10 5 Experimental Probability Warm Up Part I

10 -5 Experimental Probability Warm Up: Part I Write the equivalent percent. 1. 30% 2. 3. 20% 4. 25% 16% Write the equivalent fraction. 5. 50% 6. 10% 7. 40% 8. 35% Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Holt Algebra 11

10 -5 Experimental Probability An experiment is an activity involving chance. Each repetition or observation of an experiment is a trial, and each possible result is an outcome. The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes. Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Example 1: Identifying Sample Spaces and Outcomes Identify the sample space and the outcome shown for each experiment. A. Rolling a number cube Sample space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Outcome shown: 4 B. Spinning a spinner Sample space: {red, green, orange, purple} Outcome shown: green Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability An event is an outcome or set of outcomes in an experiment. Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. Probabilities are written as fractions or decimals from 0 to 1, or as percents from 0% to 100%. Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Impossible As likely as not Unlikely 0% Events with a probability of 0% never happen. Holt Algebra 1 Certain Likely 50% Events with a probability of 50% have the same chance of happening as not. 100% Events with a probability of 100% always happen.

10 -5 Experimental Probability Example 2: Estimating the Likelihood of an Event Write impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain to describe each event. A. A shoe selected from a pair of shoes fits the right foot. as likely as not B. Katrina correctly guesses the last digit of a phone number. unlikely C. Max pulls a green marble from a bag of all green marbles. certain D. A randomly selected month contains the letter R. likely Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Check It Out! Example 2 Write impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain to describe the event: Anthony rolls a number less than 7 on a standard number cube. The highest number on a standard number cube is 6. Thus it is certain the number will be less than 7. Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability The experimental probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times the event occurs to the number of trials. The more trials performed, the more accurate the estimate will be. Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Example 3 A: Finding Experimental Probability An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of the event. Spinner lands on orange Holt Algebra 1 Outcome Frequency Green 15 Orange 10 Purple 8 Pink 7

10 -5 Experimental Probability Check It Out! Example 3 a An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of each event. Spinner lands on red Holt Algebra 1 Outcome Frequency Red 7 Blue 8 Green 5

10 -5 Experimental Probability A prediction is an estimate or guess about something that has not yet happened. Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Example 4 A: Quality Control Application A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498 have no defects. What is the experimental probability that a stroller chosen at random has no defects? Find the experimental probability that a stroller has no defects. = 99. 6% The experimental probability that a stroller has no defects is 99. 6%. Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Example 4 B: Manufacturing Application A manufacturer inspects 500 strollers and finds that 498 have no defects. The manufacturer shipped 3500 strollers to a distribution center. Predict the number of strollers that are likely to have no defects. Find 99. 6% of 3500. 0. 996(3500) = 3486 The prediction is that 3486 strollers will have no defects. Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability P 716 #2 -10 all with a partner Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Lesson Quiz: Part I 1. Identify the sample space and the outcome shown for selecting a marble. Sample space: {red, green, yellow} Outcome shown: red Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Lesson Quiz: Part II 2. An experiment consists of spinning a spinner. Use the results in the table to find the experimental probability of landing on blue. Outcome Frequency Red 9 Blue 6 Yellow 5 Holt Algebra 1

10 -5 Experimental Probability Lesson Quiz: Part III 3. The neighbors’ dog barked at Tana the last 4 out of 5 times she walked by their house. a. What is the experimental probability that the dog barks at Tana when she walks past the house? 80% b. Predict the number of times the dog will bark at Tana if she walks past the house 45 times. 36 Holt Algebra 1