1 Problem Solving and Decision Making Skills Achala

1 Problem Solving and Decision Making Skills Achala Dahal/ Nabin Chapagain

Session Outline 2 Meaning of Problem/Decision / Decision Making Styles and Types of Decision Making Rational decision making process Models of Decision making Ethical dilemma and ethical decision making Traps in decision making

Forethought 3 Some are easy like… Some are difficult like…

Lets begin…. 4

A Month of Mangsir 5

How a decision matter ? 7 Cable Car Rope way

Importance of Decision Making 8 A key role of an officer Whatever an officer does, he does through making decisions No organisations can be run without making decisions Carries long-term implications. Organisations grow or fail as a result of decisions made by its decision makers. The wellbeing of an organisation depends almost entirely on the quality of its decisions.

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Problem 10 “In a day, when you don’t come across any problems- you can be sure that you are

Problem Solving 11 If a problem is a gap between two states, then problem solving is 'the process of closing that gap, i. e. changing the current state into the desired one. '

12 A decision is one when there are different things you can do and you pick one of them.

Decision 13 “A Decision is a Judgment. ” - Peter Drucker A decision is a Choice between or among various alternatives. -

Decision making Combination of mental, physical and behavioral processes related to: �Rationale �Resources �Results �Resolution

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Decision Making 17 … is the selection of one behaviour alternative from two or more possible alternatives in relation to a problem / situation. – Terry … is the process of examining possible options, comparing them and choosing a course of action. … is the study of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values and preferences of the decision-maker. When we make a decision, we want to choose the one/s that fit us best.

Decision Making Decision making is a cognitive process leading to the selection of a course of action among the alternatives, and enabling to act for producing desired results. Decision making is a series of logical steps to reach at the agreement for moving forward. Systematic response to a problem situation or forward moving through intelligence, understanding, analysis, rational logical selection, preparedness for implementation.

19 Krishna Seekh - Impact of decision making in our lives. mp 4 Summary ?

20 Decision making- essence of managerial function

21 Decision making- essence of managerial function

Decisions in Planning What are the organization’s long term goals? What strategies best achieve these objectives? What should the organization’s short term objectives be? How difficult should individual goals be?

Decisions in Organizing How many employees should I have report directly to me? How much centralization should there be in the organization? How should jobs be designed? When should the organization implement a different structure?

Decisions in Leading How do I handle employees who appear to be low in motivation? What is the most effective leadership style in a given situation? How will a specific change affect worker productivity? When is the right time to stimulate conflict?

Decisions in Controlling What activities in the organization need to be controlled? How should those activities be controlled? When is a performance deviation significant? What type of management information system should the organization have?

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Factors Influencing Decision Making Cognitive and personal biases Emotional bias Skills and competencies Situational factors Instrumental factors Technological factors Cultural factors

28 Exercise – Assessment – How good are your decision making.

Score Comment 18 -42 29 43 -66 67 -90 your decision-making hasn't fully matured. you aren't objective enough, and you rely too much on luck, instinct or timing to make reliable decisions. start to improve your decision-making skills by focusing more on the process that leads to the decision, rather than on the decision itself. with a solid process, you can face any decision with confidence. we'll show you how. your decision-making process is ok. you have a good understanding of the basics, but now you need to improve your process and be more proactive. concentrate on finding lots of options and discovering as many risks and consequences as you can. the better your analysis, the better your decision will be in the long term. focus specifically on the areas where you lost points, and develop a system that will work for you across a wide variety of situations. you have an excellent approach to decision-making! you know how to set up the process and generate lots of potential solutions. from there, you analyze the options carefully, and you make the best decisions possible based on what you know. as you gain more and more experience, use that information to evaluate your decisions, and continue to build on your decision-making success. think about the areas where you lost points, and decide how you can include those areas in your process.

Classification of Decisions 30 1. Personal decisions to achieve own 2. Organisational decisions to fulfill the objectives. obligations of own position in the organisation.

Organizational Decisions 31 Ill-structured Type of Problem Well-structured Nonprogrammed Decisions Programmed Decisions Top Level in Organization Bottom Programmed Decision �A decision that is repetitive and routine and can be made by using a definite, systematic procedure. Non-programmed Decision �A decision that is unique and novel.

