1 Gentrification PLAN 6573 February 28 2021 2

1 Gentrification PLAN 6573 February 28, 2021

2 Define The process by which central urban neighborhoods that have undergone disinvestments and economic decline experience a reversal, reinvestment, and the in-migration of a relatively well-off, middleand upper middle-class population. p. 198. Hammel and Wyly (1996) define gentrification as: The replacement of low-income, inner-city working class residents by middle- or upperclass households, either through the market for existing housing or demolition to make way for new upscale housing construction. p. 250.

3 Explaining Gentrification 1. Which model of neighborhood change (filtering/ecology, political economy, social capital) do you think best explains the occurrence of gentrification?

4 Cause Demand or Supply Ecological/filtering or Demand Post industrial city Demography Supply or Political economy Rent Gap Capital seeking higher profits Social cultural Changing tastes

5 Why Gentrification? Later Marriage Source: US National Center for Health Statistics

6 Why Gentrification? Later childbearing Source: US National Center for Health Statistics

7 Why Gentrification? Economic Changes Urban economy shifted from manufacturing to post-industrial economy Rise of FIRE industries High Tech Engineering Management Consulting Biotechnology Importance of access to central city

8 Why Gentrification? Cultural Changes Increased racial tolerance Appreciation for older, walkable neighborhoods

9 Why Gentrification? Decline in auto use among 25 -30 year olds Auto Use 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Daily Auto Miles Driven Daily Auto Trips 1995 Source: Noreen Mc. Donald, 2015 2001 2009

10 Why Gentrification? Increase in non-Automobile Travel among 25 -30 year olds Increase in non-Automobile Travel 0. 6 0. 5 0. 4 0. 3 0. 2 0. 1 0 Transit 1995 Source: Noreen Mc. Donald, 2015 2001 2009 Walk/bike

11 Why Gentrification? Decline in Crime Source: FBI

12 What should we do about Gentrification? Inner City Decline Led to declining population in many cities Shriveling of tax base Exacerbated racial segregation and poverty concentration Property Abandonment Lack of commerce and amenities Gentrification reverses these trends What’s not to like?

13 What are the implications of different causes? Ecological/Social cultural Demand side Doesn’t make sense to “stop” gentrification Political Economy Local groups should combat using political confrontation Cities could try to direct capital to less contested sites/type of investments

14 Prevalence Gentrification as anomaly? 1970 s-1980 Islands of renewal in seas of decay Restructuring of urban space 1990 s-? Islands of decay in seas of renewal CRA HOPE VI Downtown booms

15 Research on Gentrification How does gentrification impact low income neighborhoods Displacement Class and Race Segregation Economic Mobility Views of Residents themselves

16 Gentrification and Displacement in NYC Compared Residential mobility in 7 gentrifying Neighborhoods to residential mobility elsewhere Poor, less educated less likely to move

17 Other Studies Vigdor (2002) found lower mobility rates in gentrifying neighborhoods in Boston Mc. Kinnish et al. found little evidence of displacement using synthetic cohort approach We consider four cohorts: 1990 2000 Cohort 1: 20– 29 30– 39 and in housing unit for at least 10 years Cohort 2: 30– 39 40– 49 and in housing unit for at least 10 years Cohort 3: 40– 49 50– 59 and in housing unit for at least 10 years Cohort 4: 50– 59 60– 69 and in housing unit for at least 10 years Dependent variable is change in cohort size Interacted dummy variable for each cohort with gentrification indicator

18 How to Explain In-movers of higher socioeconomic status in gentrifying neighborhoods Average rent burden 62% for poor households in gentrifying neighborhoods

19 Extending the earlier study National sample Uses census tracts Turnover in gentrifying neighborhoods is compared to turnover in potentially gentrifying neighborhoods that did not gentrify Displacement in gentrifying neighborhoods is compared to displacement in potentially gentrifying neighborhoods that did not gentrify

20 Extending the earlier study Logistic Regression Dep. Variable = Moved (Displaced) Ind. Variable = Resided in gentrifying neighborhood Controlled for predictors of mobility (displacement) Also examined who moved into gentrifying neighborhoods

21 Gentrification and Displacement National Study Equivalent rates of turnover Modest rates of displacement Poor, blacks, non-college graduates less likely to move into gentrifying tracts Whites and higher income associated with a greater likelihood of moving into gentrifying tracts Movers less likely to move within gentrifying neighborhoods

22 Gentrification and Neighborhood Diversity Does gentrification lead to more homogenous neighborhoods? Displacement and the influx of the gentry lead to gentrified enclaves—exchange poor homogenous neighborhood for rich ones OR The low income population, while perhaps decreasing after the arrival of the gentry, stabilizes or decreases as a very slow pace— increased diversity

