1 WFP Bangladesh Vulnerability Analysis Mapping Food Security

1 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Food Security Assessment in Bangladesh Issues and Implications for Mapping Food Insecurity and Vulnerability

2 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Programme: 1. Geographic targeting 2. Data sources for food security analysis and mapping 3. VAM’s strategy for a new set of targeting maps 4. Discussion

3 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Geographic targeting • WFP resources to be concentrated in areas identified through VAM assessments of food insecurity and vulnerability. • Considerable variation in food consumption between districts. (E. g. range from 2470 k. Cal in Dinajpur to 1819 K. Cal. in Bagerhat) • Explained by regional difference in poverty • “Poor areas are not just poor because poor households concentrate in these areas” (WB) • Geographical indicators can provide indication where to find a concentration of higher levels of poverty. (land productivity, electricity, infrastructure, distance to major markets etc. )

4 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping • One of the most widely used maps for targeting of development programmes • Four relative categories of food insecurity: very high, moderate, low • Composite index of 7 proxy indicators: • • incidence of natural disasters Food grain deficit/surplus Agricultural wage rate Households not owning land Unemployed persons Female-headed households Literate women • Scope for improvement: • Type of indicators used • Double counting • Availability of new data

5 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping • Based on HES 1995/96 data • 7 indicators: • Income and assets: • per capita income from own agricultural production • Land owned • Food intake: • Daily calorie intake • Percentage of calories from cereal (Q) • Expenditure: • Per capita expenditure • Share of expenditure on food • Limitations: • Additional outcome indicators • rational for targeting or not targeting certain areas is not clear • level of targeting at cluster level

6 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Related mapping efforts: • World Bank’s Poverty targeting exercise (HES 1995 -96) • • NW - Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari, Panchagarh North – Jamalpur, Mymensingh, Sherpur, Tangail. South of Dhaka – Faridpur, Gopalganj, Madaripur, Rajbari, Shariatpur Barisal Division • Bangladesh human development report • Jamalpur, Sherpur, Kusthia • Unicef’s child risk measure • Sunamganj, Bhola • IRRI’s study into the geographical distribution of poverty and food security

Poverty incidence based on regression model BANGLADESH 7 Cartographic Model Agricultural labor WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Non-Farm HH Arable land Total literacy R. electrification Modern rice Rainfall Poverty index (%) > 40 High poverty 20 -40 Moderate < 20 Low poverty Map source: IRRI Dhaka, BARC Data source: BBS, BIDS. IRRI-Dhaka Map produced by. E. C. Godilano, M. L Bose SSD IRRI-GIS/IP lab : 14 Oct. 2000

8 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Data sources for food security analysis and mapping • Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2000 • Poverty Monitoring Survey, May 1999 • Child Nutrition Survey, 2000 • Demographic and Health survey, 1999 -2000 • Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, 2000 • Nutrition Surveillance Project, HKI/IPHN • Census of population, 2001 • Census of slum areas and floating populations, 1997 • Census of Agricultural, 1996

9 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping VAM’s strategy for a new set of targeting maps. Considerations: • Level of targeting • Incidence of chronic food insecurity, but … • Nature of the development programme • Accessibility and cost-effectiveness • Presence of partner capabilities • Political and security considerations • Geographic targeting vs beneficiary targeting (access to land, gender, source of income)

10 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping (A) Targeting maps for VGD & IFS Approach 1 – Mapping of food security indicators Poverty/lack of sufficient purchasing power is main obstacle to achieving food security: • 44 percent falls below the absolute poverty line (2, 122 K. Cal/day) • 20 percent (25 million people) consume less then 1, 805 k. Cal/day • 1 st tier - Based on indicators of extreme poverty (food intake, income, expenditure, assets and nutrition) 2 nd tier – Based on household (e. g. quality of housing, source of income, landownership, literacy, etc. ) and area characteristics (e. g. rural electricity, land-use, infrastructure etc. ) • Ranking of areas based on a combination of methods (scoring, indices, principle component)

11 Rural Poverty by greater district WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping

12 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping

13 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Approach 2 – Small area estimation Steps: 1. Regression model for each region (urban + rural) using survey data 2. Estimate small area indicators of food insecurity by substituting survey data for census data 3. Ranking of areas based on level of food insecurity Survey data Census data Calorie intake Literacy Landownership Stunting/underwe Sanitation ight facilities Landownership Employment Sanitation facilities Household size Housing material Enrolment … Expenditure on food … … …

14 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Analysis of the differences between approach 1 and 2: • Compare and validate different approaches and outcomes • Identify the underlying factors that were most significant in explaining the incidence of food insecurity • Overlay food insecurity maps with area resource maps (e. g. differences in operational costs and accessibility, partners presence and capacity) for additional insight into where to target WFP’s development programmes.

15 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping (B) Targeting maps School Feeding Programme Urban and rural targeting maps based on: • Food Insecurity and Nutrition (food consumption, anthropometric data) • Primary education (no. schools, enrolment, attendance, teacher/pupil ratio, drop-out. • Local partners capabilities

16 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Rural targeting Source: Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey, 2000

17 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Urban targeting • HIES 2000, poverty in urban areas increased with 7. 2 percent • Nutritional status of children living in urban slum areas is worse than in rural areas (stunting (54. 1 – 52. 9, Underweight (72. 6 – 59. 3), CNS 1995/96 • Literacy rate in urban slums (14. 7) is more than half the national rate found in the 1991 population census (32. 4) • HKI. Wide differences in living conditions between slums within a city. Percentage of underweight mothers ranging from 10 percent in one slum to 45 percent in another in August 2000. • Map based on proxy indicators obtained from Census of slum areas, 1997 (slum characteristics, literacy, employment, housing, toilet facilities, source of drinking water, land ownership, electricity). • Mapping of partner presence and capabilities

18 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping (C) Vulnerability maps for emergency operations • OFDA/CRED International disaster database registered 170 events during the period 1975 -2000 Vulnerability map based on: • Identification of the most physically affected thanas based on historical disaster data (DMB & CARE&OFDA/CRED) • Coping potential as indicated by level of poverty • Existing WFP and partner programmes in these areas • Scenario maps, estimate likely impact on household access to food. • Vulnerability = F(fs, exposure to shocks, ability to cope)

19 WFP Bangladesh - Vulnerability Analysis & Mapping Thank you…!