Levels of decision making 32

Decision Making Style Low Tolerance for ambiguity High Analytic Conceptu al Directive Behavior al Way of thinking Rational Intuitive

Decision making styles 34

Models of decision making DM Models Rational 35 Use This Model When: Information on alternatives can be gathered and quantified Decisions are important You are trying to maximize your outcome. Bounded ØThe minimum criteria are clear. rationality ØYou do not have or you are not willing to invest much time to make the decision. Ø Ø Ø

Models of decision making DM Models Intuitive 36 Use This Model When: Goals are unclear. There is time pressure and analysis paralysis would be costly. You have experience with the problem. Ø Solutions to the problem are not clear. Ø New solutions need to be generated. Ø Ø Ø Creative

37 Lets work on CASE STUDY

Decision Making Process 38 Rational Decision Making Process Evaluate Alternatives Develop Alternatives Identify/Define Problems Sense Effects Choose the Best Alternative Implement the Decision Monitor the Implementation

I Diagnose Problem/ Define the Objective 39 "A problem properly defined is a problem half solved. “ Define the problem Identify the decision objectives (what will happen when the problem has been solved) Identify the causes of problem To whom is it a problem? What kind of problem is it (attitude, understanding, competence, …)? Has this ever happened before? What is the potential magnitude of the

II Develop Alternatives to Solve the Problem 40 This is a brainstorming step to generate alternatives, not to evaluate them. Brainstorming suggests a range of possible solutions. Listing options (Thinking creatively) - the alternatives to reach Pokhara? - Nobody says “no” Nobody says “That will never work” Nobody says “That has already been tried …”

III Evaluate Alternatives 41 Realistic to Organisation Goals Helpful to Solve the Problem Timing Resources Acceptability Feasibility Risk

IV Choose the Best Alternatives 42 Solution should be satisfactory rather than ideal. There are four criteria for choosing the best from among the possible solutions: 1. The risk - weigh the risks of each course of action against the expected gains. 2. Economy of effort - which will give the greatest results with the least effort? 3. Timing- situation in the organisation. 4. Limitations of resources - vision, competence, skill, etc. of staff who carryout decisions. Do we have resources to carryout decisions?

V Implement the Decision 43 Putting a chosen solution into effect requires a carefully drawn-up action Critical Required SNplan. Activities / By Actions Whom When Resource (s) Success Factor (s)

VI Monitor the Decision 44 Set dates for monitoring. Who will monitor? How and when? Is the solution effective? Are we still satisfied? Are there parts that need reworking? In the light of new data received, do we need to make any changes? Has there been any permanent improvement? Are we learning from experience? What new problems have we identified?

Making Real life Decision Makers must cope with: Inadequate information about the nature of the 45 problem and its possible solutions, The lack of resources to acquire more complete information, Distorted perceptions of the information available, The inability of the human memory to retain large amount of information, and The limits of their own intelligence to determine correctly which alternative is best. - Herbert Simon

46 Which problem to solve? � What is a right decision? � External and internal environment � Individual's values, capabilities, biasness / prejudice, experience � Influencing factors � Conflicting information � For some “thinking” is not “work” �

Six Cs of Decision making 47 Construct Compile Collect Compare Consider Commit

Personal trap in decision making 48 Not willing to come out of comfort zone Fear and biasness in thinking and analysis Getting lost in minutia Seeking unanimous approval Willing to decide beyond authority

System trap in decision making 49 Too little, inaccurate or wrong information Overlook viable alternatives or waste time considering alternatives beyond realistic prospects Not following the six Cs Failure to clearly define the expected results Worst of all, failure to reach a decision

System thinking is crucial “Maybe pushing on that wall to the left will give some space. ” 50

“Oops!” 51

Considerations Priority Ethics Standards Implementation Teams and Network Technicalities Indecisiveness and Decline Diversity Risk propensity

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54 Lord Krishna introspects the basis on which we make our decisions. mp 4

55 “WE SELDOM HAVE TIME FOR THE IMPORTANT BECAUSE WE ARE WORKING ON THE IMMEDIATE AND THE IMMEDIATE IS SELDOM THE IMPORTANT” - Peter Drucker

56 “Think Laterally, and be creative. ”