23 Gentrification and Neighborhood Diversity Measure diversity using the nominal entropy score for race Reaches maximum value when all races are present in a tract Measure diversity using the index of ordinal variation for education and income Reaches maximum value when the neighborhood's class distribution is as bimodal as possible (e. g. 50% poor and 50% rich). Higher values mean more diversity

24 Measuring Gentrification Wyly and Hammel 22 Cities(2005) 1. Based on fieldwork, census data, interviews with local experts 2. Compare to other central city tracts Freeman (2005) Potentially Gentrifying Those that did not gentrify are nongentrifying

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28 Diversity: A precursor to Gentrification? Examined Diversity scores in the decades preceding onset of gentrification For education; gentrifying neighborhoods started out slightly less diverse but became relatively more so For income; gentrifying neighborhoods started out slightly more diverse and remained so For race; gentrifying neighborhoods started similarly to nongentrifying neighborhoods Overall evidence is mixed

29 Study of Philadelphia Resident (Hwang and Ding 2016) Credit scores of residents who remain in their neighborhoods is positively associated with gentrification. Low- credit score (<580) residents and older residents (65 years or older) had the biggest gains Vulnerable residents in gentrifying neighborhoods generally do not have significantly higher moving rates

30 Study of Philadelphia Resident (Hwang and Ding 2016) Low credit score residents moving from gentrifying neighborhoods largely end up in neighborhoods that are similar to those that they left Majority of movers from gentrifying neighborhoods stay in Philadelphia

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32 What do the folks say? Qualitative Approach Semi-structured interviews Participant Observation Study sites Harlem Clinton Hill, Brooklyn

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34 What should we do? Positives Increased wealth for homeowners Improved amenities and services Collective efficacy Negatives Specter of displacement/loss of affordability Conflict over Norms Resentment: improvements for “them”

35 http: //www. msnbc. com/the-reid-report/watch/spike-lee-rantsparks-gentrification-dialogue-173619779954

36 Discussion Questions 2. Some of what I have written on gentrification might be interpreted as optimistic. Have I been too optimisitic in my assessment of gentrification? Why or why not? 2. How does gentrification differ from community development? Are the two mutually exclusive? 3. From the perspective of residents of poor neighborhoods, what should the policy response to gentrification be?

37 Why should we care? Security: people shouldn’t fear for losing their home Everyone should have access to decent neighborhood Remedies for past injustices to poor people/neighborhoods Preserve mixed income neighborhoods

38 Planning Strategy Affordable Housing Strengthen Community

39 Affordable Housing Market Rate Housing Can mean more affordable housing Or Less Gentrification Pressure, as per our Filtering Model

40 Affordability and displacement Promote affordable homeownership Subsidized mortgages Down payment assistance Tax relief to prevent exorbitant property tax burdens

41 Affordability and displacement Targeted subsidies Inclusionary zoning New development includes affordable housing Density bonus offsets costs of subsidy

42 Affordability and displacement Targeted subsidies Tax Abatement Program Property owner develops affordable housing Property owners receive tax abatement in return Tax Increment Financing Gentrification increases property values Gentrification increases property taxes Increments in property taxes set aside to fund affordable housing

43 Affordability and displacement Targeted subsidies Preferences for LIHTC in once affordable neighborhoods experiencing price inflation Qualified Allocation Plan can be modified to target such neighborhoods In-Place Vouchers could be set aside for neighborhoods experiencing rapid rent inflation

44 Addressing Cynicism toward “powers that be” Neighborhood improvements for “them” Cynical toward gentrification and redevelopment despite CDCs Community mobilizing vs. community development Bricks and mortar development alone may engender cynicism

45 Benefits of Mobilization Community mobilizing Galvanizes residents Empowers residents Residents’ will understand the political economy of neighborhoods Gentrification and redevelopment in the context of mobilization is preferable

46 What should we do? For communities that have experienced severe disinvestment gentrification can be a boon Policy Aim to maintain socioeconomic diversity Redistribute resources from those with more to those in need Tap beneficiaries of gentrification to assist those harmed Targeted subsidies best way to accomplish these goals

47 What have we learned? Gentrification reverses trends in disinvestment But many fear the loss of their communities Gentrification as a double-edged sword Negative reactions may stem, in part: From the feeling that changes are for “them” Changing Norms

48 What have we learned? In distressed neighborhoods gentrification can benefit longterm residents Increased wealth for homeowners Improved amenities and services

49 What have we learned? Goals Maintain diversity in gentrifying neighborhoods Address cynicism and fears of being “pushed out” Strategy Target affordable housing to gentrifying neighborhoods Mobilize residents to enable inclusion