6 44. 5 25. 6 43. 1 38. 9 33. 3 37. 3 Other 3. 2 5. 8 5. 0 6. 4 6. 7 3. 7 4. 2 6. 7 5. 0 6. 9 13. 3 5. 6 Total 100 100 100

17 th April 2009, BSA Conference Cardiff RESEARCH FUNDED BY THE ESRC Many thanks.