1 RESILIENCE 2 0 Computeraided disaster management Gerhard

1 RESILIENCE 2. 0: Computer-aided disaster management Gerhard Chroust Johannes Kepler University Linz Austria, gerhard. chroust@jku. at Georg Aumayr Johanniter Österreich, Ausbildung – Forschung georg. aumayr@johanniter. at © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

3 What is a disaster? l hazard … dangerous condition or event l vulnerability … likeliness to be injured l capacity … (internal) resources to withstand consequences! © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

4 What is a disaster? the functionalistic or event based perspective: . . . a natural or man-made hazard taking effect. . . of substantial extent causing significant physical damage or destruction, loss of life, or drastic change to the natural environment. . the social constructionism: . . . are social constructions. . . does not exist sui generis, . . . product of social definition: "disasters are in the eye of the beholders". the vulnerability perspective: . . . consider vulnerability of the built environment and the social vulnerability of exposed populations Disaster = … external help needed © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

5 Disaster for whom? l depends on viewpoint! l psychology, environment, l who benefits who loses? what‘s wrong with you? I caught the homo sapiens virus!!! Don‘t worry, within 150. 000 years it goes away! © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

6 Classes of Disasters © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

7 Exernal hazards l different types of attacks l type – strength – risk l small attacks at a critical point = big disturbance © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

8 Look into the future! great! nothing serious happened yet! Preparation!!! © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

9 Disaster - Phases © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

10 Basic reactions active passive FLIGHT, RUN AWAY FREEZE IGNORE/DENY AVOID preparation! SUBMIT / SUSTAIN / ENDURE © G. Chroust 2015 FIGHT, INTERVENE Resilience-Chengdu 2015

11 When it happens… impact © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

12 Reaction types l Fragility --- it breaks! l Robustness: undisturbed by certain defined attacks l Fault tolerance : against defined types of attack! l Resilience: the capacity of a. . . system to bounce back to dynamic stability after a disturbance l Antifragility: the capacity of a systems that increase its resilience or robustness as a result of mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures. (this leads to improvemements! and applicability to new situations) © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

13 Resilience of what? What is the system boundary? © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

14 System Complexity Types Problem! S: specification of the problem => solution P: based on a view of the problem => find a solution E: like P, but the solution will change the environment, i. e. the problem space Solution ? ? W (wicked): like E, but ill-defined problem and success, systemic, needs basic solution approach H (hyperwicked): like W but additionally under time- pressure © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

15 Recognition? Types of disaster behaviour with and without warning? slow / fast onset ? when do we recognize it ? © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

16 Key Timings l Tident … Time of identification of hazard l Trec … Time of recognition of (expected) disaster l Texp … Time of expected (EARLIEST) impact l tlead … time for preparation = Texp - Trec l talarm … warning time = Texp - NOW l tset-up. . . time needed to set-up intervention ressources © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

17 Resilience 2. 0 – a new paradigm Resilience 2. 0 : The capability of a system to exhibit resilience by the integrated, effective and efficient use of Information and Communication Technologies through all phases of disaster management © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

18 Resilience 2. 0 -> COMPUTER l higher speed – information processing and communication l better access to information l more processing power l amount of processing, granularity and precision of information, storage size l higher mobility l l smart phone, internet, WLAN new tools and methods l virtual reality, simulation, GPS, … © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

19 Resources © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

20 Computer Support l l l l Big Data, analysis Computer animation, Simulation Crowd Sourcing Crowd Tasking Early Warning Systems Electronic opinion surveys Geoposition System (GPS), Google Earth, satellite photography Multivariate Statistics Process Management Tools Project Management Tools Robotics, autonomous vehicles, tele-guidance, tele-cooperation Sensor technology Social Media Virtual Reality/ Mixed reality © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

21 Training, Augmented Reality, Robots, Communication Robot drone communication Training social media Augmented Reality information processing © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

22 Resilience 2. 0 and computers 1: Preparedness © G. Chroust 2015 2: Alert/ Anticipation Disas ter Im pa ct 3: Respons e/ Interventi on 4: Restoration 5: post-mortem analysis, Resilience-Chengdu 2015

23 Communication l Communication with First Responders and feedback l data aggregation and situational analysis l public information and warning l Crowd sourcing of status information © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

24 Extended Horizon l look into the past: historical information l look into the future : simulation, prediction l look into the details: small indicative changes (automatic measuring, detection, signalling) l look to the side: larger system boundary © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

25 ICT : added problems l Performance Pressure : pressure/preemption of tasks, l ICT infrastructure : damages, no power, weak WLAN l Communication : equipment damaged, destroyed l Overloading: WLAN, social media l Press Media pressure: “bad news are good news l professionals : incapacitated / not available l volunteers : not sufficiently trained © G. Chroust 2015 ” Resilience-Chengdu 2015

26 Summary l resilience (or antifragility!) highly desirable l different tools and support in different phases l ICT very helpful, but a risk factor in itself l new applications are appearing Resilience 2. 0 is here to stay and to be improved! © G. Chroust 2015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015

27 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Gerhard Chroust, Georg Aumayr, gerhard. chroust@jku. at, georg aumayr@johanniter. at © G. Chroust july 20052015 Resilience-Chengdu 2015 27