13 6 THEORETICALEXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Objective Students will learn

13. 6 THEORETICAL/EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY Objective: Students will learn how to find simple probability. They will also learn the difference between theoretical and experimental probability.

INFO. Outcomes: possible results Random: outcome equally likely Probability: favorable total outcomes Theoretical Prob: what should happen Experimental Prob: what actually happens; repeated trials. Odds in favor: favorable unfavorable Odds against: unfavorable

PROBABILITY PROBLEMS I have a cube find the probability of the following. Deck of cards. P(jack) P(1) P(2 or 5) P(2 or odd) P(clubs)

PROBABILITY PROBLEMS P(2) P(2 or red) P(green or blue) 7 P(even) 6 P(#>5) P(#<3) 8 1 5 4 2 3

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY THEN COMPARE TO THEORETICAL outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6 frequenc y

PREDICT Predict how many like fish from 1000. Predict how many like dogs from 600. Fish Birds 5% 12% Predict how many like cats/dogs (300). Hamster s 13% Predict how many likes hamsters (300). Cat s 20 % Predict how many like birds/fish 300. Dog s 50%

INFORMATION Factorial: product of integers from n to 1 0! = 1 Evaluate the factorial. 2! 3!

EVALUATE THE FACTORIALS 5! 6! 7! 4! 8! 10! 3! 0!

NOTES Tree Diagram: uses branching to list choices. Counting Principle: repeated multiplication

USE THE TREE DIAGRAM Shirts: red, white Pants: jeans, shorts Feet: socks, shoes Draw a pictures with three sizes (sm, med, lg), with four different shapes (square, rectangle, triangle, circle).

USE THE TREE DIAGRAM Glasses: plastic and metal Frames: rectangular, oval, round. Colors: red, yellow, black Frames: plastic, wood Shape: circular, square

USE COUNTING PRINCIPLE 3 shirts, 5 pants, 2 shoes, 10 hats Month picked and a coin flipped. Coin, dice, cards (52) Letter picked and a single digit picked

USE COUNTING PRINCIPLE 5 shirts, 20 pants, 3 shoes, 10 hats Coin, dice, letter(26)

PROBABILITY 4 character password: 1 st – digit, 2 nd – letter, 3 rd – digit not 2, 4 th letter. Prob. Get first try? Spinner has 10 equal spaces. Probability you land on a 2 then on a 10?

PROBABILITY 3 character password: 1 st – digit not 7 or 3, 2 nd – letter, 3 rd – digit not 2, 5, 9 3 types bread: wheat, rye, white. 2 types meat: turkey, ham 3 types cheese: american, pepperjack, provolone. What’s prob. I get a wheat, turkey, pepperjack sandwich.

WRAP UP Question / comments Hw: workbook pg. 189