16122016 Ao A Transport Lunch Seminar Commercial aircraft

16/12/2016 Ao. A Transport Lunch Seminar Commercial aircraft operation engine realibility & safety Olivier Petit & Henrik Ekstrand Applied Mechanics department, fluid mechanics division

Background There is a market pull to fly further and further away. Average of 6 000 – 10 000 planes in the sky at any time. (expected 5% per year increase for the coming 10 years) Need for regulations to avoid accidents, and manage take-off and landings. Creation of highways in the sky to avoid collision. 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 2

Aviation safety A wide topic where interaction typically occurs between all stakeholders (e. g. Airspace Users (AUs), Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs), Airport Operators etc. ). Airspace Users typically has great redundancy in various systems (e. g. three hydraulic systems). Communication, Navigation & Surveillance (CNS). ANSPs and AUs are using various surveillance systems for traffic sequencing and separation, including airborne anti collision systems such as the Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). Satellite navigation used as primary navigation source associated with very high accuracy. Communication is established all around the world via ground stations or Sat. Com. 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 3

1953 data from ICAO(International Civil Aviation Organisation) Early airplanes were powered by piston engine. The reliability of piston engine at the time was rather poor. There is a close correlation between engine failure and engine power (see left picture). As a consequence, a 60 minute rule was established In 1953: to always operate an aircraft within 100 NM from an adequate airport (100 NM ≈ 60 min flying with one engine inoperative). 1 NM (Nautical Mile=1. 852 km) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8. 94 Failure probability per 10 000 hours for 6 000 HP Failure probability per 10 000 hours Probability of failure for piston engines vs. power at a constant engine speed of 1 000 rpm. 6. 84 4. 97 3. 36 2. 03 1 1000 22/11/2020 1500 2000 2500 3000 Engine horsepower 3500 16 13. 68 14 12 10 10. 08 8. 12 8 6 4 2 0 1500 2000 3000 Failure probabilities 6 000 HP installed Ao. A Transport Seminar 4

Reliability of jet engines since the 1950 s and onwards The introduction of jet engines significantly enhanced the reliability and safety of propulsion systems. The failure probability of a jet engine in neither affected by the thrust nor by the size of the engine. In today’s operation it is possible to operate > 180 minutes from an adequate airport with a twin engine aircraft (based on single engine operation). Failure rate per 1000 hours 0. 012 0. 01 0. 008 0. 006 0. 004 0. 002 0 22 -30 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 37 -40 48 -50 50 -60 65 -70+ Engine thrust (kilo Pounds) 5

ETOPS certification: Extended-range Twin engine OPeration. S ETOPS certification operational since 1985 (ETOPS-90, ETOPS-120) ETOPS definition: extended range operations are those flights conducted over a route that contain a point further than one hour flying time at the approved one-engine inoperative cruise speed (under standard conditions in still air) from an adequate airport. Combined safety measure, EROPS: En Route Alternate Airports. It denotes that this airport is adequate for use as an ETOPS alternate (weather, runway length, wide and strength…). Military airports are available as En Route Alternate. 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar ETOPS certification representation 6

Operational impact 120 min operation 180 min operation Direct route = 4350 NM 22/11/2020 60 min rule = 5700 NM Ao. A Transport Seminar 180 min rule = 4350 NM 7

Engine certification There are hundreds of tests that need to be performed for certification of a turbine engine. Amongst them are: Maximum static thrust tests Vibration tests Endurance tests Water ingestion test Hail ingestion test Ice cloud test Bird strike test 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 8

Engine certification: electronic code of federal regulations: http: //www. ecfr. gov/cgi-bin/text-idx? rgn=div 5&node=14: 1. 0. 1. 3. 16#_top 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 9

Engine certification: electronic code of federal regulations: http: //www. ecfr. gov/cgi-bin/text-idx? rgn=div 5&node=14: 1. 0. 1. 3. 16#_top 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 10

Aviation statistics You can travel 7 times to the moon or 14 000 times around the globe before experiencing an emergency landing to En Route Alternate Airports. There were four accidents resulting in passenger fatalities in 2015, all of which involved turboprop aircraft, with 136 fatalities. This compares with an average of 17. 6 fatal accidents and 504 fatalities per year in the previous five-year period (2010 -2014). IATA: International Air Transport Association, trade association for the world’ airlines Boeing Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Aircraft Accidents 1959 -2015 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 11

Thank you for your attention! 22/11/2020 Ao. A Transport Seminar 12